Member Info for LSBM

For those of you who haven't seen this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hce5NLzsMR8

It's worth watching as it explains why this is the best/first in class, with the potential to put patients into remission. Not many drugs can do that in autoimmune disease. Patent filing is mentioned, and the exclusivity this allows partners. Additionally, Tim discusses closing a deal by the end of this year, which is next on their hit list. By the sounds of it, there is more than one partner and possibly two deals to be closed.

Agree, Mancunian, and the only other thing I would add is that sales are H2 weighted with gifting.

AGL’s lower FY25 revenue outlook is disappointing, but that’s typical for early commercial-stage biotechs—especially when contracts land unevenly and major pharma projects push out. At this stage, most of the share price is about long-term potential (like big pharma or medtech adoption), not just short-term sales misses. HEMO has seen similar setbacks and then big rerates on positive progress. Early-stage biotech value is all about inflection points, not steady revenue.

The UK liquid biopsy market is estimated at around $801 million in 2024 and is projected to reach approximately $1.62 billion by 2030, reflecting an annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 12.4%. For ANGLE plc, given its specialised technology and clinical capabilities in lung and breast cancers, its addressable market slice can be substantial, particularly in metastatic and companion diagnostic settings.

UK Liquid Biopsy Market Size & Growth Rate

• Estimated UK market revenue (2024): USD 801.2 million

• Projected UK market revenue (2030): USD 1,624.3 million

• Annual growth rate (CAGR): 12.4% (2025–2030)

• Largest segment: Blood sample-based liquid biopsies, which includes ANGLE plc’s Parsortix system

ANGLE Plc Market Opportunity in Lung & Breast Cancer

• The Parsortix system has obtained FDA clearance for capturing and harvesting cancer cells, distinguishing it from competitors for clinical utility and regulatory status.

• ANGLE’s own estimates place the addressable market for metastatic breast cancer liquid biopsies at USD 3.9 billion globally per year.

• For ovarian cancer, ANGLE estimates a global annual market potential of USD 1.8 billion.

• The UK forms roughly 3-4% of the global liquid biopsy market by revenue and cancer incidence.

• For breast cancer alone, given UK incidence of over 55,000 new cases annually and a significant subset developing metastatic disease, liquid biopsy could target thousands of high-value diagnostic and monitoring cases each year.

• Likewise, lung cancer forms a large liquid biopsy use-case in the UK due to its prevalence and role in therapy selection and resistance monitoring.

Estimated Market Share for ANGLE plc

• With blood-based sampling as the fastest-growing segment and Parsortix’s clinical adoption/reimbursement trajectory, ANGLE could plausibly target 5–10% market penetration within its certified indications (mainly breast and lung cancers) in the UK, depending on NHS/clinical uptake and competitive landscape.

• Based on a $1.62 billion UK market by 2030, ANGLE’s “size of pie” in UK breast and lung cancer could reach:

• $81–$162 million per year if 5–10% share is achieved, and potentially higher with expansion to other cancer types.

"Our agreement with Myriad Genetics marks a potentially transformational step towards the large-scale commercialisation of the Parsortix system, providing a pathway to CTCs being adopted into routine clinical use."

"Encouraging discussions progressing with the UK NHS in relation to establishing major clinical studies to formally assess the clinical benefits of analysing CTCs using the Parsortix system with a view to clinical adoption as part of the NHS 10 Year Health Plan"

Biotechs often trade at large market caps based on potential for platform adoption and future milestone deals, especially ahead of pivotal clinical data or collaborations, not trailing sales or profitability. Revenue multiples for early-stage genomics/biotech in 2025 are often 6–7x, but with sales under £2–3m, valuations can reflect billions in addressable opportunities if large partners or regulatory catalysts are in play. Investors discount near-term volatility if platform adoption appears likely (e.g., companion diagnostics or NHS clinical trial traction, as seen in today’s ANGLE update); the upside hinges more on large pharma/medtech contracts and clinical integration than on current income.

It's only a matter of time before these contracts come tumbling in.

