Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Welcome to the Flock Latics, after all you took up your warrants to support the company you want to fail, you post on here incessantly to warn share holders of the ills of investing in this share, but I cannot for the life of me comprehend why.
Let’s face it, anyone buying into RKH now might just hit the jackpot in the next 12months with news of rig/FPSO getting booked; partner coming on board; financing getting sorted; FID; OM ruling in our favor. Yes I get it that none of the above might never happen and a year from now we could be looking at further dilution, but isn’t that part of the risk reward? If everything was priced accurately, there would be no rising or falling of shares.
I have bought some dog shares in my day, got caught up in the hype of Jam tomorrow, but I’m big enough to admit my mistake and when I’ve been burned badly, and have had no confidence in the board I have sold, I’ve taken the hit on the chin and walked away. Lived to fight another day. I don’t buy this bull that you can’t sell because it all might turn around tomorrow or I’m in too deep. You can always sell and move on, take the hit and never look back. It would do your mental health the world of good.
LTT
You’re not wrong Oscar, a couple of days ago Navitas hit a 52 week high. Once Shendoah comes online they really will be a cash cow. They just need the last two wells to get drilled without issues or delays.
I wonder if Beacon Offshore would come onboard and take a stake in Sea Lion. They obviously have a good working relationship with Navitas and they have a good backer with Blackstone Group. Blackstone might even take a stake through one of its group companies as it has done with Shenandoah.
Just a thought, sometimes it’s better the devil you know!
On the matter of anyone taking up there warrants early or late, the company is hardly running out of cash, so what does it matter when the warrants are excercised as long as they are. Why not earn 4+ percent on your cash up until the wire if you plan on keeping the warrants longer term, they are not going anywhere until the last date for applying for them, which if your with Barclays is the 27th December.
LTT
Hi Oscar, so what your sayings is if they stick to a timeline of FID in 2024, then we can expect , long lead time items acquisition; drilling contract signed off; FPSO signed of; maybe a partner coming onboard and then debt and equity raise all prior to FID.
So things could start happening thick and fast in 2024. Along with the OM final hearing all I can say is roll on 2024, it might just finally be the year of the rock!
Fingers crossed.
LTT
It will be interesting to see home many warrants have been issued this month, no doubt there will be an RNS on the 30th Nov or 1st December. I’m hoping for in the region of 2m- 5m with the remainder taken up in December with an RNS early Jan 2024.
I wonder what will happen to any leftover warrants, will they just be voided or can some institution hover them up once they have expired?
LTT
Unfortunately RKH cannot encourage or promote the take up of warrants to share holders, their lawyers told them it is a big no, no! Apparently it is financial advice and that is not allowed. Even so, anyone who took up the warrants offer would be crazy not to cash them in , as even now it’s almost a 20% return just buying and selling them, a win, win.
Anyway, many thanks again Mogger and Headder for the link and translation, it’s a positive to have Navitas fine tuning the development AND saying their timeline is still on track. I’d like to think the new hires in the FIG will be on with approvals, which is why they were no doubt hired, to not hold things up. Also imagine the longest lead item will be the FPSO, so once that is confirmed, things should start to fall into place.
If they are still planning oil by the end of 2026 with 18months of drilling before, a rig will have to be mobilized by 1st Q 2025 to hit that schedule. Exciting times are ahead.
Good luck all
LTT
Oscar,
Are you implying that FID would not happen till the end of 2024 and therefore first oil will be end of 2028? That would be a 2 year delay to Gideon’s original plans .
I wonder if they will try and get a mid cap player in as the 3rd party, give them 30 precent, but only if they have cash to fund things until Shenandoah comes online, then Navitas will have plenty of cash to fund theirs and RKH’s share.
Regards LTT
Here, here, and apparently it commands a premium to Brent, so even as we head down to $80 per barrel, there is still plenty of profit in Sea Lion’s oil for everyone.
LTT
Godders, RKH are not in the driving seat, they have not set a deadline, Navitas have. Why don’t you troll the Navitas forums if there are any and air your grievances there?
Also why do you always talk like you want them to fail? Is seems very strange to me that you would invest in a share you continuously knock down. Saying it’s a “Win, Win” if they fail or get to first oil doesn’t make sense at all!
Suppose it takes all sorts. The positives for me are that Ian Ramsey has hired a good team around him; they have just visited the Falklands; the FIG are hiring again and we are almost 2 months away from the OM final hearing AND you have taken up your warrants, you have helped the board that you have little or no faith in, to continue on for another year before needing to cash in the OM award/get paid out/fund raise.
So on behalf of the board and myself, thank you for your support of the company you continuously berate.
LTT
Hi Lactics,
I’m not sure about an RNS coming if Sam takes up his warrants, but then again as his holding will increase it seems likely there should be an RNS, particularly if he sells stock to take up his warrants as many are doing.
If Sam is going to buy his warrants with cash then as Mogger stated, if you don’t think the shares will go lower, why use hard earned cash that could be earning 4% or 5%. The warrants are available until the 31st Dec 2023 so why not leave it to the last possible moment? It makes sound business sense if you as me.
