Member Info for LONGWAIT

I think if ever Double reads the speculation about his being RT in disguise, he will be hugely amused.
I don't think they are one and the same.
I cannot see RT leading a double life, playing poker and fretting about poker tournaments being cancelled due to Corona.
P.S. Double lives in France and I don't think he made that up.

No, but I do agree with you that the SP is mental.
I do think that the SP will get back to the 60s, a level it reached three times - in 2017, 2018 and 2019.
Once it makes a new record high, it could reach 100s, especially if there is a takeover approach.
There are always people like Mathematics on these boards, trying to dissuade people from investing in undervalued stocks by scaring them.
I could name another recovery play where resident derampers / spoilers stated categorically that the company would not be able to replace its CEO, who had just resigned, and that a pledged investment in the company would never be made.
A new CEO was found - and far better than his predecessor - and the investment was made.
The said derampers have never apologised or even acknowledged that they were wrong.
If Mathematics is not banned, when a big recovery takes place here, he will quietly disappear.

We've got three resident posters telling everyone else as well as each other that the company is finished.
I remember them saying categorically that PVR would never find another CEO, that no-one would ever farm into Barryroe, and that SpotOn would not honour its pledge to buy shares.
Now they are trying to convince us that SpotOn and all the institutional investors don't understand the regulations.
Maybe you're right, Delboi, and it's a case of not wanting a company whose shares they have sold finally to succeed.

56.35 km approximately.

The exact distance in km is 5 times the square root of 127 .

I have a degree in mathematics, but I couldn't remember the formula!
So, I calculated the answer from first principles, using the information from which the formula is derived.
I then found the formula and got the same result, which is five times the square root of 127.

Having read Mathematics' latest comments, it is clear that he does not take into account what a major would take into account when valuing a company like HUR or PMO.

According to his way of thinking, PMO had a negative valuation at the time Ophir Energy wanted to merge with it, and both PMO and HUR now have negative valuations.

That is nonsense.

Apparently, Mathematics has never heard of bids being made for companies that have debt.
Ophir Energy made two bid approaches to Premier Oil in 2014, in spite of the fact that PMO's debt at that time was greater than its market capitalisation.

'HUR recent rns and Bod changes with plans to increase production and tightening finance with already declared increased oil production capacity are all very positive...'

(Hasiba)

Yes, but not for the share price!
The SP reached 7.18p when production was 20,000 bopd.
So, if production returns to that level, the SP may not even increase.
I wrote a few months ago that if the target (stated some time ago by the BOD) of 40 kbopd is reached and oil prices return to previous levels of $50 plus, HUR could be making something like 15p per share per year.
After a few years, if the SP hasn't moved, any short position would be suicidal and the investment case would be overwhelming.
Something would inevitably happen to the share price.
I actually made this point months ago, when some posters were saying the share price would never recover because the HUR SP is fixed so that it can't ever take off again.
That is nonsense, but unlike some posters who have recently come onboard, I am not confident that the explosion in the share price I anticipate will take place soon.

I have no technical knowledge, which is why I always deferred to Double for an opinion on anything like this, but he too was puzzled by the OGA's position on the tie-back of Lincoln Crestal.
I was going to mention the delay granted by the OGA to the schedule for P&A of LC, and I have been wondering whether this means there is still a chance that the tie-back could go ahead after all, but Double doubted it.

'It's the rising Wc and interference issue, leading to lower current production that ha fuelled doubts...'

(Genghis)

Well, the SP had already collapsed to about 12p, having been 7.2p, BEFORE the interference was reported.

There had been something approaching hysteria about water cuts, encouraged by the Lemon Fool.
One veteran poster announced that he was so worried about water cuts that he had sold the lot - I can't remember at what price, but it must have been at least in the 20s and when production was 13,500 bopd.

HUR is now producing slightly less than that and the last reported water cut was eight percent.

Yet the SP is back down to 7.3p.

'Kerogen took 85 million shares at 32p in the 2017 placing.'

(Careful)

Now you see why RT was removed.
All LTHs are making a loss - Kerogen more than 75 per cent.

Kerogen thought HUR shares - which had been 67.5p - were good value at 32p.
During the recent collapse, we've had posters talking about the company as if it were trash - even when it was flowing 20,000 bopd.
Kerogen thought 32p was a good price, at a time when we didn't even know HUR would ever produce a drop of oil.
First Oil was about two years away.

Richard Bernstein, whose Crystal Amber fund is another large investor, topped up at 52p, declaring that the shares were cheap.
He had talked of HUR one day being worth £17 billion and bought 24 million more shares at about 14.5p a few months ago.

