Member Info for Lord-Gideon

What are peoples thoughts on the effect of this 10% discount to the Oslo listing in the IPO? Over the next few days we would want the price to be higher otherwise the new investors are getting in at a price of around 170 p. Once that is all complete then they can immediately sell at the current 190 so I suspect when these shares come online we may see a short term drop as some take a quick profit on the opening Norwegian bell. But what do you all think, a pump and dump coming our way?

I don't want to see the 190s either, but the fact is we are only 2.5p away from that coming true and its still only Wednesday. I guess most big investors have decided there's nothing to see here until December and they may well be right. Once the dollars start rolling into our bank account we will climb much higher. If they stiff us for payments after months of little or no local sales then we are screwed. Did DNO know something we didn't or are we the miners canary testing the honesty of payments? I suppose one good thing comes of all this, it gives us a few months more to buy at cheaper prices - if you believe this is going to go well in the long run.

Sure, I think its a case of the good news coming last week and the dividends have now been reinvested mostly. So as we move into a quieter period awaiting the next round of meetings and get to see actual receipts for our share of the oil come, in this stock will become quiet and a little boring (by the last few weeks standard) and so become a little bearish. This is why I waited till today to reinvest my dividend. Next one will likely be 6 months away still. I know some have suggested there will be a special dividend for Christmas, but I don't see that happening. We won't even have a long term export agreement till December at the earliest and the payments will be handed over several months after sales. That plus the issue of arrears not resolved, we can't expect big bucks to roll in until the end of the year. And even then if all is sorted and payments stabilized, the firm will then bring back the idea of investing in the 55,000 bopd target and beyond, so they will need to keep a decent amount of cash on reserve for the next drone strike etc, budget for production expansion and only after all that will they throw the rest to us.

Now I do foresee increased dividends next year, but they will take time to charge up if the board maintain their wise focus and do things in the right order. Personally I'm happy that a slow build up will allow me more time to build up my holding before the price really does take off.

The one wildcard possibility is a merger with DNO, even that would take time, the Oslo listing being just a first step to test the water.

Long term here's an idea; APIKUR PLC......

Makes sense given this has happened today. If you stop Russian oil then you need an alternate supplier. Not only that but a super that has capacity for expansion, so yes, let's reinvest in drill baby drill.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8jm3lr7vkyo

Noticed 2 tankers heading for Ceyhan from the south today, the Zouzou and the Seacalm. Normally they come along the coast of Turkey to the north, perhaps they are expecting a sudden increase in available crude there. Here's hoping at least.

The perfect reason to let the others go first and see if their insurance premiums get burned by a drone again. Maybe after a few days without incident we will take it as safe. Wise move if you ask me, plus more of our oil is being retained for selling for higher prices via export.

Been observing the vessels approaching the Ceyhan port for a while now and there's only one heading our way where I don't recognize the name, the Lady Henrietta. Maybe I've missed that one before but there's hardly a massive rush to the jetty.

Well if he's saying this then that has to be the most solid confirmation we can have that the oil will NOT be flowing for months at a minimum. So who is producing this 130,000 barrels? There's been no further indication of drone attacks so why haven't we got production back up and running? Because they won't agree to pay us what we are owed would be my bet. Now if some production is going on by other firms then may this indicate the APIKUR coalition is beginning to break up as other firms allow themselves to be bought off cheap? Whatever the truth is it doesn't feel good for us right now does it.

Explains why oil was being delivered to SOMO even though the fields hadn't resumed pumping. It was in fact a total lie that 81,000 barrels had been handed over, so much so it might have well been printed in a Labour Party manifesto.

https://www.rudaw.net/english/business/05082025

Even more pertinent is to answer the question that none of these articles have even asked, let alone answered, which is HOW are these barrels being delivered to SOMO? Is it by truck, which would be mad, by pipeline but with no announcements, is it being pumped into a storage facility, if so where and what is its capacity, or is it purely an administrative transfer on paper without actually sending oil anywhere? A very good question without even a hint of an answer which is all the stranger given that the staff working for the IOCs and at the recipients end will know what's happening but nothing has leaked out. Which brings me to the final possibility, the barrels aren't actually being produced at all, let alone delivered. Perhaps these 80,000 barrels are being received by Randall Stephens?

