Member Info for lordloadsoflolly

Span - perhaps they’ve simply got other plans for the rest of that war chest.

Inez has become more urgent, given the 3 month 100% offtake agreement secured at historically high spot prices. So if they’ve other equally pressing priorities they’d now like to fulfil alongside this, they need more cash than previously thought.

Personally I think you’re leaping to conclusions & should try to ascertain the facts from the horse’s mouth (sorry Bo!) tomorrow. As I’m sure you will 😁

Forget about the results tomorrow. We already know the rough minimum YOY sales uplift (20% give or take).

The outlook statement’s all that counts. And yes, we’ll need plenty of meat on the bones to sustain - & eventually exceed - the current SP level.

Span - “What annoys me (is) that the cash for the 5th well has been burnt thru (with no mention).”

Not saying this is wrong, but could you just explain how you know this, given there’s been no mention? 🙏

Spantrout - I fully expect an extension to the 3 month deal or another spot/long term offtake agreement before the current one expires.

So cash issues aren’t a huge concern for me right now.

Besides - unlike almost every other share I’ve owned - fundraises here have done little, if anything, to damage the SP. Either in the short or long term.

I guess my answer on a sunny day like this is to 🧊🧊🧊🧊🧊 & enjoy the ride! 😎

It’s natural to let your buying price influence any sale decisions.

I’m as guilty as anyone. There again, with most of my SMT purchases being in the £3-£4 range, I guess I’ve more to lose.

But as nbe22 rightly says, SMT is designed to be a long term investment - 5 years min. So if the money’s not needed imminently, maybe the question should be where’s the SP more likely to be in 5 years’ time? Significantly higher or lower than now?

Of course, no-one knows the answer to that. You can rationalise til you’re blue in the face & still call things spectacularly wrong.

So maybe the answer is to hedge your bets. Not by shorting or by selling out completely if your target price is reached.

But by reducing slightly once you’ve made a decent profit. Then either adding that amount back in if the price subsequently dips. Or just relaxing in the knowledge you’ve reduced the average acquisition price with the rest of your holding….

Snook - quite. Anyone predicting an SP crash on a day the market’s closed should simply be ignored.

ID78 - you keep changing your argument about the impact of the Strait’s status.

Like I said, it WILL continue to have a major impact. End of.

LSBM - good summary!

To answer Ubik’s question, I plan to wait a couple of weeks to see if SMT revalues its SpaceX holding. More likely than not, SMT will rise anyhow - at least modestly - between now & the IPO, given SpaceX’s confirmation of its $1.75T valuation target.

I’ll then be looking to reduce slightly, assuming we hit £15.50ish. But I’ll retain the majority still. Just offload some to mitigate risk.

I can’t see current lofty tech/AI valuations lasting indefinitely and would rather miss out on the last wave up than risk being overexposed if/when the bubble bursts 🎈

ID78 - I get your point. But of course Trump’s actions will also have an impact.

If an eventual agreement is reached which unblocks the Strait & ditches Iran’s current exorbitant passage fees, that will a) reduce logistics costs & b) enable Qatar to export again freely once its production resumes.

Bk - yes, thanks for that. Suggests a meaningful fraction of Opti’s total sales has already exceeded breakeven & is into profit.

Unlike martinu, I do think overall breakeven is possible - indeed likely - within 18 months. Having had firsthand experience of selling on Amazon myself, I know how rapidly sales & profits can grow. Particularly in Opti’s case, which lends itself to Amazon’s Subscribe & Save model, where ongoing acquisition costs are naturally lower.

Aquae - fair enough. Everyone’s situation & risk appetite is different.

But NO investment is ever 100% about “when”. There’s always an element of “if”.

ID78 - “Now other suppliers have to offer better”.

Not sure I agree with that. Surely depends on where spot & long helium prices are (or are forecast to be) in 3 months’ time.

Currently it feels like the only way is up. But I suspect Trump won’t want the Iran conflict going on for anything like another 3 months, given the November midterms. And cessations there (however fragile or incomplete) might well change the mood music.

Aquae - agreed, but ‘twas ever thus. Except for SBTX holding value currently being hazier due to suspension.

Waiting on the sidelines is certainly one approach. But if Sweetbiotix news turns more positive, investors will likely have to pay more to buy back in, thanks to their risk aversion.

Doubt IQE will be operating anywhere near full capacity yet.

It MAY already have the order demand, but these things take time & new client commissioning typically needs 12 months +

ID78 - agreed. They’ll be negotiating any new supply agreements to start in a minimum of 3 months’ time. Until then, the current offtaker is signed up for 100%.

FS - by the time you tot up Opti’s PBX & SBTX holding values (albeit SBTX’s being unreliable whilst still suspended), then add on the £675,000 cash proceeds from their recent SBTX reduction, you won’t be far off Opti’s entire market cap.

In effect, Sweet etc. are being valued at around zero. Which looks plain daft to me still, particularly given how things appear to be progressing on the Sweet front.

Seewhat - SP isn't at a 50% discount though. That ignores the dilution effect of their £81m fundraise.

FS - it’s impossible to say what Opti’s holdings in other companies are worth whilst SBTX remains suspended.

Bryn - I think you’re right. Though the words “designed for” are presumably used for a reason.

FS - I guess consensus is there’s likely a fair gap between an investor taste trial & any meaningful commercialisation.

But Opti’s SP moves in mysterious ways. Just as it slumped from >30p this time two years ago. so it could also rise quite quickly & dramatically from its current 5.75p level. It’s done this several times before - often on the back of not very much.

Non believers (no names!) felt a taste trial in H1 improbable. Yet it’s now on the cards.

Maybe - just maybe - 2026 will finally be the year of underpromise & overdelivery…..