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Lots in here about M&A by phases of clinical data by Industry standards: https://www.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpmorgan/documents/cb/insights/outlook/jpm-biopharma-deck-q2-2025-final-ada.pdf

I think there is a compelling narrative for the summit:

Current US AML patient costs during treatment can exceed $120,000 monthly, often accumulating to over $1 million lifetime.

• Existing CAR-T therapies cost around $375,000–$475,000 per dose plus medical costs.

• Hemogenyx’s HG-CT-1 ultrafast CAR-T manufacturing (Patented) could reduce CAR-T production costs by about 80%, implying a dose manufacturing cost near or below $20,000.

• Total patient cost for HG-CT-1 therapy could still be high, but with meaningful savings in manufacturing, faster access, and potentially shorter hospitalisation and complication management.

Thus, Hemogenyx’s therapy could significantly improve the economic feasibility of CAR-T for AML compared to current treatment costs in the US.

The efficacy reported for the three patients treated in the HG-CT-1 Phase I trial showed early signs of clinical efficacy with the treatment being well tolerated and meeting initial safety criteria. Importantly, preliminary assessments indicated that the original acute myeloid leukemia (AML) cells were not detectable in these patients using standard testing methods. The first two patients remain alive at six and three months post-treatment, respectively, indicating encouraging survival outcomes so far. However, long-term efficacy, durability, and full clinical outcomes including progression-free survival and duration of response are still being monitored as secondary endpoints and data are being collected over time. The trial is currently testing the lowest dose level, and the independent Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) will review safety data from these patients to determine if dose escalation can proceed

Given the recent announcement on September 16-17, 2025, that the third patient in the HG-CT-1 Phase I trial has been successfully treated and met initial safety criteria. HEMO will submit safety data from these first three patients to the independent DSMB for review. Based on typical Phase I CAR-T trial DSMB review timelines—which usually take a few weeks after submission for the DSMB to evaluate safety data and provide recommendations—it is reasonable to expect an update on the DSMB outcome for the HG-CT-1 trial within approximately 2 to 4 weeks from mid-September 2025. This means news on whether dose escalation can proceed or other key outcomes might be expected by early to mid-October 2025.

US Fed is also looking to cut the rate tomorrow.

Perhaps, but deals in this area depend on the quality of the clinical data phases. There has been considerable discussion on this topic regarding potential deal sizes. For anyone interested, this is a good industry research report giving you an understanding of deals within biotech: https://www.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpmorgan/documents/cb/insights/outlook/jpm-biopharma-deck-q2-2025-final-ada.pdf

Millions to billions, all broken down for you. Always DYOR

@TimSmith12, in short, you don't have the full story. Definitely view the videos as mentioned, but to answer the confusion the initial Phase 3 trial of Immupharma’s lead asset, P140 (branded as ImmuHarmnor), did not meet its primary endpoint in the overall patient population of fewer than 200 patients. This means there was no statistically significant difference to placebo in the broad trial group, which is a common challenge in autoimmune drug development, especially with immunomodulatory peptides.

However, this result was never the final story—it served as a critical catalyst for deeper investigation and patent development. The company’s scientists identified a specific immune disorder subtype, now termed “Type M,” comprising patients who were “super responders” to P140. These patients exhibited clear biologically meaningful benefits that the broader trial population did not capture, explaining why the overall analysis failed to reach significance.

This observation simultaneously revealed two things that are not contradictory but complementary:

• The existing dose and patient selection in the initial Phase 3 were not optimised for the Type M responders, which means the overall trial missed the full potential efficacy signal.

• The treatment does have a mechanistic effect in a biologically defined group, validating P140’s mode of action as an immune normaliser rather than a suppressor. This balance is crucial, as it reduces autoimmune flares and brings the immune system back into a stable, balanced state without compromising immune defense.

Building on these insights, Immupharma filed a groundbreaking new patent covering P140 with several key innovations:

• Identification and diagnostic testing for the Type M immune disorder patients, enabling precise patient selection.

• Confirmation and detailing of P140’s unique mechanism of action in human biology.

• Optimised dosing and treatment methodology designed to induce durable remission in autoimmune diseases by restoring immune homeostasis.

This patent now positions P140 as a potential breakthrough immunotherapy with a 20-year commercial exclusivity window, targeting not just lupus but potentially up to 50 autoimmune diseases affecting over 400 million people worldwide.

In essence, the Phase 3 trial was a proof of concept that laid the groundwork for this precision medicine approach. Rather than disproving efficacy, it unlocked a novel treatment paradigm—one that puts autoimmunity into remission by restoring immune balance, rather than broadly suppressing the immune system as conventional therapies do. This is why the patent filing is viewed as a major commercial and clinical catalyst, significantly enhancing the value of Immupharma’s lead asset. Always DYOR

HBD, agree it would be nice to be kept informed. What a difference between companies that talk up the fact that they are in discussions with big pharma (IMM) to those who keep tight lipped about everything. No NDA inhibits companies to say openly they are in talks with various parties, how developed their discussions are and what milestones they are waiting for. The communication is a bit dismal with SAR.

