Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
The February 9th auction was delayed until March 7.
jzchat: don't forget that Red Rock Biofuels plant has Velocys' FT reactors. That plant could be up and running before the end of the year. The other reference projects you mentioned might start up in 2027.
Short run: they should try to purchase the Red Rock Biofuels which will be auctioned on February 9th. I am sure they have done enough due diligence to assess whether this is a good investment. The upside is that it would allow Velocys to get to market with their own technology quickly. The downside is that the gasification technology is less reliable.
Also short run: they need to sign up strategic investors who are willing get both project off the ground.
jzchat: agreed that a lot has changed over 10 years, particularly in increased competition: from the startup side: LanzaTech, Fulcrum, alfanar and from the major side: Sasol, ExxonMobil, Chevron, bp, TotalEnergies,Shell. Some of these companies are already ahead...some without government support.
jzchat: I appreciate your optimism but Velocys has a strong technology and a strong IP position for at least 10 years and the investments grants and private investors have not rolled in. Why would they do that now?
What the heck has Worley done in the last 3 years? Where is the FEED for both projects? That has been promised over and over again in the last 4 years.
What happened to Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation who was appointed as the lender of record
and as its financial advisor? See e.g. https://www.velocys.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Announcement-of-Velocys-fund-raise-15-July-2019.pdf
Same issue with Koch Project Solutions
https://www.velocys.com/2021/06/30/velocys-u-s-saf-project-update/
"Subject to completion of due diligence and integrated licensor work, KPS may be awarded a turnkey engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract to deliver the project facility, including an integrated performance guarantee wrap backed by a parent company guarantee."
"The Company continues to retain Worley as engineering partner for the development of pre-feasibility, feasibility and fully integrated technology packages for all Velocys projects, including the planned FEED phase for this Bayou Fuels project."
Are they ditching Worley and Koch? Is this not a material fact which has to be disclosed?
Well said, GG. I just wanted to add that I am afraid that Velocys wasted their technological advantage by not moving faster on both Altalto and Bayou Fuels. They have been trying to find significant partners to join them for more than 3 years! Maybe the best outcome is an acquisition of our minnow by one of the sharks...
jzchat: it has bearing on VLS. They surely had ongoing revenues from engineering help at start-up and catalyst replacements in their forecast.
Unless Velocys buys this plant cents to the dollar…
Another article on the subject: https://www.oregonlive.com/authcallback/?afterURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.oregonlive.com%2Fbusiness%2F2023%2F01%2Fnever-opened-300-million-plus-biofuels-refinery-facing-foreclosure-in-southern-oregon.html&code=vbwaePjeRAzoZsnF3EogIiofRZy_vZ1b5G66-jOphPHp5&state=R0JkbFNmaW1TVUcxXzZXMXFZQVQ0N0lSanhhRUdhYUxBZzljaE9aVE9kSA%3D%3D
Velocys has tried before to buy a unfinished FT plant before, they should try this one as well.
Red Rock went into foreclosure - https://www.trainorders.com/discussion/read.php?1,5599158. Red Rock installed Velocys FT reactors and was supposedly another reference of the Velocys technology. Maybe Velocys could buy the Red Rock Biofuels plant in Lakeview, OR which should be close to completion.
The German federal government is funding a consortium to develop the green methanol to SAF route. BASF and Thyssenkrupp Uhde are the heavyweights in this collaboration.
https://www.biobased-diesel.com/post/germany-funds-new-consortium-to-develop-novel-process-technology-for-saf-production
GG: Q1: this negative carbon intensity is not as important as the projects economics
Q2: Alfanar, LanzaTech/LanzaJet and Fulcrum are not necessary UK competitors but they compete in the UK.
Regarding SAF produced now: all SAF is produced from agricultural fats and waste oils. The producers are Neste, TotalEnergies, Air bp, and World Energy.
What we need is the Final Investment Decision not rework of simulation data.
Expatbrat: Here are the correct dates: Velocys was founded in 2001 and Oxford Catalysts in 2005. Oxford Catalysts went public in 2006 and acquired Velocys in 2008. Oxford Catalysts Group changed their name to Velocys plc in 2013.
LanzaTech and AMCI Acquisitions' plans for the merger can be found here: https://sec.report/Document/0001104659-22-057803/
The RNS gives little info on the status of the FEED for both projects. The FEED is important because it is a prerequisite for funding/investment. Wareborn states about Ashtabula : “The targeted commencement of FEED next year will be a key milestone following which Velocys expects to generate licence revenue from the project.” Nothing was said about the FEED of Altalto. This is a continuation of the FEED story I posted on June 30, 2021. From his statement one can deduct that the FEED has not started yet. Why is that?
Another novelty is the “Establishment of a Scientific Advisory Board with global experts to provide a forum for science and technology-based discussions based on independent, objective advice and guidance.” Why now after 20+ years of development?
Thanks, Expatbrat.
Expatbrat:
- Fulcrum is up and running
- You did not answer my question about your source for Schubert's choice of the BP/Johnson Matthey FT reactors