Member Info for LTbeliever

Non-tradeable until a) issued in 10 days appx b) you pay for them. Currently, these are just a Right (like a Warrant) that you are entitled to, by virtue of owing the "main" shares (divided by 17.5 for the "conditional" shares).

Now that this BB is slowly waking up and it's not just Sdad, theBasher and I, on here :), pls have a look at my analysis and comment/add to it;

7 Oct RNS, we got the figures for the mine operation i.e. GBP345.000 pm over 5 years (opex+capex), with monthly production unknown.

From past info, we know that targeted mine capacity (before any potential upgrades by Daenemeng) was 20.000 t/m (4000 t produced in June, 2000 t in May). Other info (covered in earlier posts of mine) gave us a figure of 2.7t of iron ore needed for 1t of DMS magnetite ("DSMM") i.e. max Plant capacity is 10.000 t/DSMM. We know from y'days RNS that the plan is to increase this to 15.000 t/DSMM per month by Q2 2026 (meaning that the mine's production will have to rise to 40.000 t/m of iron ore).

I assume that Daenemeng's monthly cost estimates for the mine are based on the above -extrapolated - production figures, taking into account the 4-5 month gradual ramp-up; hence, using the figures of 20.000 t/m (low production) and the rump-up (max) fig. of 40.000 t/m, would give us a monthly cost of GBP15-7.5 per iron ore/t. Note that I used GBP300k as average monthly opex (and assumed 45k capex). Using the high figure of GBP15 / $20 p/t and even adding another $5 for other production costs I haven't considered, plus Daenemeng's Profit - 20% I assume - should give us a total cost of $30/t ? If the mkt price of iron ore is now $100/t but - being conservative - I assume IRON will "sell" to Daenemeng @$80, would still give IRON a Net profit of $50/t or, 40.000 (max production in Q2 2026) x 50 = $ 2mln per month (A) (just from the mine)!

We then need to add IRON's profit from the production/sale of 15.000/t of DSMM; as I have no figures yet, I am assuming (conservative) a profit/t of $150; split over 3, gives IRON $50/t of DSMM i.e. 15.000x50 = $750.000 per month (B) (from the DSM plant).

Therefore, does anyone agree with me that we are looking at a potential monthly profit of (min) USD2ml-3mln per month for IRON, from Q2 2026? $30mln annually (on average), or GBP23mln !

Using a P/E of 6-7, gives a mkt cap of GBP140-150mln; this excludes the value of the smelter (book value of 35mln, current mkt value, zero - which 'd rise once it's up and running in 2026) and the value of IRON's ore deposits (now at zero because the mkt assumed it was just a hole in the ground).

Anybody thinks that IRON is NOT way undervalued and that 2026 will NOT be the year of the market re-rating? DYOR, GL to LT holders.

Very confident in the Co's prospects; before the RNS was released, obviously (but after the Sable RNS was posted).

Most likely, someone knows something - maybe an RNS next week?

Swedish guy, economist with commodities exp etc, moved to Jo'burg on full time basis; obviously, he is there to make loads of money, not just get a salary and waste his time; IMO he knows the vast potential of the Co, its smelter, its ore resources etc a lot better than some s/holders selling to make a quick 20-30% (those who bought at 0.036 and 0.045).

Xmas is coming :)

Mwr, from my experience with other stocks, it's quite normal when Management/Insiders owns a lot of shares (like for IRON) for them to focus on getting on with the business than worry about "promotion" because they are in for the LTerm and they know that, once the right numbers start coming in, the SP will follow up. For example, with DVRG (now delisted) the crooked CEO was posting and promoting non-stop on social media; obviously he was trying to hide some bad stuff and give the impression that things were flying. Therefore, lack of promotional activity, IMO is not a bad sign, to the contrary it is a sign that Mgt are focusing on delivering for all S/holders.

2.00-1.91, things are livening up?

The CEO promised "more regular operational updates" so things will be more exciting; and this BB a bit more lively :)

May also get an operational update next week IMO, confirming Daenemeng starting/taking over the mine production.

1p equates to 160mln mkt cap; it's quite achievable actually, in 2-3 years if things go well; IRON will just need annual profits of 15-20mln to get there, definitely possible. IMO

Is anyone here a TPope client, with live access to research? It'd be good to see what TP issue (maybe today) about the recent developments - that could add more fuel to this small - for now - rally.

HCris, I agree with you - hunker down - I'm just saying that any funds needed will be a very small amount.

Co is de-risked, full revenue visibility from january, they seem to have a very good CEO who knows his stuff, the only negative I see is the massive overhang of Placing shares from last year (@0.036), which will be sold into strong rallies.

As an indication of the potential, 1st link from 2014 is about the smelter (still valued at nothing), 2nd link from 2013 is about the ore resources and the NPV of USD1bln; obviously, these are outdated but as prices are higher today, so is the potential profitability.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/IRON/publication-of-definitive-feasibility-study-ea019mk5q3srfcg.html

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/IRON/publication-of-positive-pre-feasibility-study-a227k1m134llomy.html

HChris, as per the April interims for 30 Dec 2024, they had burned appx 400k cash July-Dec, 600k were the total admin exps (maybe it included depreciation etc); they had 500k in April 2025, raised 900k in June 2025 and we expect positive CFlow from Jan-Feb; I think they are OK with cash until then, but as I said, a small raise of 100-200k if needed, will be just a 2% dilution.

I think Sable ruined it for IRON, by releasing prematurely on JSE (mid-afternoon), as Sable is suspended hence no effect on them!

IMO any shadows will disappear next month, when the AFS 2025 are released, with outlook for 2026 and numbers about cash in hand and cash expected. In a very unlikely worst case, on a current mkt cap of 8-9mln, a small raise until cashflows are positive in Q1 2026 would be a dilution of 2-3%?

To add, there was a DFS (Feasibility Study) a few years back (when ore prices were about 50% lower), giving the project an NPV of 1 billion. As I mentioned in an earlier post (when nobody was on the BB), KP2 (another mining share I know of) jumped 10x on the release of some agreements about operating a potash mine (w/o funds to finance it); IRON has an operating mine and plenty of ore yet to be discovered and counted for.

@Sdad, with all respect, IMO the SP can rise X-fold; it will all depend on cash flows and operational gearing; IRON will have 2 income streams next year, we still don't know how big they will be; this is 1st unknown (which will depend on Daenemeng's efficiencies and the ore's mkt price); however, the Co will use this cashflow to re-activate the smelter; if it gets the state loan of 10mln, it will then have a 3rd income stream - again, profits will depend on various factors. And finally, the big unknown is Mining Rights for the rest of its assets, which are - as yet - valued at 0.

So, a lot of variables can and will - IMO - increase the SP, but we don't know by how much and when.

Whether the SP moves tomorrow or not, the fact is that, with no opex and no capex needed - as each day go by - the "fear " of another placing is minimised; plus, the CEO has promised "Further announcements will be made as key milestones are achieved, and production volumes progressively increase through Q4 2025 and into 2026.", therefore there will be plenty of - positive IMO - newsflow in the next few weeks.

"We look forward to updating the market more frequently as the results of these agreements begin to bear fruit and the real potential of our operations unfolds."

"With mining, logistics, marketing and processing now under Daemaneng's operational leadership, the Company anticipates an accelerated ramp-up of production and cash-flow generation across the value chain."