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Hi MadP - I couldn't open the first link but I did find a file on Youtube so assume its the same one - talks about there research team who investigated bats and who are now missing / silenced / dead - is that the one? It took about 6 weeks for the Chinese Govt to come clean and admit there was indeed a new virus. Dr Li (the whistleblower who died of CV) was widely praised by people in China and the police issued a rare apology for silencing him. Both of these actions are rare rebukes to the Central Party. It's not fair to blame ordinary Chinese people for withholding info. In the West, Govt / political parties etc are by the people and for the people. In China, people exist to serve the interests of the Party. The Party must be protected at all costs. China is governed by Central Party grand planning and this is interpreted at various levels of local government which is open to corruption and can be manipulated to suit the greater needs of the Party. When the CV was first taking hold, local authorities in Wuhan stopped testing. This wasn't to avoid treating patients - but for a far more important reason. By avoiding testing and admitting that patients exist, the Party is protected. They tried desperate attempts at containment, but they tried to do it from a political perspective rather than a medical one. In fact the Central Party took a very hands off approach as they prefer to bask in the Good News and leave the accountability and bad news to the local level. Once the virus spread and the economy started to be affected, the Party had to adopt more stringent matters - in part to protect its people but mostly to ensure the survival of the Party.

The second video - I have seen these clips before and the reporters claims are consistent with how these two issues have been reported here. As I said above, Grand Party plans are open to local interpretation if it serves the Party locally. Just because Central Party declares "Wuhan Open" doesn't mean other jurisdictions have to accept this until specifically told they must do so. Its hard to know the real reason for the skirmish. Yes, the neighbouring province might worry about reinfection from outsiders (about 90% of cases here in Taiwan are imported), there may be food shortages so they want to preserve stocks for themselves, their infection rates might be high so they want to avoid local transmission. I dont think there has been any official comment on what happened.

The urns - absolutely the feeling is the numbers given my China are not 100% accurate. It is also possible many people died through lack of medical care for other conditions as hospitals where death traps and totally overrun with CV cases. This happened during winter where temps drop to 2C and lack of medical care, food shortages etc must have resulted in more deaths.

As I am typing this I just got a bonkers statistic - Taiwan is one of only 6 countries in the world where schools are open. That is crazy.

Pt.1

Quarantine has been declared throughout Georgia due to COVID-19, – the Prime Minister of Georgia Giorgi Gakharia stated at a briefing held after the conclusion of a session of the Interagency Coordination Council on the coronavirus.

The universal quarantine regime has been introduced as part of the new measures to prevent the spread of the new coronavirus.

“We have decided to significantly tighten measures within the framework of the state of emergency. Effectively – and I would like to emphasize this – effectively, we are declaring universal quarantine, which will begin tomorrow, at 8:00 in the morning, ” – Giorgi Gakharia said.

Gakharia said the citizens will be required to observe curfew between 21:00 – 06:00 from March 31.

According to Prime Minister, the quarantine means the following:

“• It is completely forbidden to travel using any type of public transport (including the subway), both within and between cities and municipalities.

• It is only permissible to travel using light vehicles (including taxis), and only if the recommendation of the Ministry of Healthcare has been taken into consideration, i.e., if there are no more than three persons in an automobile, with the essential condition that the two persons are seated in the rear seat. This is a very important recommendation and relevant state bodies will make the appropriate decisions in case of noncompliance.

• Also, it is only permissible to carry passengers for the purpose of transporting employees of facilities of strategic importance in an organized and safe manner.

• Gathering of more than three persons is forbidden, with the exception of grocery stores and pharmacies, where maintaining a social distance of two meters is mandatory.

• Furthermore, rules governing the operation of enterprises that are permitted by the government will be set out separately; they will have separate protocols that will be agreed with the Ministry of Healthcare. We are doing this so that the economy can continue to function and to ensure that the potential that the Georgian economy possesses is not brought to a standstill, as well as, of course, to ensure that our citizens can retain their jobs as much as possible.

• Our citizens above 70 years of age will be forbidden from leaving their homes, unless they are going to their nearest grocery store, their nearest pharmacy, or their nearest medical facility.

• If our citizens above 70 years of age live alone, the Ministry of Healthcare and the Ministry of Economy, as well as local municipalities, are obligated to provide them with assistance.

Pt.4

This measure provided for the gradual abolition of export duties on oil with an increase in the tax on its production in the Russian Federation. This was not beneficial for Belarus, since it bought Russian oil without duties in the conditions of the Eurasian Economic Union. It is unlikely that Belarus will increase oil imports in the conditions of its excess and lower prices for oil products from local enterprises.