I've just listened to the interview from today ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSUsuxcuplA ) in case you haven't got to it yet. From 21 mins listen in when Tim actually gets asked if big pharma is involved to really bring this to the market, and his answer is a resounding yes and that they have been for a while. They are currently doing due diligence on the patent and look to close a deal anytime between now and the end of year. Again, it looks like multiple deals are in the making. DYOR

This technical report highlights a decent appreciation. The report’s NPV and resource upgrades likely contribute to share price appreciation, aligning with analyst forecasts for a price increase to the 260-290p range, assuming stable gold prices and execution of growth plans.

Here is the video:

https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts-embed/60915434179bf678efd0f76d/event/?previewEventId=60915434179bf678efd0f76d&popup=true

If anything, I do believe Warpaint has the most to gain from headwinds as they operate in the value category with the 'lipstick effect' and all that.

I think that’s a bit harsh. Warpaint has a solid long-term record of delivering growth, strong international expansion, and consistent cash generation. The macro headwinds you mention apply across the sector – yet W7L continues to gain distribution channels and protect margins without resorting to a race-to-the-bottom on pricing. Management have earned credibility through execution over many years, and while short-term sales fluctuations happen, writing them off with a 150p target ignores both balance sheet strength and proven strategy.

70m shares traded 10 day AVG volume 5.4m. It's not even midday yet. The potential size of the partnership is huge.

Here is a list of notable autoimmune drug candidates or companies involved in deals exceeding £100 million (approximately $130 million) based on recent 2024-2025

• FutureGen’s FG-M701 (TL1A antibody for IBD): Licensing deal with AbbVie included $150 million upfront and total potential deal value up to $1.6 billion .

• Vertex Pharmaceuticals acquired Alpine Immune for $4.9 billion, targeting lupus and lupus nephritis with Acazicolcept and Povetacicept .

• Eli Lilly acquired Morphic for $3.2 billion for IBD and autoimmune therapies including MORF-057 .

• Biogen acquired HI-Bio for $1.8 billion. HI-Bio’s felzartamab is a Phase 2 antibody for kidney autoimmune diseases with FDA Breakthrough designation .

• Caldera Therapeutics licensed a preclinical bispecific antibody QX030N for autoimmune diseases in a deal valued at $555 million .

• Harbour BioMed collaboration with Otsuka Pharmaceutical for HBM7020 worth $670 million targeting autoimmune diseases .

• Sanofi deals including up to $1.845 billion for bispecific antibodies against autoimmune and IBD targets .

• Johnson & Johnson acquired Proteologix for $850 million for bispecific antibodies in autoimmune inflammation .

• Cullinan Therapeutics’ deal for BCMA/CD3 bispecific Velinotamig valued up to $712 million .

These deals involved significant upfront payments plus milestones and royalties and cover a range of autoimmune indications such as lupus, IBD, kidney autoimmune diseases, and inflammatory diseases. The high values demonstrate market appetite and licensing potential for differentiated, first-/best-in-class autoimmune drug candidates.

This context supports the reasonableness of a £300-600m deal range for ImmuPharma’s P140 lupus drug given its first-in-class status, patent exclusivity, and FDA Fast Track potential

Agree, it is difficult to put a price on however, licensing deals in comparable autoimmune drug candidates often exceeding £100m upfront plus milestones and royalties. The P140 is better than these drugs hence FDA Fast Track potential due to its first-in-class immunormalizer mechanism, and unique precision diagnostic-linked treatment approach for lupus (SLE) and other autoimmune diseases. This positions P140 as a highly differentiated, potentially best-in-class therapy with a significant market opportunity.

The February 2025 Lanstead deal added approximately 53.5 million new shares (50 million subscription shares plus 3.5 million value payment shares), which would dilute the pre-deal shares. Starting from the base of 416,437,265 ordinary shares this gives us a fully diluted share count of: 469,973,265 shares. So if you think they will agree a £500m deal then we are looking at 106p.

IMM got a mention on Zak's traders bulletin board update: https://zakstraderscafe.com/bulletin-board-heroes-september-10-2/12978/ IMM update at 9:52. Look at 18p according to the charts given, we have stayed above the support line.

3 times daily volume here today already. Something's leaking. A few 1m share transactions.

Also worth mentioning that it's rare, but. Lupuzor has already been granted FDA Fast Track designation, which is intended to expedite the development and review process for drugs addressing serious conditions with unmet medical needs. The FDA has approved the commencement of the new international Phase 3 trial with a Special Protocol Assessment (SPA), indicating agreement on the trial design to support marketing approval.

• Lupus, as a chronic autoimmune disease with limited effective and safe treatment options, is an area where the FDA may prioritise faster review for promising therapies.

• Avion Pharmaceuticals and ImmuPharma have engaged in detailed Type-C meetings with the FDA, receiving comprehensive guidance to optimise trial design and endpoints.

This is also an additional commercial plus to add to negotiations and underlines the importance of this development.