T.Suna is currently docked at the BOTAS terminal, our BOTAS terminal that is. Even if only 81,000 barrels are delivered to SOMO today it has to physically go somewhere and I doubt they want a fleet of trucks camped outside Ghani's office asking for him to sign a receipt.

Sounds like they are testing to see if Baghdad will really pay up the salaries if they give this gesture first. Only problem is every day the issue of drones keeps our production offline and allows KRG not to deliver the full amount is another day that your next dividend is reduced. Lets be clear, we have no local sales now and so we are losing money fast until this stops.

As for the treaty with Turkey I'm hoping this is a strategy on their part to encourage the rest to stop messing about and do a deal otherwise they will do a new one with whichever side they feel is the least pain in the backside come next summer. Lets hope it works before we run out of money in the bank.

Either way it wouldn't get around the Iraqi Supreme court decision that only SOMO has the right to sell and export oil. So if a new agreement between Turkey and the KRG was to be made then Baghdad could be given the excuse to invade and confiscate oil fields which are being used illegally. If Turkey and the KRG were prepared to ignore that legal situation come September then they would have been exporting the oil already and ignore it now too.

Won't hold my breath but.......

https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/838869/kurdistan-oil-delegation-in-baghdad-for-key-talks-on-resuming-oil-exports

That would be nice, but in the short term are BP not more of a threat as they could well end up supplying Turkey with a full quota through the pipeline from Kirkuk and thereby rendering KRI oil unnecessary for exports? Of course BP would be well advised to invest in buying our assets rather than pandering to the whole net zero crap, but will they.....

But the treaty with Turkey being rewritten is not the main issue, the Feb 2022 Supreme Court ruling which stated only SOMO can export oil, regardless of where, how and by whom it is exported, is. Whatever new terms for the pipeline are agreed, which I don't believe Turkey would do with the KRI and ignoring the FGI anyway, will not get around the internal issue of sovereignty. FGI wants to see the PSC, the KRG and IOCs don't want to share them (why not?). So unless a new agreement is reached on that issue then no oil from Kurdistan will LEGALLY flow out of Iraq. And as we know our profits are much lower being sold internally and Baghdad knows this. If the issue was merely about the pipeline treaty then KRI could easily get around this by trucking the stuff out to Turkey or anywhere else and collecting international rates for it. This isn't happening because the pipeline issue is a red herring. Solve the internal Iraq dispute on oil sovereignty and contract legality then the export issues will miraculously be resolved as the buyers will want to get their hands on it immediately. Only other ways I could see the deadlock being broken is if:

1. KRI gains full independence as a state

2. KRG loses autonomy and IOCs accept new contracts direct with Baghdad.

Neither would be without much bloodshed. So I think our best hope is that the talks yield something, perhaps by offering to share the profits of corruption with all involved or some political backscratching for the forthcoming Iraqi elections in November I believe, which would also be in keeping with the speculation of an October resolution.

So about $36 million, just another $964 million to go then they can pay us in APIKUR what we are still owed. This chickenfeed from other sources illustrates quite clearly that this region is nothing without oil revenue, yet still they keep the taps shut.

On the contrary;

" In the case where there is no need for new amendment/agreement this Amendment shall be considered as extended for an additional 5 years period of time, unless a termination note is sent in writing by one of the two Sides to the other 1 (one) year before the expiration date of this Amendment"

In order for the amendment NOT to automatically renew for another 5 years then either side must have sent written notification of its termination to the other prior to Sept 2024. As far as I know, no such termination notification has been sent by either side and therefore we are stuck with the amendment as is until 2030 at the earliest.

Hence when Iraq can expect to be collecting a 4 year record low profit margin in it's southern fields too.......

Sea Majesty cruising into the gulf at last, but to which CEY terminal will it dock?