Member Info for LTbeliever

Given that they need appx 400k per 6 months, how much they would need for option 2 (Phase 1 completion)?

Ironically, 0.65p was around the SP level that Nick Sl sold down some of his stake, back in mid-August.

@Bobber, the issue is that with annual cash burn of +3mln and a GMargin of 50% (appx), APTA needs Revenues of 6mln p.a. just to B/E.

Last FY (to 30 June 2025) they had Revenues of 1.2mln? They need to push things forward, fast.

Does anyone know if the Co paid any fees for its FDA ODD application? Fee payment or not has a bearing on the application's processing, as per below.

"FDA activities that are delayed or suspended :

Acceptance of new drug or device applications that require user fees (FDA cannot legally accept fees during a shutdown)"

https://jurislawgroup.com/how-the-2025-government-shutdown-impacts-fda-approvals-and-usda-food-inspections/

All very positive for 2026 IMO;

"Build on Qatar success with new CTM projects currently being evaluated in other cities and industrial plants;'

'Board has set a group gross margin target of 60% underpinned by LX cost reductions and continued growth in reagent sales. Plans to achieve this are being developed and will be presented to shareholders in due course.'' (on Sales of 5-6 mln in 2026, and opex of say 1.5mln, this 'd give a Net Profit of 2mln?); I am still expecting min Sales of 3mln for 2025.

"Strong progress with PFAS mobile testing and Pathogen Detector prototype development, opening new market opportunities."; hopefully some licensing income in 2026?

"Board has decided to focus on investing in infrastructure and product development during the next 12 months to accelerate long-term sales growth, profitability, and cash generation. The Group looks forward to updating shareholders on the execution of this growth strategy."

Not long to wait IMO, just a few months before the Mkt wakes up.

And once someone has spent 15-20k on LX (I assume that the distributor adds a hefty margin), they're abound to use it as much as they can, to have the cost amortised asap (thus increasing reagent sales); and we have the November exhibitions (SA and Bahrein) so it's quite possible to expect more CTM installations by Avanceon, having Doha as the showcase (albeit in 2026). GMargins also have huge upside, lots of scope for improvement.

Very useful/transparent numbers; the only disappointment IMO is the low GM on LXs, but it'd already be rising due to econ of scale.

So, 26k reagent use from 3 CTMs gives 16kpa (min) per CTM; for H2 2025, we have 30 CTMs in total, thus 480k (min - and 1mln in 2026); add another 120k (min) from LXs etc, we have 600k in H2 (@70% GM) or, 420k Gross profit from Reagents (A).

We estimated for H2 about 20LXs sold pm, so min. 100 LXs - low ball estimate of 10k per LX gives 1mln for H2; assuming 25% GM, gives 250k GProfit (B);

Opex 110k pm (appx), which equals A + B above; therefore, the Co will B/E in H2 in a worst case scenario, with no further cash burn.

In a best scenario, whatever Gross Profit it makes from - not yet counted - C) SRB sales D) FX sales E) higher GMargin on LXs (target +50%) will equal Net Profit;

Cash of 585k plus 198k from Doha soon, means Cash will increase further if we have Gross profits from C and D above, minus more spending on the PD detector (to APTA etc) and the PFAS equipment development.

IMO, the results are positive, the Co has plenty of cash and is already at B/E (as a min.), despite the very low GM on LX (which is bound to go up), as production ramps up). DYOR, GLA!

Good news, with more RNSs b4 Xmas on UK sales of XF3 and XC1 OEM Agreement; plus, cash burn is down;

"These payments together with tight cost controls and lower second half outgoings, have resulted in a cash balance of c£0.8m at the end of September. With further inflows expected during the latter part of Q4, the Group will remain cash positive for 2025."

"So far in 2025 we have seen the first sales of Yilmak's Xeros enabled denim processing machine, with multiple orders expected; received an LOI from a major Chinese appliance manufacturer to develop our internal microfibre filter, XF1; secured a brand partnership for our external microfibre filter, the XF3, with Russell Hobbs, with plans to distribute the unit into UK retailers through Product Care Group ("PCG") before the year end; agreed launch plans with Europe's leading consumer and electronics retailer and a leading global OEM to launch branded XF3 units across Europe; and excitedly, one of the four leading global OEMs currently in technical verification for Laundry Care (XC1) is anticipated to move to a paid for agreement imminently."

Bad news, 2025 Revenues will undershoot - hence IMO why no SP rise;

"together with the other timing issues which have pushed some revenue into 2026, means that the Group will report revenue for the year ending 31 December 2025 below current expectations."

So, SP should rise once Russell Hobbs deal is closed, plus the OEM "imminent" agreement; a bit more patience I guess is needed. GLA!

IMO, the Board keeps them informed of the situation; SP will rise once an RNS confirms beyond doubt that the 800k cash is going up (due to Revenues coming in), rather than down; it seems that the Mkt is still wary about a possible fund raise?

