Real world not ceasing - is it??26 Mar 2019 17:21
Hi all,
In my part of the world the "real world" is not ceasing to exist. All the industrial/business parks are full of cars and contractors...lorries constantly coming and going...and this is just a snapshot of relatively small UK towns/market towns.
Hence if online is constantly growing and the "real world" is not shrinking then in my opinion it means that the world is only going to hit its limits to growth sooner than originally envisaged.
Also with online growing year upon year, and the "real world" not visibly shrinking, then surely the world's consumption of natural resources is going to have to also keep on growing....so people betting against mining, and oil and gas companies are probably not going to see the decline of these industries anywhere near as fast as they perhaps previously expected.
In fact there may still be decades of genuine growth left in the mining and oil-and-gas sector because if people want home-food delivery, more consumer choice, lower energy costs, and more foreign travel then there will have to be more finance provided to the natural resources sector and new development projects given the go ahead.
Otherwise we are perceived to be in a managed decline by the financiers and yet on the ground it is not the story one sees, and add to that the growth in online year upon year -this can't continue without more infrastructure spend to improve networks for the distribution of goods (it's all well and good have amazing warehouse technology but roads need maintaining and upgrading unless it causes problems). Also everyone wants to travel and to see the world - yet electric cars are only a tiny fraction of the global fleet of vehicles as of today.
So something is not going to add up in the future - either the wealth inequality will increase even further causing a risk of social chaos and financial chaos all over developed markets - or there will need to be further projects given the go ahead to extract more natural resources from the Earth.
However, although I don't like to predict growing inequality it seems the most likely option, because there seems a complete lack of realism from policymakers that natural resources projects can actually create jobs, thriving communities, and at the same time be long-term neutral regarding their environmental impact (which nearly all natural resources projects can be as former mine sites can be made into nature reserves, and oil extraction is probably carbon neutral in the medium term as both plants and oceans convert atmospheric CO2 into oxygen.