US-Russian antagonism

The current oil crisis is compared with the events in the middle of 80s, when Saudi Arabia sharply increased production and so collapsed the world oil prices, which was one of the reasons for the collapse of the USSR in 1991. The Soviet Union, like modern Russia, replenished the treasury by exporting energy. Co-owner of the Lukoil oil company Leonid Fedun believes that Russian Urals oil may fall in price to $ 15 per barrel and not only Russia but also Saudi Arabia will suffer from the crisis.

In his opinion, the United States will benefit, because citizens' incomes will increase by 6%, despite the blow to the oil industry. Not everything is so simple. The situation is similar, but theories about the conspiracy of the USA and Saudi Arabia against Russia do not correspond to modern realities. If in the 80s the reduction in oil prices was economically profitable for the United States (there was a ban on oil exports), and the country imported it in large volumes, then after the discovery of shale oil production technology and the resumption of oil export from 2015, reduced world oil prices will not be beneficial to the USA.

The owner of the Oval Office emphasized that the decline in oil prices will lead to negative consequences for the industry. The oil crisis is a challenge for Trump on the eve of the presidential election, since American oil workers are one of his constituency groups. Exxon Mobil has reduced sales by 20% since the crisis began, and Chevron - by 12%. The US government even agreed to purchase oil for strategic reserves from US companies to support them in times of crisis.

Related: Collapse in oil prices + coronavirus: Consequences of global crisis for Ukraine
Due to the oil crisis, relations between the US and Russia will not become more constructive. Russian companies are competitors for Americans in the global oil market. The head of Rosneft, Igor Sechin, claims that due to lower prices, expensive shale oil from the United States will leave the market.

US oil companies are demanding that the White House intervene in the crisis, but is against the introduction of any quotas to limit production. In such circumstances, Washington has two options for overcoming the situation: either subsidize oil companies in times of crisis, or oust Russia from the oil market by imposing sanctions and prohibiting other countries from buying Russian oil. It is necessary to achieve a reduction in oil production in the world.

Pt.3

Oil crisis and Ukraine

For Ukraine, the crisis in the global oil market has dual consequences. Since we import most of the consumed oil and oil products, as well as natural gas, price reduction is beneficial. In 2015-2019 Ukraine increased oil imports from 227.7 to 790.6 thousand tons. During this period, diesel fuel consumption increased from 5.45 to 6.83 million tons per year, liquefied hydrocarbons - 890 thousand to 1.82 million tons. The benefits of lowering gas and diesel prices will go to the population, transport companies and agricultural enterprises that fuel their equipment.

Ukrainian analyst Oleksandr Martynenko does not believe that there will be a significant reduction in fuel prices, because, in addition to the price of oil, they are affected by excise taxes and markups of dealers. In his opinion, a reduction in the income of oil exporters will entail a reduction in the prices of iron ore and steel that Ukraine sells abroad. Amid the crisis and the coronavirus pandemic, projects in the field of construction, engineering, where metal is used, are frozen in different countries.

Lower prices for oil and petroleum products are not beneficial for certain types of Ukrainian business, especially in the lockdown. From 2013 to 2019 gasoline consumption in Ukraine decreased from 3.47 to 1.85 million tons. The prospect for oil product importers, owners of oil depots and over 9 000 gas stations and 2 000 gas stations is not the best.

Galnaftogaz company controls about 19% of the market of gas stations in Ukraine. Most gas stations are owned by the AVIAS, ANP, SENTOSA of Igor Kolomoisky and Gennady Bogolyubov. In recent years, new gas stations grew in Ukraine, with opened cafes and mini-markets.

An unpleasant surprise was the decline in world oil prices for Ukrainian oil companies like Ukrnafta, Naftegazvydobuvannia or Boryslav. Ukraine has a high cost of oil production compared to Saudi Arabia. In 2015, production costs for a barrel of oil in Ukraine was less than $ 20, but including taxes and rents, reached $ 45.

The cooperation of Ukraine with Belarus in the field of oil transit this year is in question. In February, the Belneftekhim concern was exploring the possibility of importing Azerbaijani oil using the Odesa-Brody Ukrainian pipeline.

In March, Odesa hosted oil tankers from Azerbaijan. The search of Belarus for alternative ways of importing energy was facilitated by disagreements between Presidents Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin over oil prices. Amid falling global prices for black gold and China’s refusal to buy Russian oil, Moscow turned to Minsk and agreed to compensate for the tax manoeuvre.

