Member Info for Lottohopes

Yes, it’s finally here. One glimpse at the 5 year copper price graph and my judgement clears. All the best all holders :)

Your welcome Levistubbs! It would be a shame if we let our previous frustrations here affect our judgement on what we do next. This is the next chapter in this story. Previous holders such as ourselves form only 33% of the new total float. We’ve done the hard part: which is waiting week after week, month after month, indeed year after year. Meanwhile the team has been busy and I expect the time has been used wisely. It’s given them time to cherry pick teams. To establish relationships locally. It’s fortuitous that Cu languished and we were suspended too. First pass prospecting on our new areas, soil studies, geomag studies, rock chip sampling must be nearly all in the bag if you ask me. The plans for scout drilling must be drawn up. Drilling is planned in H1 2020. The CEO has put a large amount of cash in, and controls over 18%. I imagine additional cash will be forthcoming should the need arise (I don’t expect it to). The Wheaton agreement being amended gives us a slightly more meaningful gold exposure too (for over 12 months ie into Jan 2021). Monthly SMM offtake payments will continue (I expect we might not see one for Dec, who knows?) So plenty happening next 6 months to keep interest alive in this story. Good luck all

Kovacs is a key academic person in this developing story. She worked in other explorers in the region. As part of her thesis, she re-interpreted the geology of the region, and proposed that Minto and Carmacks are part of the same mineralisation event etc. Pere has consolidated huge land packages to the north and south of Minto-through our 2018-19. As such, this is now an integrated explorer, developer and producer, with a fully functioning $350 m mine-mill complex. The mill will be the hub to which ore comes from the surrounding areas. And we have a copper giant Sumitomo as a “strategic partner”. I know we have had an incredibly hard time waiting through news vacuums and uncertainty, but I remain confident of the company’s vision and commitment to deliver value eventually. Gati and rest of bod putting in big amounts only strengthens my conviction. The big unknown in this story is copper price going ahead. But even that is nicely hedged. If copper goes to say $3 by Jan-Feb: that’s the point at which our current Cu concentrate reaches Japanese port. And SMM will pay us the differential upside, at that point. Obviously it works in reverse too if Cu is lower than presently. All imho only. Please DYOR

Blanka: just a few points to add. The mill is running 2 weeks on and 2 weeks off, until the mine has gotten momentum and produces bigger tonnage. So in that sense the production (at mill) for the 6 week period from Oct 11-Nov end, is merely 4 weeks churn. And this is before ramp up of tonnage.

Secondly value attributable is not just to what’s produced. There’s value in the exploration- both at Minto, where drilling is ongoing; and secondly elsewhere; drilling is ongoing at Minto ). Over 200 sq Km of the copper belt has been staked. There’s value for reserve “in the ground”, and at the moment most of the copper ore at Minto is resource, hence discounted. The prospectus states they have 412kt of oxide ore at 1.12% in inventory: that’s a fair chunk (about $20m worth) even if recoveries are say a realistic 75% for oxides.

All in all, so many value adds and news flow queued up. But it needs to relist first and having waited over 90 weeks, I think we all deserve some magic. All the best folks

Gyrometric IME is a game changer. That’s a fact because a £500m+ organisation ORE Blyth, which does cutting edge research in the sector has trialled the kit and endorsed it. The more pertinent question for us is whether the board can commercialise this tech and harness it’s potential? It’s nearly 2 years since the new board took over, and we haven’t seen a single commercial contract using Gyrometric tech yet. So it’s understandable the market is punishing us. The recent RNSs have mentioned numerous credible threads for revenue: cement manufacturing, energy sector etc. DYOR. Good luck all

Very disappointing for Geocurve and saddening for employees, agreed. As others rightly point out, cost base is reduced. Secondly board focus should now be squarely on Gyrometric with no distractions.

I think the board has lost much bigger amounts on paper. They have £1m invested here, between 3 board members. Gyrometric is pursuing numerous revenue threads and some of these will convert imho. A matter of time. DYOR. Good luck all

From reading the Araguaia feasibility study, I d say they have done a good job from the environmental angle. No tailings, waste pellets reused as road and other civil works material, top soil is removed, stored separately and land restored with same top soil once mined. Main issue with RKEF is huge energy costs, even that is green energy: hydro. Job done.

So we have a £2m mcap co, with £1m invested by directors. 48% of share issue is out of public hands. Numerous revenue threads in last few updates. My hope is for geocurve to remain atleast cash neutral in H2. The biggest driver in next 3-6 months will be Gyrometric.

Today’s RNS adds to its unique tech which to summarise:
1. Entirely digital (current tech analog)
2. ACTUAL displacement of shafts measured (current tech is mainly vibrations monitored)
3. Zero error/zero false positive
4. Wireless transmission via broadband (hence wide range of frequencies ie 0-20,000rpm)
5. Can be monitored remotely (existing tech needs human presence ONSITE)
6. Can monitor continuously (existing tech is periodic monitoring)
7. Can intervene to prevent damage or optimise power (current tech cannot)
8. As huge amount of data accumulates, big data emerges (ie machine learning to improve quality of monitoring)
9. Fully patented algorithms with global markets aimed for

Today’s RNS is significant. It adds
1. Initial calibration of the equipment
2. Worlds first tech to do BOTH using same machine: initial and subsequent continuous monitoring, hence zero error

Of course none of this is relevant until the tech is harnessed and revenue emerges. Whether the current board is able to focus its energies and convert this huge opportunity or not is the big question. It’s a skeptic market generally at the moment anyways. The board don’t strike me as people who would throw good money after bad. One only has to look at how they swiftly executed decisions previously (ex: restructure of Strat Aero 2018 etc). All above my opinion only. Please DYOR.

