Member Info for longtimeinvestor

Jj

'' You may feel certain about your 13% return but it is not a certainty''

What part is uncertain from a 2023 dividend of 2.76p and the affordability of at least another £2 Billion share buyback?

''At present you are sticking with a low total return''

The current 'low' total return amounts to about 13% at the current price - my own personal total return is about 27% - i will stick with that.

and the forward looking market does not agree with your feeling.

''Global markets, dominated by the US, are not at low valuations by any measure. ''

Who mentioned US or other markets?

''The consensus expectation of financial analysts is a low return decade

. Within this environment it is unlikely for UK shares in general to produce double digit returns.''

I repeat, Lloyds is already making double digit returns.

You can be content with whatever return cash gives you,

''The MM fund rate of return will drop off at some point but this is unlikely to coincide with stock markets suddenly jumping''

The market is forward looking

'' that money will probably head to longer dated fixed income to lock in the higher rates.''

as I said forward looking - I made a fund investment earlier in the year involving corporate bonds - forward looking at gilt/bond/base rates has meant that the capital value on top of the very high cash returns has increased by about 9% since then

Jj

Fakey has been waiting for a 34.5p Lloyds share price for about a year now - maybe you could form a Queue behind him and a few other doomsters.

JJ

''In the short term however, they provide certainty, optionality and currently a high return.''

In the short term I am certain that lloyds would be returning about 13% to shareholders over the next 12 months at the current price.

'' As soon as the high return drops, that would be the time to switch into either stocks and/or bonds.''

The markets are forward looking - when cash returns start to fall, the market would already have made that forecast, and would have made appropriate revaluations on appropriate shares.

'' If there is a market pullback or crash in the meantime, money can be switched into stocks same day.''

The market is already at low valuations - so your investment strategy is the hope of a severe recession/depression.

I will stick with double digit returns from lloyds, with most likely capital appreciation on top from these already depressed valuation levels over the coming years.

Jj

You cannot get a guaranteed 5.5% yearly cash return forever, whereas it would take a catastrophic situation for Lloyds not to be able to make about an average 6.5% dividend return based on the current price forever more.

Btw a catastrophic situation would most likely put cash returns back to near zero.

Jj

''Lloyds why would anyone risk buying a bank for a non-guaranteed 6.5% divi when they can get a risk free 5.5% at the moment in money market funds?''

At the current price Lloyds are able to afford total yearly returns to shareholders of about 13% - the forward return could be increased further if the BOD decide to increase the yearly buyback investment amount.

Cb2

''So surely if you are willing to offer current shareholder 50p you must be valuing the business at £336m. which one is it?''

the current market price per share will reflect the fact that the market is 99.9999% certain that a further 500 million shares will be issued, so yes at 50p the expectation would be a market cap of £336 million, but of course the share price is subject to change on a daily basis.

I sent Charlie the following email on 26th June

''Surely there must be a case for a further amount to be put into the programme at the half year results stage, and to still be completed by the year end?.

It is looking like the current funding will be spent before September. Purchasing at the current crazy low levels would be of great benefit to long term shareholders.''

LS

''abusing there position again with another buyback program to hit bonus targets by boosting short term EPS''

sick of seeing such a comment over and over and over and over again from people thinking that bonuses are simply based on eps increases.

Buybacks for cancellation are good for serious long term investors, especially if conducted at well below NAV.

Without buybacks there would currently have been 75,920,580,738

shares in issue

High?

double digits would be high - it looks to me as if recent rises have simply got us nearer to pre financial crash levels - not high

I6

you will not be offered shares to purchase at 30p unless the market price retreats to that price.

''if they are going to make 3 BILLION from loan sales.''

that would simply be converting risk weighted assets held in mortgages to cash. That is not new capital/assets

Rich

''will my value drop when you share issue at 30p. Thanks''

when the deal/s are approved, as is the case everyday, the market will determine the market cap/share price. The market is factoring in approval of the deal to issue 500 million new shares.

So basically the share price in the future could be 30p, £1, or any other price that the market determines .

Market currently has it at about 51p, knowing that the deal/s are 99.9999% certain to be approved

Glow

''Heavy dilution on the way for existing shareholders''

dilution of percentage ownership -

the market is already factoring in a further 500 million shares being issued with shareholder approval ,with the current market price per share

D69

''And this will be down due to dilution''

the market is already factoring in a further 500 million shares being issued with shareholder approval

Which needs shareholder approval

Wip

''if all current equity shareholders take up their rights at whatever ''

there is no rights issue - it was a £150 million placing

So a further 500 million shares in issue making a total of 672,676,547 shares in issue?

At 50p that would give a market cap of about £336 million.

The capital position would have improved by £325 million. Some bondholders getting a haircut and a sale of some mortgage assets on the cards.

I would have thought the total of this outcome would have resulted in a positive price per share later today?, but of course the market will decide as usual, taking further out prospects into account.

People selling on a little spike?

I last bought a couple of months ago at about 380p - no chance of selling that tranche at the current price, after having made a sale at about 456p less than a year ago

For a little over 27p

Sturgeon jumped off a sinking ship