Does anyone know Octopus who just came in?
Fulcrum is using ThermoChem Recovery International's gasification system to convert MSW into syngas. Velocys will use the same technology for Altalto and Bayou Fuels. Fulcrum's Sierra Biofuels plant has been up and down but it is not clear which part of the technology caused that outages.
GG: The FT technology is around 10% of such a plant, investment wise. As long as one is not able to feed continually and consistently syngas into the FT unit, the process is not viable. This is Expatbrat's point.
Here is a recent update of LanzaTech's activity in Belgium with ArcelorMittal: https://corporate.arcelormittal.com/media/news-articles/arcelormittal-and-lanzatech-announce-first-ethanol-samples-from-commercial-flagship-carbon-capture-and-utilisation-facility-in-ghent-belgium
And a less recent update on LanzaJet's SAF plant in Sopreton, GA: https://www.lanzajet.com/lanzajet-achieves-next-major-milestone-with-innovative-sustainable-fuels-production-technology-fully-constructed-at-its-freedom-pines-fuels-facility/
Please compare Velocys' progress with their two biofuels projects with Arcadia's. Here is their latest announcement: https://www.topsoe.com/press-releases/first-commercial-efuels-for-aviation-plant-in-denmark-on-schedule-for-2026-arcadia-selects-topsoe-and-sasol-technology?utm_medium=email&_hsmi=257694083&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9MCm1J9hLw7bti_e5CEQkl1IYnaMUwpLYQEiOAuygRkCEhkWOyNClzoqCG5EO0n8LkmavSmpXqEE2zHAqt_YEJFfQLqA&utm_content=257694083&utm_source=hs_email
Specifically look at the timeline of the Vordingborg plant and compare it to Velocys' plants.
GG: I agree with your statement on understaffed commercial department. My point is that business development people are not necessarily the commercial people you need. They need hardcore sales people.
They added another business development person to their overly staffed business development department! They have already an senior VP BD, a VP New Projects, and a VP Waste to Fuels. What have they achieved in the last 5 years? The first announcement about Altalto dates from September 2017. Bayou Fuels applied for a USDA loan guarantee in 2017! Both of these projects are still in the design phase. The only other development was the Japanese connection, which already existed from before 2010! Which business was developed?
The future of Lakeview's Red Rock Biofuel plant was laid out in Next Renewables Fuels' press release:
https://nextrenewables.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/next-lakeview-rng-press-release-final.pdf
It means that Velocys' FT technology will not be used if Lakeview RNG plans to produce renewable natural gas (RNG). The technology to produce RNG is called methanation. Here is a good description of this process: https://www.gti.energy/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Low-Carbon-Renewable-Natural-Gas-RNG-from-Wood-Wastes-Final-Report-Feb2019.pdf.
This means that there will be no further revenues from this plant, no engineering support, no catalyst supply for Velocys,
Next Renewable Fuels buys Red Rock Biofuels assets. A couple of Oregon papers reports about the results of the auction. The articles are for subscribers but the titles tell the story...Maybe the Velocys reactors will operate overthere...
I wish you well in these trying times and look forward to reading your posts.
GG: thanks for the clarification. I understand your position.
GG: Welcome back!
Please respond to my earlier post which says: "I remember you talking about this research report last year. Would you consider sharing the report with all members of this message board?"
GG: I remember you talking about this research report last year. Would you consider sharing the report with all members of this message board?
GG: allow me to clarify my statement. Investors and government have different objectives when to invest, in the investor’s case, or provide a grant, in the government’s case. Hence both entities carry out their due diligence differently according to their objectives. E.g. the government does not expect a return on their investment, the investor does.
GG: investors’ due diligence is more stringent than the government since they are investing there own money…
Thurgaton: it is Envia that produced an end product. Red Rock Biofuels is still incomplete and is being sold. The leak has nothing to do with the Velocys technology proper. However, when leaks occur which ultimately cause the plant to shut down permanently, it does not generate confidence in Velocys' project management ability for a potential investor.
An investor's due diligence of a £500M project, aka Altalto, is very stringent. Two major categories are considered: the experience of the project developer and the technology proposed. Velocys has so far not realized any major projects and their proprietary FT technology has been demonstrated in the Envia plant and in a Japanese biomass-to-jet fuel demonstration plant. Unfortunately, their FT reactors sold to Red Rock Biofuels have not been used yet. Another key element before an investor engages is the staying power of the licensor and catalyst providing company. That was addressed in Expatbrat's post. The investor must make sure that Velocys will be able to provide catalyst for the lifetime of the project. Especially, since this is a sole source case: only Velocys catalyst can be used in the Velocys microchannel reactors.
Here is a list of United's investments in the SAF space:
- 2015: $30M investment in Fulcrum Bioenergy - a direct competitor
- 2021: joint investment with Honeywell in Alder Fuels and a take-off agreement - a direct competitor
- 2022: $37.5M investment in NEXT Renewables - not a direct competitor
In addition, United also invest in electric aircraft companies: Archer Aviation, Heart Aerospace and ZeroAvia.
Fulcrum Bioenergy broke ground for Phase 2 of their Sierra Biofuels plant on May 16, 2018. The first drop of product was announced on December 20, 2022. The first railcar of syncrude left was shopped on February 9, 2023.
Phase 1 of the Sierra Project is the Feedstock Processing Facility was at the time of the ground breaking already operational. Phase 2 does not include the upgrading. Currently the upgrading is done at the Marathon refinery in Storey County, Nevada. The Altalto project includes both the feedstock processing and the upgrading.
Velocys targets the financial close of Altalto for 2024. This means that the groundbreaking will be in 2024, hence the first product delivery in 2029 at the earliest.
Sasol and Topsoe joining forces...
https://www.sasol.com/sasol-and-topsoe-accelerate-growth-sustainable-aviation-fuel-saf
Also have a look at Sasol's website: https://sasol.com/index.php/our-businesses/sasol-ecoft
This is daunting competition for Velocys.