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Or maybe about our Microfibre filter, going on sale in Europe and the UK before Xmas?

Just a wild guess but I'd expect that the Co has delayed an RNS release about the Plant until next week, so that they can simultaneously update the Mkt on the start of mine production by Daenemeng.

IMO, 2026 will be a game changer; The Co will have net cash flows from the mine and the Plant, so it will be able to utilise its cashflow and Management focus to make the smelter operational (and maybe finalise that 10mln loan from the state bank), plus it can spend some money on expanding its Mining Rights - the last TP Note made specific mention to another 200mln tonnes resource (now sitting on 50mln tonnes). Don't know about a takeover, I think the Insiders who own +30% will want a hefty premium to exit.

This means that all the iron ore produced at the mine, from next week (RNS possibly?) and until Jan. end, will be sold by Daenemeng on the open market/their offtakers. Thereafter, it will be supplying the Plant for DSM magnetite production.

Https://senspdf.jse.co.za/documents/SENS_20251029_S512599.pdf

Daenemeng took over the DMS Plant as well this week, and will be producing & selling 5000/t of DMS Magnetite from Jan.2026, then rising to 15.000t from Q2 26 possibly; thus, no capex or opex for IRON, just a share of the net cash flow.

"Salient terms of the Transaction

3.1 Within three months of the Effective date (26 oct), Daemaneng shall ensure that the Plant can produce 5 000 tonnes of Product and within 20 business days thereafter, deliver to Lapon a written expansion plan to expand the Plant in order to achieve a production capacity of 15 000 t/per month of Product.

3.2 Daemaneng is also in charge of all marketing and sales of DMS grade magnetite or any other product that can be produced by Lapon.

3.3 A profit sharing mechanism is included for profit beyond an agreed base price"

GLA, things can only go up from now.

Very disappointing to see the SP drift downwards in October on ZERO news; usually we get an Ops update every 2 months, so we still have a few weeks to go to November end.

We also need to have in mind that, as the SP rises, the effects of any further placings become smaller as a % to the mkt cap.

The partners are there, but for now, potential partners pending the ongoing discussions - and a lot will be clearer once the FDA approval is given, IMO. "Partnering" and/or "out-licensing" discussions are mentioned 3 times - MY CAPS - in a very small section of the RNS. Coincidental?

"Discussions with potential partners have progressed, such that the Group believes that alongside the FDA ODD application, the following activities will aid the ongoing OUT-LICENSING discussions and will be the focus of the use of proceeds from the Open Offer:

• Continued use of expert industry consultants to support PARTNERING discussions and subsequent diligence processes;

• Continued progression of PARTNERING discussions with multiple parties with the aim of securing an out-licence, option or collaborative development agreement;"

"Discussions with potential partners have progressed, such that the Group believes that alongside the FDA ODD application, the following activities will aid the ongoing out-licensing discussions and will be the focus of the use of proceeds from the Open Offer:

• Assessment of the likely inhaled human therapeutic window;

• Continued use of expert industry consultants to support partnering discussions and subsequent diligence processes;

• Continued investment into the maintenance and prosecution of key IP;

• Continued progression of partnering discussions with multiple parties with the aim of securing an out-licence, option or collaborative development agreement;

• Provide working capital for the Group whilst it progresses the above activities."

And then, another funding in March 2026, if nothing happens before then. IMO it is very positive that "only" 228k will be needed to cover exps to March 2026.

And it's fully underwritten, so if PIs do not want to use up their allocation (and "suffer" the 5% dilution), it will not matter to the Co. Yes, another cloud off the horizon, Co can now focus on - hopefully soon - the FDA approval and future deals.

I think they try to give as much info as possible without revealing commercially sensitive info; IRON is still a minnow hence a price taker on most stuff and with little negotiating leverage. Plus, they are probably bound to their counterparties with confidentiality clauses. Given the level of crime/corruption in RSA, less is "more" IMO.

Probably a technical rebound but, IMO, in a few weeks, yes this SP will look like the basement. Within the next 4-5 weeks (some news sooner than others) we'd hear about Daenemeng starting production & sales of ROM ore, then about possibly another 3rd party operator taking over the DSM plant & offtake agreements for the produce, and sometime in November or December the audited FS for 30 June 2025, which hopefully will provide confirmation (post period update) that cashflow is slowly increasing.

