Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Need to go away from watching this sp. hahaha, always a plunge waiting each day. No buyers, until knee jerk plunge. Still holding my stocks for next six months or more. Duffy better not screw up. No pink diamonds unfortunately.
see whether it will rise towards 16th Sept; if no surprise bad results on 16th Sept on fcf; that will be good.
then it is 31Oct Brexit; whereby all shares will be thrashed near to end Oct.
I think only after these storms will PDL rise, hang in for rough ride. Would not see 20p by year end; at best 15p.
just my gut feel.
Not disputing the facts on ZAR value reduction is good for operational cost reduction, thus leading to better fcf, and Duffy factored that above 15+ in 2021 to 2022. SA economy poor under Cyril R; so blessing to PDL on cost.
I think this is optimistic 15+ for 2020 to 2022 ; would rather have the 150 to 200 mln fcf based on 14+ Rand exchange rate.
You never know what Trump does to the Fed.
The Capex has two buckets, sustainable and expansion. For the next 3 years, expansion bucket is low, ie much cash already spend at Culinan expanded. There is still expansion capex but only if there is good rate of return.
Anyway, in Africa mining, cash must be conserved, as anything can happened, for example strikes or greedy new govt. Lonmin struggles for years to even strive with a few mln cash flow. This is even more dire with nothing but misfortune incidents.
I do not think we should be looking beyond 3 years in PDL investment, at most end 2020 to exit for a good return, say 30 to 40p region. Beyond this depends on fcf and most important debt reduction. Penny stocks are risky, can catapult or explode on take off.
Duffy is going to gloss up 16sept presentation of life of mines, with the aimed to improve book value. Likely to please BEE banks with longer life mines values. D4E is unlikely in a year or 2, more likely right issue after one year if and only if operation excellence screw-up.
Duffy has been skirting the debt question, especially target debts reduction year on year rather than just focusing on paying 24mln each year for 3 years. He has not offer much, like assets sales and just operational excellence. This erode confidence and this is where shorters took advantage on size of debts is more than 3x ebitda. The added salt to wound, was large fund has to unload once certain target market cap has been breached, likely 100 mln. We have Blackrock, and now possibly TRowe unloading, full or partial? No other large funds buying. So AT/bots has a party time right now. But all party will end, like CD rightly mentioned on Blackrock finished unloading and so drift upwards (without any good news from pdl).
For the interim one year, Duffy must demonstrate fcf delivery and debt reduction. I hope he can be more proactive like PMO CEO (also a bum) which was eventually cornered to have a detail yearly debt reduction plan target. Shorted like hell when crude price slump, 2 bln debts at a point in time, which every analyst says bankrupt is inevitable. Still here today.
Forget about finding big stones to reduce debts, each stone is just added bonus to debt reduction. Focus on debt reduction baseline without big stone finds. This would induce rerate sp when good fcf and debt reduction appears hand in hand.
Agree, still too early.
BEE banks love the 7.25% coupon, give PDL 3 years, if go bankrupt still gets the mines for assets sales. 3 years interest 72 Mln. Debt 430 Mln minus 72 Mln, left 360 mln at worst. Mines would sell easily for 500 Mln.
BEE in no hurry, get interests payment and has the mines as collateral. By 3 years up, if PDL wants refinancing, increase a bit coupon rate.
Current sp is not on fundamental, merely big hedge fund offloading to buy cheap dividends blue chips, rare opportunity with market trade war repercussion.
Closure in 2020, may not help much, as it is famous for pink diamonds. Supply out eight demand, since demand confidence is wreak by Trump trade wars that impact global growth.
May be by 2020, we have both Trump and Argyle out of action.