I think the acquisition of CFDS is a strategically positive and financially sound move that positions Journeo into a fast-growing, high-barrier market with solid financial returns expected. The relatively low purchase multiple and strong projected incremental revenue and profit suggest good value creation potential. The move also advances Journeo’s longer-term target of reaching £100 million revenue with strong margins by broadening its addressable markets and strengthening its technology offerings. This will add some impetus to the forecasts for the appreciation is expected to rise approximately 68% from its current level, with a probable price range between around 640p and 730p by December 2025. Plus, their P/E ratio is still lower than some of its peers.

It's clearly a timing issue. TRLS is at an early stage in its commercialisation journey, so it's challenging to say when contracts come in and when actual cash hits its operations. Hence, why they have held out so long, indicating there is perhaps hope of not having to fundraise, although if timing doesn't work in their favour, then fundraising is a last resort. Given the limited float, we know any moments are large. TRLS delivers notably better results compared to typical treatments by addressing both the physical and mental health impacts of the condition, so contracts will be incoming in my view. Please DYOR.

Also note they say "The Company is yet to commence discussion with investors in respect of a potential fundraise and there is no certainty a fundraising will complete."

On Tuesday, we will find out how much the Myraid collaboration is worth. Myriad performs approximately 1.35 million genetic tests per year.

• ANGLE’s Parsortix test price is over $3,000 per test.

• The exact number of tests Myriad would run via ANGLE’s Parsortix system is not public, but even a fraction of Myriad’s total tests would generate significant revenue.

• For example, if Myriad processes 100,000 Parsortix tests annually using ANGLE’s technology, ANGLE could earn on the order of $300 million annually (100,000 tests × $3,000/test).

• Smaller volumes (e.g., 10,000 tests) would still generate $30 million annually.

• ANGLE also earns additional revenue from associated consumables, assay development, and research services under the agreement, potentially adding material incremental income.

Thus, the commercial collaboration value to ANGLE could realistically range from tens to hundreds of millions of USD annually depending on adoption scale by Myriad and others using the Parsortix platform in clinical and drug development settings. Plus all those potential leads and clinical trial volumes that we have been eagerly awaiting updates on.

The news item has the wrong figures!

The key Q2 surprise factors for Metals Exploration include a significant beat on financials, operational improvements, and some project updates that exceeded internal and external forecasts.

Financial Surprises

• Record pre-tax free cash flow: US$47.2 million, nearly double Q1’s US$23.5 million and higher than expected due to increased gold sales and higher gold prices.

• Gold revenue jump: US$70.5 million versus US$48.4 million in Q1, as both production and realised sale prices exceeded forecasts.

• Higher cash holding: Finished the quarter at US$43.5 million, up from US$20.7m, with all debt cleared, improving balance sheet strength more rapidly than analysts anticipated.

Operational Surprises

• AISC (All-In Sustaining Cost) reduction: Fell to US$1,098 per ounce, below management’s official guidance and in contrast to sector-wide inflation pressures.

• Gold recovery rate uplift: Achieved 92.1% (up from 90.7%), a meaningful operational improvement helping sustain margins.

• Mining production: Slightly above management’s forecast, hitting 2.98Mt mined versus forecast and prior quarter.

Project and Safety Surprises

• Zero lost time injuries: Reinforced positive safety culture—a notable achievement for quarter’s operations.

• Construction pace at La India, Nicaragua: Project is ahead of schedule with bulk earthworks and infrastructure progressing faster than expected, surprising on the upside in terms of future production growth.

Overall, Metals Exploration’s Q2 brought multiple upside surprises via financial outperformance, lower-than-expected costs, higher operational efficiencies, and faster project development; these factors collectively fueled heightened market confidence and a positive reaction from analysts.

I think the market is overreacting to the JPM sell-down and shorting. Market is interpreting this to mean results may not be great; however, they have overlooked Rathbones buy up to 1.2m 5.58% holdings this May. Also that 40% is owned by insiders. I went back to W7L last presentation and believe there is so much opportunity. https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/624aac5eec2229318e2db5e8/680f8cafb50576775e84fdac_250429%20W7L%202024%20FY%20results%20presentation%20vF.pdf. I'm particularly interested in continued brand sales momentum expected in 2025:

UK Superdrug rolling out W7 into 140 new stores and travel size into all stores from June.