1.4mln 30 April, not March, but the essence is still the same; 600k cash burned from May-Sept i.e. 100k per month on average (starting from 300k, so positive cash flow is quite attainable as we speak). DYOR

Actually, a correction is needed to my earlier post; 1.4mln cash on 30 March, 1.6mln cash burned from Jan-June 2025, 800k left today; assuming 300k per month burned in H1 (on average, as amount should be declining month by month), this means (again, pls check my maths!) that from:

April to June 2025, appx 700-800k cash was burned; leaving a cash b/ce on 30 June - IMO - of 600-700k. What about July-Sept? Cash hasn't "dropped" during this period, right?

To me, this means that - a) cash is now being added on a monthly basis b) or, worst case scenario, the Co is cash-neutral and will soon be cash flow positive. Very good news!!

They had 1.4mln cash eoMarch, 6 months later they have 800k, so only burned 600k cash in 6 months? Am I correct? If yes, that's possibly quite positive as "imminent" (?) cash flows might negate any further fund raises.

Should definitely have some updates as Mgt has been - on average - been issuing an Oper. update every couple of months or so; I suspect there must be a reason (can't think what it could be, though) why they didn't "lump" the Doha CTM's update - for the sake of 2 days - together with the Interims; at the end of the day, Co had already announced that the CTMs project would be finished by Q3 2025, so nothing new there.

And for the benefit of newer investors, "The assets broadly comprise equipment for the laboratory-based manufacturing of bio-reagents used in related water testing equipment currently based at the Company's York laboratory and include all IP and rights to the related water testing equipment including LX, FX and Continuous Toxic Measuring ("CTM") machines and water membrane technology."

https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/deepverge-plc--dvrg/update-exclusivity-agreement-with-microsaic/7954316

It'd be good to sell the water membrane tech for a decent sum of money, if we can't use it.

Correction - the 27 CTMs were provided to Avanceon (not sale, but a serviced-model) for 1.4 mln.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/deepverge-plc--dvrg/modern-water-monitoring-systems-deal-worth-1-4m/7034884

FWIW, from an update almost 1 year ago: "The end user, Kahramaa (Qatar General Electricity and Water Corporation), is currently undergoing training to operate the CTMs and final acceptance is expected soon after. The total value of this contract to the Company is €571k and the Company has invoiced 80% of the total amount in two tranches for work completed. A second phase of the project is already under discussion for 2025, which could mean the purchase of more CTMs for new sites in Qatar."

https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/metir-plc--met/operational-update/8572029

The 571k (456k now almost collected, rest split over 3 years) WAS JUST for servicing and equipping the 27 CTMs, NOT for their actual SALE (which was appx 2mln for a 5 year leasing if I remember off the top of my head); this means that if MET announces this year another CTM contract in DOHA ('"2nd phase"), it'd be for a lot more than 500k. Let's see what tomorrow brings, GLA!

Https://www.gcre.wales/press-releases/designing-tomorrows-railway/

FWIW, TED was shortlisted for a grant - phase 2 - of 305k (half the current mkt cap?) in Jan 2024 (go to bottom of article/list); June 2024 AFS show a grant of 20k or so (phase 1), so these funds will show in June 2025 AFS; so TED will have already invested the 305k, plus its own money and finished the project sometime in early calendar 2025 (as also advised in the 2 min video, mentioning Feb 2025). Unipart has already dedicated a special section on its website for this TED product, so one expects that it's already heavily promoting it globally.

Obviously, many PIs got "burnt" last July but, at this SP level and the - IMO - expected turnaround in Revenues and CFlow, the upside far exceeds any downside risk. DYOR

Well, I hope your bad luck turns on Tuesday; after 150mln spent and many false dawns, eventually the sun will rise - will it be next week?

From the interims update 31 July: "This strong revenue performance was driven by increased demand for MicroTox® LX instruments, which in turn supported a growing volume of reagent sales, representing £155,000 during the Period. In addition, revenue of £386,000 from the Group's Qatar project and the deployment of 27 Continuous Toxicity Monitors (CTMs) is being recognised in 2025. The Qatar project is due for completion by the end of the third quarter following the successful integration of upgraded software to record CTM data from the fully installed units. "

So, 155k in reagent sales in Jan-June 2025, WITHOUT any sales from the 27 CTMs that will be working 24/7, and with minimal sales of MTox LXs; imagine reagent sales in 2026 (+80% margins), when we will have full contribution from Doha CTMs, a lot more LXs operating and FXs as well; easily 1-1.5 million!

Good launch pad for 2026; Doha has plenty of potential, plus Bahrein, UAE and maybe Saudi?

198k in 2 months, seems we can wait as there is available cash already. Looking forward to Tuesday's RNS, GLA!

A good omen then, as we already have a CEO :)