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I didn't say anything is the market's fault!

I am saying that the market is valuing TE5 at about a third of its value and the rest of Tendrara at zero.

Now, I don't know what any major's likely negotiating position will be, but I don't think he is going to argue that since the market values the rest of Tendrara at zero, he will offer about 5 p per share and claim that would be generous.

Maybe it will happen, but it would be a pointless exercise because OGIF would have no incentive to accept such an offer and every reason then to find an alternative to selling.

I do believe someone with big pockets could take a stake if it continues to fall, but there is no point in a major making a derisory bid.

A major knows that even if SOU don't try to raise money to drill more, they could raise money to develop TE-5.

A derisory bid would simply ruin the chance of a sale of Tendrara.

Let's say it falls to 2 p.

If a major offered 26 p for TE-5 and zero for the rest of Tendrara, that would represent a premium of 1200 percent.

That gives you some idea of how wrong the market could be.

Take a look at JOG.

They found a minimum of 25 mmboe.

The market values that find at zero.

JOG is valued at less than its cash balance.

Do you really think the market is right?

If the market is right, then there can't be any gas in TE-5.

'The only explanation for the sp to be 8.2p is that there is no buyer and we're gonna have a big raise to keep exploring...'

You're crediting the market with powers of clairvoyance.

AIM reflects fears rather than hopes.

What's happening seems like a self-fulfilling and self-confirming prophecy: some disappointing news causes a fall in the share price; LTHs bail out; the price falls further; more and more people say the share price must fall further; it falls further; more LTHs throw in the towel, declaring that there is no hope for the company and all is lost.

While all this has been going on, the gas has remained in TE-5, awaiting production and sales.

The other commercial gas in Tendrara is crying out to be discovered.

The project can be moved forward only by people who believe in it and are still holding shares in it.

'If the "conservative" estimates for the LE (including TE-5) of 27 -> 50+p expressed on this board are correct - then WTF is the SP doing at <9p'

The only explanation is that the market shares the view of Oilman Jim and of many posters that TE-5 is a mirage, plans to produce and sell oil from it are fake, the seismic are all wrong, no gas will ever be produced from Tendrara, and the company is going into receivership.

Actually, I think I did the sceptic posters an injustice: many of them do not take such an extreme view as Jim, but think the company will be sold for 5 - 10 p per share, which would obviously be acceptable to OGIF.

The comment was certainly negative, Tapper.

He wrote: 'the eventual target price for SOU remains zero.'

In other words, he has long taken the view that SOU is going into receivership.

He doesn't mention TE-5.

I don't want to shock you, Anovas, but they don't teach grammar in English schools any more and the teachers probably don't know the meaning of the word.

When I was 11 years old, our teacher devoted an entire lesson to illustrating the distinction between direct and indirect speech.

When I read the newspapers, and even articles by professors, it is evident that almost no-one now is aware of the distinction.

'people can talk all they like about value of TE-5 but you need a buyer to buy'

You are right, of course, but why is it that on AIM - and especially with SOU - posters talk as though something must go wrong?

Some posters are actually implying that the gas in TE-5 doesn't exist, or that it's worthless, and now you are questioning whether a buyer can be found.

Rothschild are marketing the whole of Tendrara, not just TE-5.

Of course, there is no guarantee that a reasonable offer will be received, but how often does an area twice the size of Qatar, in which commercial gas has been found, get offered for sale?

I agree with you, Ajax, that the share price is ridiculous.

The problem is that it could become more ridiculous.

No chance of an Armageddon there?

' the possible armeggedon that might happen here

You mean TE-5 could turn out to be worthless?

Joe Punter's view of a company's prospects is that of a manic depressive.

Maybe Rothschild will market anything, even on behalf of dishonest secondhand car dealers, but I doubt it.

I'm reading posts along the lines of, 'There isn't commercial gas in Tendrara, the seismic data are worthless, Schlumberger didn't know what they were doing, the TE-5 data isn't credible, the company is going bust.'

The implication is that Rothschild are trying to market something they know to be almost worthless.

'My take on what is happening is there is now a lack of market trust in that (sic) what we have been told by the Company regarding the Horst '

At the risk of repeating myself, TE-5 was independently valued at 27 p per share.

That isn't mere company hype.

'that now suggests the seismic and its subsequent analysis is effectively 'worthless'.'

That in turn seems to suggest that TE-5 holds the only commercial gas in Tendrara.

How lucky to find the only well holding gas in an area twice the size of Qatar!

Or, it's rather like drilling in Wales and happening upon the only place that holds gas.

I know that the reliability of the seismic data is being questioned, but if it's worthless, why were Schlumberger impressed by it (or were they just playing along?) and why was TE-10 found to contain gas?

Is it reasonable to conclude that outside of TE-5, Tendrara has plenty of places like TE-10 with non-commercial gas, but none with commercial gas?

'we only need one reasonable sized discovery...'

That was the company's original idea, but with the increasing despair of shareholders that accompanied every failed drill, it decided to try and hand over to someone else.

Even that decision has failed to lift the share price.

Instead, it has slumped further, and posters are talking as though the company is finished.

Whatever course of action the management had decided on, they would have been damned.

I've just realized: we won't be seeing any more posts along the lines of 'you can't justify a market capitalisation of a billion pounds when the company doesn't even have any income.'

I think it's just AIM.

Over on HUR, we all took up our rights at 32 p, which seemed a bargain, but watched in disbelief as the price fell to 24 p.

Previously, it had risen from 8.85 p to 67.5 p.