Tesco confirmed a 150-store expansion of the Group’s W7 impulse offering during 2025.

Boots to take gifting products for the first time for Christmas 2025 (to be stocked in 350 stores) and accessories going into 250 stores

US CVS expanding the range stocked and roll-out to a further 399 stores from August. A total of 918 stores

Italy Tigota launching of a range of products in 200 stores with a capsule collection going into an additional 400 stores

Netherlands Etos to expand its product assortment in all 546 stores, with a permanent fixture and enhanced range in selected stores

Globally In talks with other large retailers in Europe, the US and the UK to stock the Group’s products

And we have yet to hear how Brand Architekts can add to this. But please DYOR

Https://discoveryalert.com.au/news/gold-stocks-autumn-2025-rally-investment-opportunities/

This can't be the result of simply wall st feature on THX? Looking at the volumes, I think news is incoming sooner rather than later.

This still has a long way to go. Forecasted consensus median 265!

Lots of positions are being built with multiple chunky buys.

My thoughts on just fundamentals are based on my investment in SRB, which I'm sure some of you are also into. SRB SP valued almost 4 times more than THX.

SRB

The 2024 official all-in sustaining cost (AISC) was $1,635/oz.

• At Coringa, a lower steady-state AISC of $1,241–$1,250/oz is projected once fully ramped up.

• 2024 cash cost averaged approximately $1,300/oz

The 2025 consolidated gold production guidance is 44,000–47,000 ounces

Mine life 6+ years Palito; 11 years Coringa PEA

Projected to generate over $15 million in free cash flow for 2025 at current production and gold price levels

Compared to THX

2025 AISC guidance is $800–$1,000/oz for Segilola, reflecting a significant cost advantage over SRB

2025 gold production guidance is 85,000–95,000 ounces, roughly double that of SRB

Mine life estimated 5–6 yrs, actively drilling to extend

Generated over $42 million in levered free cash flow in the past twelve months (TTM) to June 2025

Thor’s total free cash flow (over $42 million) is nearly three times Serabi’s projected 2025 level, highlighting the gap in scale, margin, and FCF yield. Yet look at the SP. Please DYOR I just believe when the PFS is published, the SP will re-rate to close some of this gap. Not long to go.

Interested to hear people's views, but isn't the fair value now out of date? Until the PFS is published, the analysts will not be able to update the fair value. As investors, we now have multiple positive drilling results, which has on sentiment added a few pence here and there, but how much this means in mine life, priority and grade of gold and cost of retrieval and therefore cash needs quantifying. I believe this is worth a lot more than where we are at today.

Life of Current Asset Mine - Serabi Gold (SRB)

• Palito Complex: Serabi Gold’s Palito mine has proven and probable reserves of 162,600 ounces at 7.2 g/t gold, supporting more than six years of mine life at current production levels (approximately 30,000–40,000 ounces per year). Total mineral inventory at Palito is 552,000 ounces, up 4% since 2023, with ongoing resource replacement through a significant brownfield exploration program.

• Coringa Mine: The Coringa mine currently operates under a three-year “trial mining licence” (GU), renewed in January 2024 and valid until January 2027. This license permits the transport of up to 50,000 tonnes of ore per year to be processed at the Palito Complex. Production and resource expansion continue, with the company targeting a substantial increase in overall resources.

License Agreement

• The trial mining license (GU) for Coringa, renewed in early 2024, demonstrates ongoing stakeholder and indigenous community support. The GU permits annual ore transport from Coringa and remains in effect while Serabi continues to seek a full Installation License (LI), which, if granted, would provide more permanent and unrestricted mining operations.

Predicted Future Revenue from New Assets

• Production and Revenue Growth: Serabi Gold is forecasted to grow revenue by over 35% in 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to double, supported by a nearly fourfold jump in 2024 performance. Analyst consensus projects annual revenue growth of 7.2% and EPS growth of 4.9% through upcoming years, driven by new resource additions and planned expansion to 55,000 ounces annual production as Coringa ramps up.

• Exploration and drilling at Palito, Coringa, and new targets like São Domingos are central to future resource expansion; the company’s goal is to increase total mineral resources to between 1.5–2.0 million ounces, underpinning longer-term production and revenue increases