Pt.2
Apparently, the Arabians have long considered the possibility of knocking out their competitors and have long been choosing the right moment. Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman has ordered an increase in oil production from 12 to 13 million barrels per day over the next two years. According to Obaid, since 2012, Saudi Aramco has invested over $ 35 billion in modern oil production technologies, and now it has the opportunity to increase production from 1.5 to 2 billion barrels of oil per day.

It is planned to begin oil production even in the border neutral zone disputed with Kuwait. The coronavirus pandemic, to which the attention of the world elites directed, as well as the intransigence of Moscow played into the hands of Riyadh. Russia did not want to reduce oil production in the framework of OPEC +, as it was tired of US expansion in the oil markets of Europe and Asia.

The Kremlin's plans were to direct investments in the development of new Russian deposits. Everything looks as if the Saudi authorities decided to teach Russia a lesson for not wanting to follow the general rules of the game and at the same time satisfy their interests. It is not surprising why Russian Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov accused the Arabians of disrupting the OPEC + deal.

The Arabians specifically provoked a crisis in the global oil market in order to weaken competitors and take control of new niches. Saudi Arabia has a number of competitive advantages that will mitigate the negative consequences for its oil and gas industry. According to Saudi Aramco Chairman Amin Nasser, Saudi Arabia has the lowest cost of oil production in the world - less than $ 9 per barrel.

Even in the face of a sharp drop in oil prices, the Arabians will still be able to make a profit, even in smaller volumes. Khalid al-Dabbah, Saudi Aramco's director of financial affairs, emphasized that shareholders are ready to drop oil prices below $ 30 per barrel. Obaid believes that Saudi Arabia will be able to cover all losses from the crisis through savings of $ 500 billion.

But competitors, which cost of oil production is more expensive (USA - over $ 23 per barrel, Russia - over $ 19 per barrel) will have to reduce oil production and free up niches in the world market for Saudi Arabia. The head of the Russian Tatneft oil company Nail Maganov said that an increase in oil production in April was allegedly unacceptable due to the influence of coronavirus on the world energy market (in fact, due to the demarche of Saudi Arabia). If oil companies from other countries increase oil production, they will sell it at a loss.

Pt.1 No mention of FRR though lots of comments on US companies in general / strategy

Saudi Arabia, which has the world's largest oil fields, increased production after it failed to convince Russia to agree to cut production by 1.5 million barrels per day to stabilize world oil prices.

In connection with the cancellation of flights, ground transportation, and shutdown of production during the coronavirus pandemic, fuel consumption in the world decreased, and oil fell in price. The price of Brent crude oil fell from $ 69 to $ 50 per barrel from early January to March 6, but after the demarche of Saudi Arabia collapsed to $ 27.9 on March 24. Previous OPEC agreements to reduce production expire on April 1.

Saudi Arabia's New Oil Strategy
At first glance, it may not seem logical to increase oil production amid declining demand. The goal of Saudi Arabia is not to increase profits from oil sales, but to free markets from competitors. This version is confirmed by the opinion of those close to the royal court. Former Saudi government adviser Nawaf Obaid believes the OPEC + summit in Vienna marked the kingdom’s transition from partnership with Russia to a new long-term policy aimed at expanding its share of the global black gold market.

So decided the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, in whose hands considerable power was concentrated. Under him, Saudi Arabia began to pursue a more decisive and offensive foreign policy, as evidenced by the provision of military assistance to the Yemeni government in the fight against Iran-oriented Houthi rebels, the international isolation of its regional rival Qatar (with help of the UAE, Egypt and several other Arab countries), the killing of one of the main critics of the Riyadh authorities - journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

The authorities of Saudi Arabia decided to take a chance this time. Recently, the situation on the sales markets is not in favor of the Arabians. America is no longer a gold mine. After Donald Trump came to power, the United States began to extract and export more oil than to buy abroad. From 2013 to 2018 oil supplies from Saudi Arabia to the United States fell from 1.32 million to 901 thousand barrels per day. In 2019, the kingdom's share of the US oil market was 6%, the same as Russia. Last year, the United States became the world's largest oil exporter (over 13 million barrels per day).

