Member Info for lordloadsoflolly

Skippy - the RNS's states “with the aim of entering contracts”.

That to me clearly implies sales, though admittedly the RNS is probably worded just vaguely enough to pass any legal litmus test.

Given how many shares SMT bought into Treasury when the SP was languishing around the mid £6-£10 mark, I’d say it was a pretty shrewd move to be reissuing them just a couple or so years later at c. double the price. A bird in the hand & all that!

FS - think we’re broadly in agreement on Opti’s dismal performance v. projections.

That said, SOH created SBTX from a “mere” £750k initial outlay, so not a complete failure. And you could argue Opti’s timing & the prices it struck for its various SBTX reductions wasn’t too bad after all. Though to an extent that depends on the outcome of the forensic investigation still.

I’m not an impatient investor here, nor am I trying to talk the SP down. As if a few posts by a PI would make a blind bit of difference anyway.

But I do prefer companies to be accurate - even erring on the conservative side - with their guidance. When they aren’t, you’re more likely to get the sort of SP drift we’re currently experiencing here.

DropD - on 23 Feb, they RNS’d “Helix will be meeting various off takers over the coming weeks with the aim of entering a mix of short & long-term contracts to maximise price and revenue for the Company.”

That was almost 10 weeks ago. If they meant “over the coming months”, they shouldn’t say “over the coming weeks”.

Bit like saying summer 2025 for first production which turned out to be over-optimistic by almost a year.

Joed - sure, except over the past 5 years SMT has typically traded at a 5%-22% discount to NAV.

Its current premium is the exception, not the rule.

Pebsi - now you’re just being silly. I haven’t been “bringing it up every day”.

In fact, I’ve barely been on this board in recent months, since Tim reneged on his latest commitment to close a deal before the end of 2025.

FS - always healthy to express different views on a BB, providing it’s done civilly! Which I think we always have.

Pre-suspension, SBTX’s market cap was £25.27m, of which Opti held 5.64% - so £1.425m worth.

Given Opti’s own market cap is currently only c. £5m, that’s a MAJOR chunk of its total value.

And I firmly believe the current uncertainty over SBTX’s value & future is weighing heavily on Opti’s own SP.

Anyone believing there hasn’t been a deviation from plan of some sort is denying basic facts.

The recently announced timetable has not been adhered to. Therefore something unexpected has occurred.

It might end up being a case of no news is good news. The delay could be due to ever better offers being received.

But until we know, it’s likely the SP will continue to drift.

Beamer - they’ve only just guided for FY 26 with the placing. So any uprate presumably wouldn’t apply until 2027 or later.

SauTrade - maybe, but that’s all speculation.

Pebsi - ok, so you don’t like me bringing up Tim’s performance at Incanthera.

How about Alizyme then, which went bust in 2009? Or the 21 companies he’s been involved with which have since been dissolved:

find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/officers/_wKq_AHsfAEAtVe0e0DcZfIKk8w/appointments

Draft - yeah, that was kinda my point.

Martinu - yes. And I do think this looks stupidly undervalued right now.

But the SBTX debacle has thrown a major spanner in the works as we simply don’t know how much Opti’s holding there is now worth. Or even whether it still has a value.

Plus, with overheads of around £2.6m , sales way below that & losses continuing to mount up, it’s really going to take a major sales increase &/or news - finally - of a Sweetbiotix launch before things significantly re-rate upwards.

Supra - agreed.

I’ve added twice in the past on these radio silence dips. First one paid off handsomely (so far!). Second is currently slightly underwater but I’m not unduly concerned.

My thinking is there will definitely be further (hopefully positive) news before the AGM. Just a game of chicken ATM if you’re looking to add. Wait for a potentially lower price, but at the risk of positive news dropping before you add ..

Drops - you’re incorrect saying “Just a reminder here. Nothing has changed since sp was in the high 40s.”

Company guidance on update timings has slipped. Yet again. And the SP has drifted accordingly.

As I said before, it’s sometimes the lesser of two evils to maintain radio silence for a while following a hitch until you can announce it’s fixed.

But investors aren’t daft. Something clearly hasn’t quite gone to plan and the current weakening SP reflects that.

Tim’s track record is illuminating.

Over at Incanthera, he predicted last August Skin+CELL would sell 100,000 units by 31 03 26.

Well he jolly nearly got there, shifting - er - 177 units & generating the princely sum of £12,400 in a mere 8 months or so.

Corner shop owners everywhere must marvel at his sales skills. Not to mention forecasting abilities.

One thing that’s kinda been overlooked with all the placing noise is their FY26 projection. 20%+ growth from a historically very low base sounds pretty pedestrian to me.

To me, that sort of revenue increase couldn’t possibly justify IQE’s current SP - let alone any future upwards re-rate. So either they’re deliberately under-projecting with a view to way over-delivering (would be a first for this company). Or peeps are being carried away by the MACOM placing news.

Stoater - totally agree. All you could do is vote the whole process down.

But IIs - who hold the majority of shares & by some strange coincidence managed to get their snouts in the trough in time - will doubtless wave it through regardless.

Only other option is to stop adding any further on principle & to ditch your current holding, should it ever return to profit .

Farewell Tigtig

It was a pleasure- the brief time it lasted.

Another loss eh? Still, there’s always tomorrow. By which time I have a sneaky feeling you’ll be telling us you’ve bought back in so you lose more money.