Member Info for Luckenbach

It’s already less than two months to the AGM so technically they could present the meeting invitation anytime soon when possible. My guess is that if it will land at the end of the week after the 13th of Marc CEO/CFO presentation, then we’ll know what’s the market confidence in terms of SP for the possible RI. If it comes earlier then no RI but a limited one possible anytime? But let’s wait and see. The earlier the invitation lands the sooner we know if we have it in hands or pants.

Of course there can be any other kind of good reasons for any other outcome and order of proceedings.

Strictly, snipers prey

They all need……Traumakine

…if SNG belong to that list too?

The 14th was updated to 13th!

Now they have at least three weeks between the presentation and the AGM. The invitation to the AGM needs to be presented at least three weeks before the meeting and now it can be presented even two days after the presentation.

Do you mean they would get new shares with about the same price you can buy today?

Actually the situation only needs that Faron and IPF get a reasonable resolution, some positive news from clinical studies, FDA, e.g.. Big stakeholders buying shares with modest volumes and rising prices. Then RI with a nice ratio including free shares or alternatively news about partnering or M&A. Would that be too much asked?

It may well be that they had mutual understanding until “something got delayed and it blew up in their faces”. Unfortunate situation where the risk profile got too high and IPF had to act. It can still be that both parties can agree on a new deal to continue. It’s in the nature of IPF’s business to try to get higher gains with higher risk.

The other reality can be that covenants are covenants and somebody fully legitimately turned the lights off. None is gaining here and the damage is a reality.

We are aimlessly in a situation where sudden opportunities for benefit open up for some, down-righting the “obligation” to act with a new playbook

Some thought correct or not

They may well agree some kind of a resolution with IPF but to get there they need to have a BATNA which belongs to basics in negotiation skills. RI is one of Faron’s alternatives in negotiations and that is why it was published, to be plausible (still they can have other alternatives too). Anything else can happen too but we begged for additional info and we got it and even more between the lines.

Buying shares now before if/when they announce RI or afterwards is of course the question? Like somebody said here, if you believe in Bex and you have money to buy shares and participate RI, then you’ll win or lose as sure as Bex is gonna win or lose. And it gets even better if they announce a nice ratio and additional free shares( not promising). If the sp would hit rock bottom before they announce RI, the question would be if RI could yield enough at all to cover the liabilities? An other plan would be needed? The best thing here in between would be any other good news!

(BATNA - a Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement)

They are in, Fjarde AP Fonden 3,5%.

Btw. Bayer and Orion have a collaborative partnership in the development and commercialization of the prostate cancer drug darolutamide (marketed under the brand name Nubeqa)

Bayer holds global commercial rights to darolutamide. Orion is entitled to receive annually tiered royalties on global darolutamide sales, with a total annual royalty rate of approximately 20%, including product sales to Bayer.

Bayer is present at the Faron board.

A fourth alternative is that the very biggest owners form an alliance together with the founders and announces they have to secure Bex future and buy the company out from NAS and AIM with apologies. The biggest 100 owners have 87% of the shares, maybe even more behind the curtains so maybe not so impossible to manage.

Good thing still is that the sp is holding. As a result of this all we will at least get a description for the reasons of this episode and the situation of the company in overall, I assume.

No big amounts of shares sold today unless behind the curtains. Creates confidence.

We all know what happened but not why?

The thing is that Faron have not yet given us any explanation. If they were in deep sh*t, they should have told us. So at least they are negotiating the way out. Alternatively the counterpart could be in deep sh*t so negotiations were useless. If the counterpart were busted then you couldn’t open this lock I am afraid. Two successful solutions in hands like share-issue twice the borrowed sum plus at least one month expenses. The second alternative is they’ll make some kind of a partnering or acquisition deal with BP. A third alternative could be swapping shares with a solvent smaller company to continue the story. This could be Orion in Finland.