The recent raise now takes board invested cash to nearly one million pound, in a co with a circa £2m mcap.

Qualia: the beauty of these bbs is that ones posting history is naked, available to peruse. It’s a free bb, everyone can post what they want. What I would plead is: let Chartists focus on charts, let those who chase fundamentals do so, and hopefully those longer in tooth realise that both are necessary to make money. I hope we all make money here by doing our own reading :)

Qualia: I would agree only partly with your statements. Traders are an important part of a market too. I also respect the fact that “entry point/s” into a share need some TA knowledge and a lot of investors focussing sheerly on fundamentals get this wrong. But I have a problem with trader types casting aspersions on fundamentals to try and create fear. This is a flag for lack of integrity. If one feels the sp will decline or retrace, by all means post and alert others (if there is an altruistic element to this). Everyone has the right to post what they want and it hardly matters. People have to do their own research. Just my two pence.

Qualia: 1% of a holding is about 14m shares. So it’s very easy for a big holder (ex a fund) to trade a small slice, make money and keep it here without declaring. I’ve had some access to share holder sheets on Bloomberg and seen movement of 5/10m shares up and down, month to month (last few months). Some of these have averages below 4p, so it’s worth doing for them.

Wasarunner: HZM is a junior explorer with big aspirations. And it has done superbly in acquiring land packages over several years, at the bottom of the cycle. Secondly it has managed to progress the projects through, despite very difficult market conditions. The team has sheer tenacity and the share structure will not allow a cheap T/O after this much perseverance.

Regardless of our skills, we just don’t have the bandwidth (imho) to manage the development of TWO huge projects at this stage ourselves. It therefore makes sense to find a major who will partner us on Vermelho. This facilitates two things: market realises that both projects will progress in parallel. Secondly major will pay a chunk of cash to get their stake, and this substantially reduces the equity cash we need for Araguaia. (Broker note gives a low ball number for this type of transaction of 100m) Indeed I would say the 3-6 month delay in Araguaia financing (it was scheduled for 2019, now they say it will be Q1-2 2020) is to make these arrangements imo.

Wasarunner: broker note states exactly that. That they will get a partner and progress the project towards BFS. Remember studies cost millions, even if done previously.

That took about six weeks after the announcement. Regardless of its immediate effect on sp, it signals that Araguaia is proceeding in earnest. That production is realistic and so is funding being arranged (after all Orion recoups money only on revenue).

Commencing the early engineering works, appointing further personnel, pinning down the timelines/budgets should shave a slice off that $443m too. This is an exciting phase for share holders and the co. Lastly as JM admitted, being cashed up is fundamental to surviving any upcoming storms, and maintaining shareholder value, regardless of Ni price. This is why I like the co: they are moving in a surefooted manner without any rampy rubbish. Imho only. Please DYOR

Wasarunner: your question, on how the tonnage will ramp up production, was one of the most incisive ones asked today. As usual, it was ignored lol. My two pence: looking at the broker note, the tonnage of Nickel does go up from circa 20ktpa to nearer 34ktpa after 3-4 years. Then it drops, because I assume the grade drops in later years (which is compensated by the higher tonnage). Could be wrong....just guessing.

Note the broker expects HZM to use Vermelho as leverage, to finance a part of Araguaia equity. It’s interesting that they don’t even mention the possibility of a T/O or speculate on the figures around this. I did think this an odd omission in range of outcomes. Unless the Co themselves have asked paradigm to avoid conjecture on this. (It’s paid marketing at the end of the day).

Wasarunner: I looked at the other projects compared on those slides, any available studies, the capex etc. Nothing is a patch on Vermelho imho. But everyone’s got to do their own reading and use their own judgement. How long can you hold patiently, during a transformative period, which imho will be barely 6-9 months? And can you tolerate some paper losses due to games played by market? These are the rhetorical questions. Good luck all

Wasarunner: the Vermelho PFS presentation is in a link, on Vermelho Project page. It would have been nice if the slides were shown as part of JM speaking though.

Just to clarify Luke, Ni price used is 16,400, (and 2k added to that as premium presumably) and while there might be bumps along the way, one needs to consider the “average” across a longer time frame. I doubt that will be much lower atleast whilst we seek funding for these projects. IRR is comfortably above 20%, the so called hurdle.

The cobalt price used is 35k, whilst long term consensus is 55k. The Kieserite fertiliser price is slashed to $180/t (vs current price of 380/t, to account for local oversupply). 18% extra contingency added to costs. So I think it’s a very conservative set of numbers. As usual JM is not rampy, understated and solid in his approach.

The most intriguing comment is the mention of aiming to emulate Coral Bay Ni Corp. This co includes Sumitomo and Mitsui. SMM was the pioneer of commercial HPAL. And both Mitsui and SMM have long links with Vale, as partners. Infact Vale had announced in July 2019, its intention to invest upto 5.5b in battery grade Ni projects, inc Indonesia (and some of this money with SMM).

https://theinsiderstories.com/vale-indonesia-prepares-us5b-to-build-nickel-plant-with-japans-sumitomo/

I reckon the ban brought forward will make these companies rethink strategy. It’s impossible to plan decades ahead when govts are fickle and change plans.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1WT1P8

So I reckon Vale and Sumitomo are interested in our projects. Vermelho being in Vales backyard, I doubt they will want another major sniffing around. All my two pence. DYOR.

The Ni price used is the same conservative one as Araguaia. There is a $2000 premium added given it’s battery product. Solid PFS. Await developments over next few months