Member Info for LONGWAIT

With a completely new market-facing team in Hurricane there is little doubt that a new look is going to be taken across the whole process. I get the impression from the company that as the company transitions from explorer to developer and producer it is a ‘logical time’ to change the guard. At this stage I am still convinced that there is still plenty to go for in Hurricane even though up until now things have proved to be somewhat more difficult that initially expected. Dr Trice should, despite inevitable frustration in the end be proved right with regard to the fractured basement potential in the Hurricane portfolio.

(Malcy)

Well, Tuxedo, Seeking Alpha may be right about J.P. Morgan's being over optimistic in believing that Brent crude could hit $190/barrel by 2025, but it makes one wonder about the 'experts' who predicted following the previous slump that oil prices would never reach $100 again.

It did reach $80 again and was $70 in January of this year.

I think you could be right about Kerogen, MCB, but a 30+p takeover price??

Of course, I agree that it would be more than 30p, but I think it would have to be much more.

Sorry, Rosie, but you have got the wrong end of the stick.
I referred to the person in charge as a 'girl,' which she undoubtedly was.
I suppose I lacked the presentation skills to refer to her as 'the person' or 'it.'
I think most people would realise that the point I was making has nothing to do with gender - it was about the undue value attached to presentation skills, which she seemed to have in abundance.
If I had been put in charge, I would much more mundanely have arrived at the correct answer in the allotted time.

Sorry to see you go, Double.
I don't think you're replaceable.
Reading of your departure was probably a bigger shock to me than reading of RT's departure, although you had intimated that you would sell in certain circumstances.
I too am unhappy about RT's going, but I think the potential is still there.
I think he is a victim of today's world, in which presentation skills are overvalued.
I'm reminded of a psychology experiment in which I participated, in which everyone had a piece of information, the totality of which was required to solve a mathematical problem.
A girl from our group was put in charge and she had to assemble all the information and thereby solve the problem.
I could see the solution, but was prevented by the rules from doing anything.
She acted throughout as if she were totally competent and in control of everything, but she couldn't solve the problem because her mathematical skills were lacking.
Hope nothing like that happens with HUR.

I wonder whether all the posters who said the company was finished, or who predicted a return to 10p, will finally admit they were wrong.

I think he is just assuming that the new deal will follow the precedent set by APEC.
PS and I said before SpotOn appeared on the scene that we expected less than 40 percent next time, because PVR is in a weaker position now, but we will just have to wait and see.
He (AIM Bagger) also cites an old analysis by Mirabaud, with mouth-watering figures.
Unfortunately, their analysis had high hopes for Newgrange, which has certainly been relinquished, as well as South Dunquin, which appears to have been relinquished.
It will be interesting to see what happens to the share price in the event that a deal is sealed.
It seems to be rising gently in anticipation of an announcement that terms have been agreed.

"if the share price moves just a little i can walk away with the biggest smiles and a lot of money"

That reminds me of a poster called Tymers on the UKOG BB.
He congratulated himself the other day on having bought HUR for 6p and sold for 8p, because - so he claims - it is going to go back down to 6p.

He also says that he would not be surprised if UKOG shares were 5p in a year's time - with a current bid price of 0.20p, that's a rise of 2,400 percent in 12 months.

Comments are invited.

Well, DE, the MS NAV estimate is obviously out of date - it assumes Brent is $60.
It isn't, however, as out of date as it was a few weeks ago, when my friend Genghis asked whether Brent could go negative.
The estimate also pre-dates the 'interference' problem.

The point is that if HUR sorts out its production problems and gets it back up to 18 kbopd, and Brent recovers to $60, and either LC finally goes ahead or something else is developed in its place, then MS will have no reason to downgrade its estimate.

If that were to happen, buying at 9p will look like having been a very good decision.

'You forget that article is rather old.'

(DireEmblem)

That's not true, but I'm not going to call you a dummy.

I gave the date of the article above my quote from it.

It was in response to an estimate made in the same month, cited by Compass.