FWIW, one more clue/number; as per TPI Note "With a maximum design capacity of c.27,000 tonnes of ore/month, the plant’s peak hourly

throughput is expected to be c.60 tonnes. TPI estimates that at full production, the enlarged beneficiation plant will

be able to produce c.10,000 tpm of DMS grade magnetite" i.e. this means IMO that:

1 ton of DSM Magnetite will require appx 2.7 tons of iron ore, which should cost around $100-120 to extract? Add the JV DSM plant's other costs (energy etc) and the "profit loss" of $150-170 from not selling those 2.7t of ore to the market ($100-40 = $60 p/t, 100% accruing to IRON) means that the minimum price/t of DSM Magnetite should be above $400-450 to be worth producing (because any NProfit is 50-50 split with Sable).

Of course, the above are assumptions of the ore price/t, the mining costs of ore/t and the DSM plant processing costs/t. DYOR

Tnx for being an avid reader of my "view", LND.

Those who've been here longer than I, pls add to the below scenarios and their likelihoods, assuming we get the FDA approval as expected, ie in next 1-2 weeks:

1. Dan has been discussing the FDA approval -for months - with potential (3-4?) partners, who are ready to make a deal (which kind though?) soon after the FDA approval and commit time/money to pushing it forward;

2. Interested partners so far have been unwilling to commit any time to consider before the FDA approval; this means long negotiations ahead.

3. other scenarios?

Given that Dan said in the interview that he expected FDA approval "any day now" and a quick-succession RNS to follow, re a partnership deal, I would give my 1st scenario a70% chance, 20% to the 2nd (given the history of disappointments) and 10% to a 3rd unknown scenario. How would these impact the SP, going forward? Is it safe to say that the FDA approval - given the SP rise from 0.010 to 0.030 - is NOT baked in the current SP? and if not, are we looking at a rise to 0.05-0.08 min, after the news hits?

All comments welcome.

I think any TP will need to be updated when the FDA approval is announced (soon, I hope!) and the possible ranges will be determined by what kind of collaboration deals are achieved, or achievable, by NFX - IMO.

OSD, is the Analyst's research you refer to, recent? I can't find anything on google or even NFX's own site.

Https://www.turnerpope.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Ironveldplc_12_6_2025_FINAL_BG.pdf

And I forgot to mention that, Lapon mine has about 50 million tons of verified ore? This is what I understand from the above doc; however, the real SP rerating will happen once the Market starts assigning some value to the 200 mln tons of "Layer 21":

"Ironveld has now commenced a formal initiative to advance its Layer 21 asset, with initial steps underway to define a detailed work programme. A timeline outlining upcoming development activities will be announced in due course as part of the process to unlock the value of this potentially world-class geological asset."

This rerating should happen next year IMO, when IRON proves its viability by having steady positive cash flows. I suggest a reading of the above Note by TPope (even though it's not "independent" research).

Sdad, a small correction to your assumptions;

starting from your 6mln profit from the mine operations - this belongs 100% to IRON, if sold entirely as iron ore in the market by Daenemeng. So IMO, this is the minimum profit annually; however, this figure will rise if some or all of the ore is processed into DSM magnetite;

let's assume all of the ore is sold to the JV DSM Plant; using your $35 cost figure p/t, adding 20% margin (as per agreement with Sable), gives a raw material cost of $42/t for the DSM plant; I don't know if 1 ton of iron ore becomes 1 ton of DSM magnetite, after processing (info welcome!) BUT assuming it is, and using a $200/t for DSM magnetite would give us a Net profit of $160/t (appx, ignoring plant costs eg energy/labour) - split 50:50, gives $80/t to IRON; this though, doesn't make sense if IRON would - alternatively -have a net profit of $90-35= $55, just by letting Daenemng selling the iron ore directly to the market, rather than processing it; hence IMO the price/t of the DSM magnetite produced should be a lot higher (maybe $300?).

I found this: "Bulk magnetite ore costs $140–350/ton, influenced by Fe₃O₄ purity (≥96% = 20–30% premium) and order volume. Specialty forms (e.g., ultra-fine powders) reach $500–800/ton"; DSM Magnetite will be of +96% purity, so we are maybe looking at $200/t?

IMO the SP is way undervalued; still at same level as post-June placing i.e. as if no progress has been made over the last 5-6 months, zero production, no deal with Daenemeng etc.

We expect many positive catalysts in the next few weeks, namely Mine production starting in 1-2 weeks, deal for operating the DSM Plant (any time soon), which may boost the SP further, and next year (assuming cash flow steadily increases) the Smelter operation will be ready to launch.

Downside? I don't know - negative cash flows, leading to another placing? Without numbers, maybe this risk is overhanging in the market.

Comments/views welcome.