Kerogen and CA want to make a profit on their investment, and that means the company is not going to be sold at anything less than many multiples of its present market value.

In the meantime, it can be expected to find ways to increase production back to 20,000 bopd and then higher.

IMO, the current share price is completely mad, but I have no idea when the madness will end.

'Here is an interesting post from advfn regarding shortfall on the bond at July 2021.'

*South Sea Breeze)

If you are assuming that the bond matures in July 2021, then you are mistaken; it matures in July 2022.

One of the strange things about this company is that everything about it is treated in a negative way and that, I suggest, is the true underlying explanation for its present share price.

Many companies have debt, without their shareholders asking whether they will be able to pay it back.
Debt can be restructured.
People here used to warn of dilution (because the share price used to be much higher) in the event of conversion of the bonds; now that conversion seems unlikely, they talk of the company being worthless instead.

Similarly with the production figures: most companies would be congratulated on producing an average of 15,500 bopd until the shut-in, followed by 10,300 and 12,000 from a single well, but with HUR it is presented as the beginning of the end.

We used to get posts questioning whether production would last six months.
It's now nearly 13, but the depression grows.

There was considerably more uncertainty about production when the price was in the 60s, but that was before the media targeted the company and before people started talking about uncertainties.

The share price was 64.5p when there were questions as to whether HUR would produce any oil at all.
Yet we were where we were.
People were asking whether HUR would be able to produce continuously for six months.
It is now approaching 13 months, yet the share price is below 7.5p.

Sorry, Genghis, but you haven't explained why we are where we all at all.

I agree, CS, that Genghis appears to have allowed the general depression surrounding HUR to get to him.
I haven't pinned down the initial total cost or total cost when production was last at around this level, but it cannot have been much above $26 and certainly nowhere near $40.

Then he adds, 'and there are questions over the future production rates. That's why we are where we are.'

There are always questions, as no-one can predict the future.
Genghis has questioned whether production can be got back up to 15,000 bopd.
Maybe it will.
Maybe it will reach16 kbopd or 18 kbopd.
Maybe the other well will be brought back into production.
Maybe the OGA will allow LC to be tied back after all.
Maybe they won't.

'That's why we are where we are.'

Sorry, Genghis, but that's not true.
The share price was 64.5p immediately before First Oil.
How do you explain that?

I just checked the history of the Lancaster field at

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lancaster_oilfield

'Production costs for 2020 are forecast to be $20 per barrel and are expected to fall to $17/bbl and perhaps as low as $15/bbl in 2021 as production ramps up.[4] '

Before you point out that those are not the total costs, I am aware of that, but it gives an earlier cost of just $3 more than the most recent figure given by the company, i.e. $20.

Initial production rate was 9,000 bopd, which is significantly less than the current 12,000 bopd.
Can you recall production costs ever approaching $40 per barrel, Genghis?
I can't.

Very, very strange.
Several posters have criticised me for supposed bickering, without any reference to the actual content of my posts.
Tymers implied that JOG shares have fallen; I pointed out that they have doubled recently.
Instead of acknowledging that I am right about that, posters say I'm bickering.
Tymers has been predicting big increases in the share price here for years; I gave instances in which he confidently predicted a rise in the price the following morning, but the price went down; another in which he predicted that the price would double in one or two weeks - instead, it went down.
Posters reacted by criticising me for pointing out facts.
Now, you are saying that the share price is more likely to go up than down.
The share price had just made a new record low.
The company is still issuing shares as a way of paying off its debts, because it lacks cash.
It recently had to raise cash for the same reason.
Many posters here have lost touch with reality.

I've just read your comment, ATS, as well as IJWT's most recent comment, and it is as if you are talking about two different companies.

I see now that today's rise was prompted by FinnCap's report.
I've also just noticed that EOG made a double bottom - on 26 March and 28 April.
I hadn't noticed that before.
I think the bottom I mentioned in my previous post must have been the earlier one.
Looks as though it has really finally bottomed.

I remember six weeks ago to the day, when the offer price was 0.75p, yet another all-time low.
It seemed almost incredible - down from a high of 37.48p and falling for more than nine years.
I knew that by averaging down, I could get my money back more quickly, but decided to average down elsewhere.
And now the offer price has doubled!
Why?

'We've had a string of "issues com(ing) to light"'

(Genghis)

I disagree, Genghis.
The only thing that has come to light, of which I am aware, is a problem with the two producing wells interfering with one another's performance.