'Hur have huge issues at the moment, FB model looks dodgy, problems with well positions / also water cut, it’s been a disaster. Spirit have been burnt badly. It’s a car crash it won’t happen

(Craig8)

Total nonsense!

04 Dec, 2019 16:04

Under the assumption of a price of Brent crude oil of $60.0, Morgan Stanley estimated a net asset value for Hurricane of between 54.0-214.0p, depending on the valuation for the contingent resource base in place at Lancaster and Lincoln.

https://www.sharecast.com/news/broker-recommendations/morgan-stanley-labels-hurricane-energy-share-price-drop-overdone--7147057.html

'.........are you only 35, PC01? You looked a lot older than that at the CMD in London last Oct.'

AIM investment speeds up the aging process, DU.

Just in case anyone has misunderstood what Tymers has just written,
he is talking about the possibility of UKOG shares rising 2,400 percent in 12 months.
Can anyone here name another company about whose shares posters have been talking about such a huge rise in the course of one year?
I cannot.

'buy expecting at least 1p if not more as this week has shown and same week on week ukog united'

(Tymers today)

Incredible post.
Incredibly incredible post of the year.
Same ramping week after week.
This week and week after week have shown at best a gently sliding share price forming a bottom.
Chartists might point out that according to Google, UKOG is at a seven-year-low and, therefore, that the charts show year after year a declining share price.
They might also point out that it is almost impossible to find another AIM oil company whose shares have not at least bounced off the bottom, with many having increased by hundreds of a percent.
Now, I'm not saying that UKOG isn't cheap; the truth is that we don't know, because all we know is 300 bopd and if that's all there is then you can't expect the shares to rally.
We're still waiting for the company to announce big increases in production, as claimed by Tymers and his colleagues, but it just hasn't come.
Take another look at Tymers' remark, quoted above.
Can you make any sense of it?
It's like a market stall trader calling, 'Today's the day!'
What do you think 'this week has shown' and what do you think has been the 'same week on week'?

I agree, Daltry, and that is why I said some time ago that I didn't think a share buy-back - even if shareholders were to authorise it - would be a good idea.

If production rates and Brent stay reasonably high, then cash is going to be accumulated to the point where the current share price would be at a steep discount to cash per share.

That happened recently with RRE, which was trading at 422p against cash of 2089p.
The shares have since recovered to 1290p.

'There is something dreadfully and stupidly WRONG with HUR's share price being down below ten pence right now. In fact, there's something stupidly wrong for it to be below about 40p.'

(Double, 3 June 01:47)

If the SP is obviously undervalued at below 40p, a price in the 60s cannot be grossly-overvalued.

Last post before going to bed:

I don't know at what price you started buying, Double, but I think they were floated at 43p and I bought my first lot a few months later at just above 40p.

I'm familiar with the argument about dilution, e.g. 'if the number of shares in issue doubles, then 40p before is equivalent to 20p after,' but the fact is that anyone buying at flotation and holding long term doesn't have his share certificate altered to reflect that. If he bought a 0.1p share, it stays that way unless the company rearranges its share capital.

As I've said before, if share prices are really expected to fall in order to reflect the dilution, why would anyone ever invest in a growth company (which inevitably issues shares in order to grow)?

So, my question is: what is toppy about a share whose flotation price was 43p reaching the 60s?

Of course you're right, Double, about past price movements, but I don't think the fact that people regret not having sold at 30, 50 or 60p, will prevent the price from recovering the whole way, even if some sell on the way back up.

Unless, of course, markets 'will never be the same again.'

I think your estimate is way out, FB, and that you're allowing recent share price movements to override any reasonable valuation.

I honestly don't know why majors who are not prepared even to farm into Lincoln would be prepared to buy it, along with the other assets, outright.

If, in a year's time, production is back up to 18 kbopd and Brent is back to $50 +, your 20p per share estimate is going to look even more ridiculous.

I am certain that the BOD and major shareholders would turn down such an offer as derisory and that it is so obviously derisory that it wouldn't be made in the first place.