Member Info for LTbeliever

Thanks SMJ; just a couple of points;

a)IRON's share of the DSM plant is now 50% (since March 2025), not 25%; plus, if SABLE is an empty shell, I wouldn't be surprised if IRON took it stake back to 100% (against a one off payment to SABLE); SABLE's role in the JV was to buy the product (offtake was for 500t/m initially), rising to 1000t/m later.

b) prior to Daenemeng taking over LAPON mining, the deal with SABLE was for IRON to "sell" the iron ore to the JV DSM Plant at cost+20% margin; now that Daenemeng will be running the mine, we can assume that the cost will be lower than what IRON could ever achieve and IRON will still be making a cut from the mine sales. So IMO, at full capacity (27.000 t/m) in a few weeks, the annual profit for IRON will be much higher; hopefully, we will get more numbers with the Audited FS in November or Dec, or earlier if a deal is made for the running of the JV DSM Plant by a specialised operator.

Anyone knows the price of DSM magnetite (appx)? As per the below JSE release by SABLE (early August), the DSM plant must have produced - MIN - 2000 tons in (July?) Aug, Sept, probably October and more from November onwards by Daenemeng.

https://senspdf.jse.co.za/documents/SENS_20250811_S508750.pdf

"Operational Update – Lapon Plant

Shareholders are advised that the Company’s Lapon Plant is currently operational on a limited basis, producing approximately 10% of its full production capacity. The Company expects the plant to ramp up production progressively and anticipates achieving full operational capacity within the next two

months."

If not mistaken, the timeframe would depend on the technical assessment, currently conducted, by each of the 3 others? Plus, internal company politics, approval processes etc. IMO

Lack of innovation" by Wpool may mean they need XSG's tech? Just a thought.

Https://ar.whirlpoolcorp.com/Whirlpool_2024_AR.pdf

27% of Sales was in Laundry products, i.e. appx $4bln

IMO, the clue that led to Whirlpool was "A global leader selling around seven million domestic washing machines per year, operating predominantly across North and Latin America". Does GE sell these numbers all over the Americas?

To conclude, if I was a Warrant Holder, I'd probably sell the shares at 0.08-0.09 (that's why the SP probably crashed on 7 Oct, when it hit 0.08), get my original investment back, and then just sit on the Warrants waiting for the right time (for me) to exercise them. So IMO, resistance will be at around 0.08 appx - if we can clear this hurdle, then we'll be looking at 0.1+ next year.

Sdad, re the Warrants, as per last year's RNS,

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/IRON/16325m-fundraise-proposed-capital-reorganisation-w2l517xlnz1ut2t.html

"· Investor Warrants to be issued to recipients of New Ordinary Shares pursuant to the transaction on a 1-for-1 basis, with each Investor Warrant exercisable at 0.072 pence (being a 100% premium to the Issue Price) for a period of three years." 1 year has elapsed, 2 to go. Normally, the value of the Warrants is in their optionality i.e. you can wait to convert them until the last possible moment. If the SP hits 0.075 in 3 months, why rush to convert, when I can wait another year or more (thus, not committing my capital in 3 months) and convert - hopefully - when the SP is higher? The only reason to convert sooner rather than later would be if I expected the SP to start dropping again, soon after it exceeds the XP (Exercise price).

Thus, there are appx 9bln o/s Warrants, expiring in Nov. 2027; if the SP hits 0.072, its mkt cap will be (16bln shares) around 11.5mln and possibly on a rising trend. If all the Warrants were exercised simultaneously (they will not because it "pays" to wait) i.e the worst case scenario, there 'd be 6.5 mln of cash received and - ceteris paribus - the mkt cap 'd rise to 18mln (and a dilution of appx 36%. In practice, Warrants should be exercised gradually by each holder, depending on their outlook about the SP trajectory of IRON but, definitely, exercised by Nov. 2027. All IMO

Maybe your mate, Justin? :)))))

Tnx Bsher; yes, IRON is way undervalued (only 10% up since the 7 Oct RNS) but the Mkt still needs 1-2 RNSs with numbers showing that cash flow has started and will be steadily growing; then, the SP can easily jump to 0.08 and beyond, absorbing sales from those who bought last year at 0.036.IMO

And in my logic, IRON would not say they expect to announce the DMS Plant Operator "in the very near term" without tying both ends up; I mean, they have the production/supply deal with DM wrapped up, with ROM starting to flow in 2-3 weeks, therefore within this period they should - at least - announce a deal (if not DMS magnetite production too) with the Plant Operator too; the Operator would want assurance that, before taking the Plant over, the supply of material from lapon is all but guaranteed - IMO.

We will know before eoNovember, if not earlier IMO - GLA, DYOR!

