Member Info for LONGWAIT

'Any word of re-entering 7z instead of drilling a new 'Lancaster 8', and I'll be 90% out of here.'

Your view, presumably, Double, is that HUR may as well spend some of its cash pile on drilling, in order to maintain or increase production.

They could then pay off the bond holders or maybe get the SP up to the level where they could convert the bonds.

They simply have to find ways of extracting more oil.

There is no need to panic - unless we start getting 'backstops' for the receipt of the transfer.
What I would like to know is how Corona can have stopped SpotOn from transferring the money.
What is the connection between a delay in getting a consortium together and the transfer of the money?
It looks as though SpotOn are saying that they want to do the two things at the same time.
That isn't what was indicated by the timetable.
They were given six weeks to buy the additional shares and about six months to get the consortium together.
Are they saying that they expect to do both within a week?

The problem with the debt is that they need to be producing plenty of oil with a good oil price in order to be able to redeem the bonds OR a share price of $0.52 or higher in order to be able to convert the bonds.
If neither happens, what will they do?
Maybe they could negotiate an extension, but what if most bondholders say no?

I haven't been posting much lately, partly because of hospital visits.
I wouldn't like to say how much my speculation and investment in HUR have cost me financially, but they certainly have not helped my health, either.
My digestion is poor, partly perhaps on account of having to eat so much humble pie after defending the company from its critics.
Unfortunately, there is not much point now in trying to deny that HUR is not a stable producer.
If the problem is sorted out, the OGA accedes to HUR's request regarding LC, another well can be added to the producing wells, and the oil price continues to recover, then I wouldn't be surprised to see the SP make a new high.
I cannot, however, in all honesty say that I expect all of those things to happen.
I still ask myself why so many people have bought into the HUR story.
Why did I and others think it was a bargain at 40p in 2014?
Why did RB think it could be worth £17 billion, top up at 52p, and buy recently at 14.5p?
Why did Double and some others here buy more today, in spite of the terrible RNS?
Why are they buying more, when I have decided not to - in fact, I had already decided to wait until after the OGA's decision.
Why did I?
Because HUR shares are in the habit of collapsing even on slightly disappointing news, or even confirmation of old news.
Why are they buying now, when we don't know whether production at 20 kbopd can be sustained, let alone doubled, as intended? The answer I come up with is that people have bought and are still buying into the HUR story because of its vast potential.
Now, I know I may be accused of drawing a false parallel, but several years ago, PVR was nearly taken over twice, on account of the huge potential of Barryroe .
The share price still fell from about 800p to 1p.
Some people may object that when you take dilutions into account, the high was 'only' 80p, but that is of no consolation to someone who bought at 800p and held till 1p.
Now PVR are hoping finally to develop Barryroe, even though they have no income.
HUR have income, but everyone - including their one-and-only farminee - seems to be deserting them.
They really need some good news.

'When you look at the hurricane story we are in the early stages of proving up a massive amount of oil resources that will be worth many Billion dollars.'

You mean slightly more than 30p per share?

Processing and interpretation of the seismic data are complete, which confirm the structure mapped on 2D and suggest a contingent resource of up to 200 MMboe.

The recently completed reservoir simulation (static and dynamic) has modelled peak production rates at over 70,000 BOPD.

http://www.sosina.co.uk/?Licences:Ireland:Spanish_Point_and_Burren

It seems unbelievable that PVR have never developed either Barryroe or Spanish Point.

People are talking themselves into believing that oil shares are almost worthless.
It's only a short time ago that they were talking about negative oil prices being the new norm.
They're still talking about huge water cuts.
Do you think that in a few years' time, with HUR possibly producing 40 kbopd, having proved up more resources, and trading at more than 100p per share, they will stop talking about water cuts, the oil drying up, EPS being 'experimental,' HUR not being a stable producer, RT having to resign, or HUR going bust?
I don't think anything would stop them from continuing to spout their nonsense.
I read an article today, questioning whether the present oil price rally can last.
I hate to be pedantic, but if the present oil price rally lasted forever, then something would be badly wrong with the markets.
Prices fluctuate.
When they reached $147, the experts were talking of $00s; then when they fell to the 20s, they said they would never reach 100 again, but they hit 80; then when they went through the floor, they said they would never recover, but they are heading for 40.
My main concern now is whether the OGA will continue to obstruct HUR's plans.
If they don't, then there is no reason the company should not go from strength to strength.

Wrong, Wizard.
It's you whom the market does not believe.

HUR shares are 70 percent off their all-time low, touched more than two months ago.
UKOG shares are just above their all-time-low, touched two DAYS ago - or didn't you notice?

As for the volume of shares traded, you didn't take into account the fact that there are more than four times at many UKOG shares as HUR shares in issue.

A poster called Wizard125 on UKOG is predicting that HUR shares will 'definitely' be lower than UKOG shares following conversion of debt to shares because - so he reasons - the issuing of new shares will have to be at such a low price.

I retorted that the new shares would have to be issued at $0.52 - 40p @$1.30 - which is almost 180 times the current UKOG share price, and at a PREMIUM of 250 percent to the present HUR share price at recent exchange rates.

So far, there is no sign of his backing down.

You've made an elementary mistake, Wizard: you thought that HUR would have to issue shares at a discount, dragging the price down.

The reality is that they would have to be converted at $0.52 each, representing a PREMIUM of 250 percent to the present HUR share price at recent exchange rates.

