Member Info for Lord-Gideon

And is losing money every day due to no production, the auditors report 6 months overdue and the usual arguments about when production will be safe to resume not being resolved. And if a deal is struck then how much we will get paid per barrel. All against a backdrop of falling oil price which is necessary before we can be safe to resume production. Best we can hope for is a good news bad news day in the not too distant future: production resumed, price per barrel now down and we missed out on the main oil producer harvest time.

Now Iran is evacuating oil workers abroad with the stated aim of making the arab oil facilities legitimate targets of war. They won't just stop here, it puts our facilities and the pipeline right in the line of fire, facilities that have even poorer defences than the residential areas of Tel Aviv which is still getting hit hard. Seriously, those buying, my hats off to you for courage but we've had much brighter days and the price has tanked. There's something I don't know and I'd love to find out what.

Indeed, so with Kirkuk pumping hell for leather and filling the pipeline to capacity, what spare capacity does that leave for GKP, Genel and others for when we consider it safe to resume operations? Answer, Zero!

So it will either be back to local sales, trucking it across the border or we wait till the south reopens and takes Kirkuk oil away again.

Hold on, a few issues first.

1. Kirkuk oil going through pipeline, not ours.

2. This agreement is only temporary, once the crisis is over we will resume operations, the PoO will drop back and the temp agreement will cease. More meetings needed to make it permanent and we know how long these rounds of meetings lasts. Years and they only agree to schedule another one.

3. We could still have months of potential drone/terror attacks to avoid.

4. Turkey hasn't yet agreed a new export agreement, suppose Baghdad decides more southern oil should flow north in case history repeats itself rather than ours.

5. They will not announce a dividend tomorrow, they just can't under the current situation! They will say something along the lines of - "we will continue to monitor the situation and look to return free cash to shareholders when possible through dividends and buybacks with regular reviews of the payment policy later this year" You get the idea.

On the other hand if Baghdad still doesn't blink in this situation, putting political hatred above financial interest which is common enough in this part of the world, then that tells you they will never allow a long term agreement, especially when things are more stable and the southern ports reopen. I'd say this is an all or nothing moment.

I think that would be very foolish if they did commit to a dividend this month, we've been losing money all March, no way they can say for sure if and for how long we can start pumping again, arrears still outstanding and even less likely to be paid now the whole of Iraq is financially going to the wall and the ever present possibility the pipeline or a production facility could be taken out for months. I'd wait till at least a plausible ceasefire is in place and more info on whats happening with our contracts before I started spending our pipeline shutdown reserve fund. Plus what are they going to fund the field development plan with, we don't want to go back to borrowing again.

Share buyback taking advantage maybe, I recall the recent RNS updates casually mentioned something about maintaining the right to do so at opportunistic moments.

Wow, 0.75% of the company and a very rounded number too, is there someone out there looking to build a controlling stake in this firm while the SP OUGHT to be cheap for the foreseeable future? In as much as anything can be foreseen in war.

It could be some firms are buying up oil stocks in general due to oil price rises and not looking at the specific issues we have. Maybe we actually are pumping oil and its being kept secret to avoid making us a prime target for attack under the fog of war. Maybe the USA has offered to prop the share price up so the firms survive as they will be needed long term. Or just maybe people believe we will be fine it will all be over in a few weeks and with Iran tamed the ICG will have no choice but to give favorable terms to the kurdistan oil firms. If its the latter then it takes some guts to buy in so early as an awful lot can go wrong.

Indeed, the galloping POO would be great for us if we were but producing, but we aren't. I have to admire the determination of those buying at these prices, seriously, it takes courage to keep piling in. Meanwhile other UK businesses, far away from any threat of physical destruction and able to pass the cost of inflation onto customers, are tanking. I suspect the Kurds will eventually attempt some kind of ground campaign, at least in the north western part of Iran, but not until the US and Israel can demonstrate the air is totally clear of drones and missiles. Then all we will need to worry about are the ground based terrorists. Now if an independent Kurdistan is created that would be great for us, but surely you wouldn't be betting on that just yet, far too many obstacles to clear first, like the ICG for a start. Unless there's a deal being done, Iraq can pinch a bit of Iran in return for letting Erbil go free....

Given Iran's only leverage on the world stage is hiking oil prices to hurt their fellow muslim nations who aren't helping them in the pocket, and that they have attacked oil infrastructure in many of those middle eastern countries, would it be a stretch of the imagination too far that the target below might have been Ceyhan?

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/4/nato-defences-destroy-missile-fired-from-iran-over-mediterranean-turkiye

I already did when the aircraft carriers started closing in. Hope to be back holding just in time for the return of the Shah. Should the firms interests survive.

Lets be clear, we are losing money every day, no production, even for local sales, the risk of our assets being destroyed and a pipeline agreement still to be renewed that won't have the same level of focus on in the Arab world it did last week. We can forget any dividend being announced this month as every bit of cash will be needed until we see peace break out. If it drags on for months we could be below £1 even if the Woods review is favorable. As for debts owed I think those government funds will be going to reconstruction and refugee management, assuming it even exists rather than being stolen.

Once all the above is resolved then that really will be a buying opportunity, but not before.

I remember them once saying it will all be over by Christmas. Just as oil prices spike we rightly have to shut down and are no longer even getting local sales any more. One drone onto our pipeline and we could be stuck for many months. I'm amazed how well the price is holding up considering. Is it too late to have these additional dangers added to the Woods report to boost the cost of production we get paid, I'd say its a fair point to include?

Lots of orders for 3, 4 and 5 shares going through right now, rather unusual......

Also if you bought for £1.70 and the price on the opening bell Wednesday is £2.05, what would you do? This rise does look great but surely it will, like it has in the past, reverse itself in the next few weeks time. I'm waiting to hear confirmation of long term deals and repayment of money owed before I get too carried away.

You can tell the difference between a judgement, and a simple stating of a few facts followed by an open question?

Then it shed 50 p in just 3 weeks as the market realised that we were only going to be paid a fraction of international prices and that with a delay. Promises to make up the difference in this part of the world are unreliable. 2 years plus and still no sign of the $153 million we are owed, so how long will last months price difference take to be coughed up?

Yes I think so too, its in our interest to put the price up selling back and forth to ourselves then dropping it so the new buyers don't get shares cheaper than those of us who have been around for a lot longer and taken more of the risk. I anticipate a correction to start on Monday, running into the selling of new shares on Wednesday. Nothing dramatic, just back to where we were a few weeks ago as nothing material for the company has changed in that period and last nights news indicates a bit of a drop in the price of brent. I could be wrong but that would only be if Norwegians value the firm more than those in London - they might, they might not.

The share price rise today can easily be explained by the corresponding rise in the price of Brent, back over $70 for the first time since July. If the Iran issue goes quiet again then this will quickly be reversed. Not saying we don't have many positives, but our good news isn't expected till at least March.

Indeed, but what I'm getting at is, with so much news likely to come our way it will be hard to unpick the effect of this from the wider range of factors on the share price. For instance if I were a large firm with a HQ in Scandinavia then I could sell my holding now, move the money then buy them back again at a discount. And not just a discount, but right before an estimated 8/9p dividend...... In short until this deal goes through why would anybody buy at the current price in London until we see what these new buyers do? I know its only a small listing, about half a million shares, but this is still diluting the company as I understand, they are not already existing shares, and half a million shares dumped in a day would make a dent. I'm thinking back to the days of the Royal Mail listing. I took my allowance and bagged a £1.20 profit first day. It could be very interesting and choppy in the coming weeks and even without bombs falling on Iran.