Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
The so has been falling badly, yet only one rns on cashflow and refinancing. I suspect some poor sales issues, otherwise bod would have rush with another RNs to counter sp drastic drop. More pain to come. Would wait to see price recovery only to buy. Target below £2.20 to take a dip. Vested interest.
Penny stock soon. Day of even £1.80 is long gone. Business is getting pummeled by SFO and covid. Only hope for pi is someone willing to buy this company. This sp will drift below £1 easily with black rock manipulating. They do not invest in companies for div or returns, shorting makes easy quick money for them.
Black rock manipulating the price lower, buty, hedge and loan out to shorters. Mcro board is hopeless in managing sp and turning round the business strategy is poorly executed. Nothing promising. This many go down below £2 if no div or good trading updates. The road it takes looks like Capita, sp dessimated. The saving grace now is the huge debts not an issue due to refinancing.
Hope for some div reinstate or takeover to get out unscath from this stock.
Colonel sound pessimistic lately. This is time to sit tight, watch and bite size buy opportunity. Agree that more **** to come.
As for pdl, Duffy will look for investors like lonmin saga, at least two large investors to buy off some debts, may likely be Chinese buy for Chinese market.
True indeed, good views from all be it positive or negative. This will now take much longer to turn if boat do not capsize. Duffy have no alternative but start to focus on debt restructuring as his 2020 project ain't working.
In the time being; D4E difficult to happen for PDL. Firstly; PDL is more than a quarter own by BEE (Black Empowerment). They want the interest payments which they nicely received yoy. Currently; Duffy still able to pay all the interest (but not the debt) and still have some cashflow (exclude the bank overdraft). In short; nose still above water. With this virus; cash flow may reduce. His project 2022 is walking on 1000ft high wire walk filled with risks. And we see this easily with the diamond prices forecast and virus. If pdl run our of cash; he be forced to sell assets way earlier than occur. I still think he will cooockup with his high wire act in 2020&2021. The assets are near 970mln; debt around 600mln (round up); thus for BEE; at worst sell some assets or help/allow a takeover. BEE still can renegotiate ownership; which in Africa has priority for black empowerment.
Most probable scenario; before run out of cash; sell one of the assets. Debts will be restructure with cheaper bond stretch out; that if Duffy (a finance guy) should already be looking to restructure debts.He has been elusive on debt restricting and diverting all related questions to focus on his risky project 2022. He is not an "on the ground operational guy".
Hope Duffy do not run out of cash; sit tight and hope for the sp to regain some positive ground mid to year end. Right now; decimated with virus. Way oversold.
If Duffy do not restructure the debts and run out of cash; then he is really useless and D4E will occur or worst administration (doubt so. someone will buy at least Culinan). Give him 2020 and 2021 to prove his high wire walk works.
Indeed, but even at such low sp, it tells alot about the CEO and mgr. This is looking like a lonmin, run out of cash, sell assets and get bought out. Hopefully Duffy looking to sell assets. His 2022 project is down the gutters with virus.
Manage to hear Duffy presentation. The positive is that under such bad diamond price env, still make free cash to pay for bonds interest and BEE payments. Depending on flawless production rate(well done for now) until 2022 and market diamond price quick recovery looks like a dangerous fly by wire. Production can go wrong anytime in Africa.
In Q&A, Duffy remains elusive on 650 mln bond maturity. He being a finance guy better seek effective ways to restructure this bond to avoid all free cash serving coupon interests. PDL at this rate still can service interests, but for how long? The company will not fold as 26% own by BEE (black empowerment), similar to lonmin. Tip toe at cliff hanger, someone will step in. D4e may be an issue post may 2022 if debts stubbornly high. But this d4e can be tough to materialise since 26% pdl is held by BEE.
If pdl deliver the 100 mln cash flow by 2022 plus some big diamonds found (finger X, a few please soon), may bring down debts below 500 mln, chances of restructuring loan may be promisingly good. In the meantime hope pdl do not screw up in production and run short in cash. Give Duffy another 12 to 18 months, until end 2021, and if debts still not below 500 Mln, must bail out/sell all shares before then. Small ship with small rudder fighting high waves. Pdl in situation very similar to lonmin, so tight in cash, unable to fold due to BEE , must sell assets and eventual swallowed by someone to accommodate the debts overhang. May be bought out cheap in a year or two by predators sees diamond market price recovering.
Just a quick cut and paste
a note, analysts at house broker Peel Hunt said the lower cash flow target was still in line with their base case estimates and retained their ‘buy’ rating and 18p price target on the Petra.
The analysts said they thought the market was placing “little value on the benefits of Project 2022”, Petra’s strategy to increase its net free cash flow to around US$200mln over the next three years to cut its debt pile, and that any sell-off in reaction to the revised cashflow target should be seen as a “buying opportunity”.
Hmmm....sales pitch?
At present, his project22 just puts pdl on life support cashflow. I think soon, inevitable he be cornered on option but to sell one of the mines to service debts. That would help sp. When is this going back to Duffy share price 21p...ok, not that greedy when back over 11.5p .vest interest.
Will hear his playback q&A tonight. Doubt he is confident or more excuses on pjt 22.