You're wrong, Wizard, for two reasons: first, unlike UKOG, HUR is now cash-rich and would easily be able to repay its debt in two years' time if necessary.
Secondly, if the debt is converted into shares, it will add roughly 20 percent to the number of shares in issue.
That compares favourably with the kind of dilution that has been taking place at UKOG - or haven't you noticed?

The fact that you predict that HUR shares will be worth less than UKOG shares in two years' time - which would require HUR shares to fall by more than 98 percent or UKOG shares to rise by 5400 percent proves my point about losing touch with reality.

There is, however, a howler in your prediction: you predict that HUR shares will 'definitely' be worth less than UKOG AFTER conversion of HUR's debt to shares.
The condition for that conversion to take place is that HUR shares reach $0.52 (40p at an exchange rate of say £1.30).
In order for your prediction to come true, UKOG shares would have to be about 40p in two years' time.
Even Tymers might have difficulty going along with that.

I know you have an enduring interest in Spanish Point, Manyana, and it occurs to me that Alan Linn may be interested in it too, because he said he thought PVR should prioritise existing discoveries over exploration.
Presumably, SP comes under the first category, whereas Avalon comes under the second.
Anyway, we should be hearing before long which licences PVR intends to relinquish and one has to assume that if SP isn't relinquished, then PVR is going to try to do something with it.

I've held shares for many years in TUI and cannot remember any rights issue ever taking place.

The heading implies that it has a history of begging investors for cash.

By now, I'm used to seeing headings designed to knock investors' confidence - but ONLY following a share price collapse.

' ... the constant, never ending dilution is a worry, the lack of communication and the lack of specificity - such as forward guidance on production forecasts - is another concern. The bonus was a very bad sign IMHO - I can't see ANY reason why SS was paid extra. The BoD is silent and we never hear a peep from them, nor do they invest in the company.

I had hoped we'd get back to 2 -2.5 when I could exit having covered my costs - this now has to be a ten bagger to reach that limited target.

The incessant ramping is an extreme irritant to us LTH's - we don't want the company to fail - far from it - but telling lie after lie day after day is no way to achieve this.'

(Mirasol)

I can't think of anything to add to that.

Let's also not forget that RB of CA - who has a bad reputation here for allegedly not helping the share price - accumulated a substantial number of shares at about 14.5p.
Off the top of my head, it was about 24 million shares.
Having once topped up in the 50s, he obviously thought the shares were absurdly cheap at 14.5p, never imagining that they would halve again.
There has been no shortage of know-alls, pointing out that HUR was 'absurdly over-valued' in the 60s, 50s, 40s and 30s.
The interesting thing about such people is that they tend to appear after the price has collapsed.
Most were quiet when the SP was in the 60s, even though it must surely have been even more absurdly over-valued at that time, but now they talk of such times with unconcealed disgust, as though to say, 'who would pay such a high price for rubbish like this!'

Based on the detailed figures you gave, PS, I calculated an average of exactly 17p per share - before seeing your later post giving the same figure.
Had Utility's figures been correct, your average would be 24p.
I have to say that it's a bit much that when someone has the honesty to give details of their losses, they have to suffer the indignity of being called a liar or fantasist.
I think MS is realistic about the situation and really thinks SOU can be successful.
I wouldn't actually be surprised if the SP soars after almost everyone has given up.
Lady Luck dislikes being pursued and has a habit of appearing unexpectedly.
There does seem to be a tendency on AIM for share prices to collapse and then soar from very low levels.
I agree with you that action is what will count.

I suspect it's getting to the point where I am liable to be criticised for wasting time replying to someone who has nothing good to say about the company and insists that his last post really is his last.
'I was naive and got carried away with the hype and Trice could do no wrong.'
What exactly is Trice supposed to have done wrong?
I suggest it's ludicrous to say HUR is a bad investment because it is a 'marginally profitable producer.'
The oil price has slumped to such an extent that no producer can make a sizeable profit at the moment.
Is that Trice's fault?
'if this is your dream come true and what success looks like for you then I am happy for you'
That's the kind of sarcasm serious investors can do without.
No-one here is happy about losing money.
You look like a sophisticated version of TSD, putting down the company when it hasn't actually done much wrong and has largely been the victim of the bad sentiment towards the oil sector, the collapse in oil prices, and the stock market collapse.
And don't bother saying bye.

You think it's necessary to say bye twice?

You mean that it's all right for you to have your say, but you don't like the idea of someone else giving his opinion?

I'm not making any predictions about the share price, but I think your analysis is flawed.
First, I would suggest that it would be easier to get from the low of 7.15p to 71.5p than it would have been to get from 64.5p to 645p.
Secondly, you say, 'the dream of a 10-bagger is dead. We need to accept the story has changed from those halcyon days 3 or so years ago. We are now a minor producer making marginal profit.'
If you think that for HUR to have become a minor producer is not the stuff of which dreams are made, then I beg to differ.
I'm not sure what kind of dream you had in mind; was it that a kind major would offer 645p per share for the potential of HUR's prospects, without HUR having to produce oil first?
I would also suggest that your disillusionment has more to do with the share price collapse than with prospects - although as I have said, the situation with LC and the OGA is worrying.
Over on RRE, where the SP fell by 80 percent in just over two months, the posters aren't talking about a dream having ended.
Why should they?
Why should we?

Well, I don't know what to make of it, but I've just looked at his posting history and today, on another stock, he was extolling the virtues of patience and advising against paying too much attention to the day-to-day price changes.

I just wonder why he won't apply the same principle to HUR.