No idea but we're getting close! Oct 7th RNS said "within 30 days" for production, so maybe in 1-2 weeks we will have news from (DM) Daemeneng Minerals; BTW, did you know that DM is owned by Afrimat? The below is from Google:

"Daemaneng Minerals operates the Demaneng iron ore mine in South Africa, which has shown significant profitability and operational success since its acquisition by Afrimat in 2016. The Demaneng mine, previously known as Diro Iron Ore, was acquired by Afrimat in 2016. Afrimat invested over R450 million to revamp the mine, transforming it from a struggling operation into a profitable venture. Operational Success: Since the acquisition, the mine has become a key asset for Afrimat, contributing significantly to its diversification strategy into bulk commodities. The mine's production capacity is expected to increase from 600,000 tons per year to about one million tons annually."

https://www.afrimat.co.za/about-us/geographic-footprint/

Afrimat is huge, runs many mines and the 20.000 tons of IRON's Lapon mine is "peanuts" when added to its current production as above - therefore for DM it will be easy IMO selling the ROM production from Lapon, i.e. IRON will get immediate cashflow, with no expenses incurred on its part.

Definitely a WIN-WIN, https://www.afrimat.co.za/contract-mining-services/

https://www.africaoutlookmag.com/mining/afrimat-mining-services-pty-ltd-an-integrated-approach-to-excellence

1408, re your "All these large trades/transfers/tr1’s are indicative of something in the works. Question is, what? Or maybe even, who?!", I estimate (very roughly) that up to 5% of the shares (25-30mln) have "disappeared" from the Share register (just adding up from the last few TR1s); obviously, they have not been sold off in the open market so, IMO, someone has agreed to buy them off off market? If an entity bought +5% than a TR1'd follow soon; but if 2 entities bought eg 2.5% each, then no TR1 needs to be announced.

In any case, if somebody is getting hold of 5% of XSG, one way or another, I don't see this as a negative; it'd be nice vote of confirdence if it was Whirlpool but I think NOT, as this would put off the other Big 3 manufacturers.

IMO by next February (trading update for FY) we will have heard more about microfilter sales, denim developments, Georges' expansion in France and some other news from the various collaborations; whether the Co raises a small amount (Viz-a-viz its mkt cap)for further expansion, this will only serve to enhance the Mkt's belief in XSG's growth story.

Well, newsflow will do the talking; Microfilters to hit the shops "by year end" so we'd get some news soon; how the SP behaves in between, anyone's guess.

If a 2nd "Whirlpool" type RNS hits as well, that'd be a bonus.

1408, do we know where Justin based his "5mln - min - cash call estimate"? IMO, it's way too high.

Co had 800k cash on 30 Sept. Looking at cash burn from Apr-Sept 2025 (1.6mln opex) implies a monthly outflow of, say 250k pm. This is the average, not the maximum and it's safe to say that (see numbers below) cash burn is at a declining trajectory (much less than 120k IMO); so on a monthly basis, now or soon, we may be quite close to cash B/E.

At 20 May's trading update for Y/E 30 March 2025, Co said "Net cash outflow from operations reduced by 4% to £4.5m (2023: £4.7m), cash at 30 April 2025 £1.4m and month on month cashflow breakeven 'in sight' during 2025". Hence, last year, Co was burning almost 400k pm, whereas since May 1st (to 30 Sept 2025) it burned 600k (1400-800k); so, one can reasonably say that the actual monthly cash burn was around 120k pm (600/5); actually, it'd be less because, logically, cash burn in May-June must have been higher than July-Aug-Sept (IMO), assuming that each month the Co's income slightly rises.

Now we have the Whirlpool licensing agreement, which is paid-for (so Co's expenses will drop), with 3 more to follow; by Xmas the microfilter will be in the shops under the Russell Hobbs brand (more income); we also know that Georges is increasing its laundry service to French state personnel (steadily increasing income) and the Pakistan denim manufacturer is also soon starting usage of the Co's materials.

Therefore, WHY raise 5mln? it could raise eg 500k to stock up the shops with microfilters but this would be a POSITIVE signal to the market IMO.

Just for comparison purposes, if any of you had/have invested in KP2 (a potash - future - mine owner), its SP has risen from 0.40p to almost 4p (now 150mln cap, from less than 12mln) over the past few months; there is no mine (if funds are obtained, there will be in 4 years appx) yet, just an agreement with a Chinese firm to build/operate the mine; NPV of the project is around GBP 1 bln.

IRON has now a mine in operation, soon producing net cash for the Co and this is just one of various value-enhancing projects; my point? eventually the SP will extricate itself from the abyss it has been languishing over the last 2-3 years. With a bit of luck (Q1 2026), even Basher will be partying with us in our cosy "room" :).

And BTW, the bursting of the bubble in AI, Crypto, US Tech etc (maybe gold too) may not necessarily be bad for basic metals-emerging market stocks. Have a nice weekend all!

Why raise now so much, instead of eg 500k if/whenever is needed, given the newsflow expected over the next Quarter?

Big question is what "very near term" equates to? Days or weeks?

"Discussions and negotiations are ongoing and progressing positively, with both parties confident that a mutually acceptable agreement for a Plant Operator Agreement will be reached in the very near term, which should enable and facilitate a natural transition towards the finalisation of the broader JV agreement with Sable Platinum Holdings (Pty) Ltd."

Just IMO, any RFI by the FDA might have come earlier than 70 days? Dan sounded quite bullish about "news any day now", wouldn't he prefer to cover himself had he been aware of a possible last minute RFI, given 20 more days to the 1st "deadline" (i.e. in case of no RFI that might delay the approval)?