Russians are next to the Arabians in the Chinese market: in 2019, Russia's share was 15.3%, and that of Saudi Arabia - 16.8%. Amid the coronavirus pandemic, China has reduced its consumption of hydrocarbons. Russia dominates the EU oil market, and over the past three years, its share has increased from 30% to 39% in the Turkish market. The development of energy-saving technologies and green energy in the West is not in favor of oil suppliers. The share of renewable sources in energy production in Germany and Finland has exceeded 40%. In such circumstances, competing in the oil market has become mor

Pt.2
At the same time, the Saudi-Russian oil war exploded just as Uzbekistan approved major state investments in science, digital education and the overall economy. Indeed, Tashkent cut its original plans from 320 projects to 284, probably due to the sharp oil price reductions and the coronavirus (Trend.az, March 3). President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has also announced planned measures to grant tax holidays to companies working in the tourism, transportation, pharmaceutical and light industry sectors. He additionally called for reviewing debtors’ terms for their loan repayment as well as waiving fines for overdue debt (President.uz, March 18).

Azerbaijan, too has pledged to defend its economy through a program of “preventive action.” On the basis of a prior scenario planning process, it aims to devise a package of measures to meet the expected challenges coming from collapsing energy prices. This South Caucasus republic, in fact, starts from a more stable baseline compared to many of its neighbors: by the end of 2019, Azerbaijan’s strategic foreign currency reserves were 100 percent higher than its GDP, and foreign currency reserves were six times its foreign debt. Therefore, the Central Bank in Baku expressed confidence that it can meet any challenge and that Azerbaijan has the potential to “balance the situation without making any emotional decisions” (Azernews.az, March 16). Meanwhile, the Azerbaijani prime minister has been tasked with developing “a single action plan to reduce the effects of fluctuations in coronavirus and energy markets on the economy” (Apa.az, March 19).

Finally, Kazakhstan has now locked down its two largest cities, Almaty and Nur-Sultan (formerly Astana) as well as suspended flight and train travel outside major urban areas. It has also announced a major economic package providing cheaper credit and tax incentives, while cutting back on audits and promoting employment (Primeminister.kz, March 17). Theaters, cinemas and other public gathering spaces are being closed, but they will also be exempted from one year’s worth of property taxes and interest on loans (Primeminister.kz, March 17). The government is setting aside $750 billion for infrastructure spending that is intended to provide 120,000 jobs exclusively for Kazakhstani nationals. Banks will be required to allow businesses and entrepreneurs experiencing liquidity problems to defer repayment on loans until after June (Krisha.kz, March 17). And President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has instructed his government to firmly deal with avoiding artificial price increases in everyday consumer staples (Akorda.kz, March 18). Beyond that, the government has announced steps to ensure duty-free imports of meats, vegetables, cereals and dairy products (Primeminister.kz, March 18).

A follow on in sorts to the article from the Atlantic Council. No mention of FRR, Georgia or Ukraine.

Pt.1

"As the novel coronavirus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic continued to spread across the Eurasian landmass and beyond, the energy-producing states of the South Caucasus and Central Asia were dealt a separate, serious economic blow by Russia. Specifically, Russia’s decision to pull out of the OPEC+ curtailed oil production deal with Saudi Arabia (see EDM, March 16, 19, 23) clearly did not take into account the impact on its regional partners Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, which are also heavily reliant on hydrocarbon sales. Thus, even before these countries began to register significant numbers of cases of coronavirus, they announced various stimulus plans to rescue their economies from the Russo-Saudi oil price war. The eventual onset of the pandemic throughout the region has since intensified that trend.

The lack of foresight exhibited by Moscow has already generated misgivings among Russian high officials as the oil war—coupled with the economic consequences of the pandemic scare (see EDM, March 17, 23)—has led to the plummeting of global energy prices below $20 per barrel and to a major fall in the price of the ruble. On March 18, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov had to admit that Moscow was not satisfied with the falling prices, which were then at $27 a barrel, despite a rash of earlier statements claiming Russia could weather the storm and outlast the Saudis and producers in the United States, the real target of Moscow’s machinations. Since then, the situation has clearly worsened (TASS, March 18).

Consequently, governments around the Caspian basin have had to announce stimulus plans even as they now confront a global pandemic with obviously depleted means to deal with this mounting health crisis. Moreover, in some cases, the virus itself has affected energy demand from the region’s most important customers. PetroChina, for example, issued a claim of force majeure to severely reduce its purchases, leading to a curtailment of deliveries from Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. While figures were not readily available from Tashkent, Kazakhstani Energy Minister Nurlan Nogayev admitted that gas exports to China had been suspended since mid-January and were down 20–25 percent (Natural Gas World, March 12).

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