Wouldn’t be surprised if BP makes now an offer with cash and own shares. It might’ve been in preparation a while and now because of this episode it will be accelerated. A part of the price maybe compensated with own shares.

Maybe Traumakine plunged into the value discussion and got various stakeholders to give a second thought and here we are. Have to remember that Poolbeg brought a third party opinion on the CAR-T related CRS market value. This is of course something that needs to be considered when presenting acceptance of an acquisition offer to shareholders.

This could be a defensive operation if some “hostile” instance would be attempting to acquire a certain proportion of Faron shares to drive their own interests or to join others later to form an alliance that has to make an offer to buy all shares when suitable?

So Faron and IPF can use covenants as a reason to drop the sp. Why? If an imagined hostile party was financing their acquisition efforts with loans and using Faron shares to guarantee the loans. With the sp -40% they can be in difficulties with their own covenants?

There can be various expectations for the future of the company and who knows the window is open now for any attempt before deals done?

I may be the second last here.

For sure Dracula, and CAR-T has still a lot to do to be all day treatment everywhere and it applies gene technology being relatively new and immature market. Maybe the announcement is a nice and good willing provocation.

They need the market and maybe they have a nice candidate.

Btw. I don’t understand what is the value of their announcement? Making noise in a field where others are already proceeding.

NM49 is a multi-specific antibody designed to activate tumor associated macrophage phagocytosis developed by Numab AG. Below their announcement about co-development agreement with Ono Pharmaceutical. Is that more like a competitor for CD47 than Bex, anyway just an example of how Numab will solve their endeavor towards the market.

https://www.numab.com/wp-content/uploads/240209_PRR_Numab-Therapeutics-Announces-Co-Development-Agreemtent-ND049_PRESS-RELEASE.pdf

Faron’s investigational intravenous (IV) interferon beta-1a therapy, Traumakine, is being developed in collaboration with the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, Washington, for the development of neurotoxicity related to cytokine release syndrome associated with CAR-T therapy.

Just wondering how big is Faron seeing their potential market? Poolbeg Pharma is seeing a nice market opportunity in CRS.

“12 February 2024 - Poolbeg Pharma (AIM: POLB, OTCQB: POLBF, 'Poolbeg' or the 'Company'), a biopharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialisation of innovative medicines targeting diseases with a high unmet medical need, today announces that independent research[i] [ii] conducted on behalf of Poolbeg confirms a >$10 billion market opportunity for POLB 001 in Cancer Immunotherapy-Induced CRS as an orally delivered preventative therapy. Cancer immunotherapies have been approved in rare and orphan blood cancers and so the Company can see potential for POLB 001 in one or more of these cancer types. POLB 001 in cancer immunotherapy-induced CRS will be developed alongside Poolbeg's existing portfolio of assets including its influenza programme; its AI drug discovery programmes; and oral delivery of GLP-1 for obesity and other metabolic diseases….

 

…The size and attractiveness of this market has encouraged the Company, as the field of cancer immunotherapies, including CAR-T and BsAb, is burgeoning and is expected to grow to US$100bn - US$140bn[iii] by 2030. CRS occurs in the majority of CAR-T and BsAb treatments frequently impacting >70%[iv] of patients and cannot be predicted. All grades of CRS can lead to extended hospital stays, causing an estimated US$5.5bn[v] of hospitalisation costs to healthcare systems, and further indirect costs through patient treatment and follow up.”

He sounded like having some offerings and success granted?

I think he said 50b mentioning combined annual sales of all PD1 blockers together. Doubling that means another 50b. That would be the added value due Bex, turning the 13% of those getting benefit into 26%. If Bex could generate all that a year the value of the company would be about three times the margin? That margin depends on the partnering agreement. And what if the 26% were 52%%

Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1039908/faron-pharmaceuticals-outlines-groundbreaking-work-in-cancer-treatment-presentation-1039908.html?rel=scroll

Sax, that’s great news itself.