Have a good weekend all.
LTT
Godders, why does any share go up and down? It will be down until the markets price is otherwise, no amount of moaning, berating the board, Navitas, complaining about the weather will change that. Once FID is announced or postponed, or we win or loose the OM award; the FPSO is booked or Finance is secured, then the share price will react accordingly, but not until then, for now we are in limbo. Nobody is selling in case they miss out, nobody is buying; they are keeping their powder dry until there is a definite move one way or another. When it comes it will be swift IMHO, and we will get re-rated in blink either up or down, but that is why many people hold on to this stock, it's an all or nothing play, although more recently underpinned by 250m+ OM award sitting in the wings.
So I would politely suggest you just sell up and be done with it, wasting your time on here is not good for your health or sanity. Why not leave us to it, smug in the knowledge that you walked away, left the sinking ship that you believe is heading down to nestle next to the Titanic! You are not going to change anyone mind about holding, selling or buying, you are wasting your breath.
I wish you well, and hope you can find some other investments to put your hard earned into.
Kind regards
LTT
Decidedleaverage,
Why have you replied for Godders again, I thought it was against LSE’s regulations to have more than one account?
Regards LTT
Latics,
I think that RNS is referring to someone joining the company "as a part of that individual's overall remuneration package", I don't think a person who is not employed by Rockhopper would get a remuneration package.
Anyway I feel Paul Mayland fits the bill as someone to oversee the Sea Lion development for the Navitas / Rockhopper joint venture. He has experience of five FID's from his Cairn days, including three FPSO projects, one platform and one subsea tieback.(at least that's what is says in the RNS).
So maybe on this occasion the managements decision to get someone in for OM and someone in to take us to FID makes a lot of sense, would you not agree?
Regards LTT
LaticsRule, can you give me some example of when a company has issued shares to employees of another separate company to back up your claim, as it is quite disturbing to think RKH could give out shares willy nilly. Of course if they were non-execs coming into company I can understand the reason to give share options and the like to incentivise them, but to employees of another company who is partnering us!
Regards LTT
Why would RKH give shares to Navitas employees to keep them, it doesn’t make sense. Navitas should be taking care of its employees if it wants to get to FID and beyond, not RKH.
LTT
You’d think so Leeds, but then again, why bother when you are given share options and probably a hefty wad for just joining the company!
But let’s be honest, we would all take what is offered if we were in the same situation and I don’t mind if they can get this over the FID line and get the OM cash in.
As we edge closer to the 10th of January (think it’s around the 10th) for the final hearing on the annulment, then the die is cast. Can’t see them going back on their unanimous decision. Hopefully we won’t have to wait 6 to 9 months for them to tell us the annulment has been thrown out!
Then it should be onwards and upwards with FID, FPSO, Funding news coming thick and fast as 2024 leaves them with 3 years (to end of 2026) if Navitas really do plan for first oil in 2026! They will really have to motor, but then I believe they have been motoring behind the scenes, why else would they have been down in the Falklands again?
LTT
Hi Header,
Found this below about the waxy oil, hard to believe that all the excitement happened over 13 years ago!!!
Embargoed: 0700hrs, 2 July 2010
Rockhopper Exploration plc
("Rockhopper" or the "Company")
Sea Lion Exploration Well Ð 14/10-2
Oil Discovery Ð Results of Sample Analysis
Rockhopper Exploration, the North Falkland Basin oil and gas exploration company, is pleased to provide results following analysis of wireline MDT samples obtained from the recent Sea Lion 14/10-2 oil discovery well in the North Falkland Basin.
Samples analysed under reservoir conditions in a specialist laboratory are confirmed as medium grade crude with the following characteristics:
á API confirmed as 26.4 - 29.2 degrees
á Low Viscosity of 6.5 - 8.5 centipoises at reservoir pressure
á Gas Oil Ratio of 261 - 272 standard cubic feet per stock tank barrel
á A typical Wax Content of 18.4% - 20.8% wt*
á Formation Value Factor (FVF) of 1.16
á Low sulphur of around 0.2% weight
Sam Moody, Managing Director, commented:
"These positive results, when combined with our knowledge of reservoir quality from logging data, give us further comfort that a flow test of the Sea Lion well will confirm a mobile crude oil.
The wax content is typical for a lacustrine sourced crude oil and significantly lower than many other producing oilfields worldwide. Furthermore the viscosity, gas oil ratio, FVF and sulphur are all better than we anticipated."
Hi Ralph,
that was actually said at the AGM, Sam said if they needed substantial cash to go after the award, once the annulment is hopefully ruled in our favour, then one option could be to put it to share holders, we dilute raising XX millions to go after payment, by that time possibly €275m+ OR we sell part or all of the award to put cash in the bank without dilution.
Suppose it depends we’re the share price is at when we need the cash, personally I wouldn’t be happy to dilute by (just an example, Sam didn’t quote any numbers) say 20%, to chase after €275m that could be years after first oil before it comes in, I’d rather sell the award for 50p in the £1 and have no dilution to first oil and be able to stump up our share not covered by the loans.
Regards LTT
Sorry Blue, meant the pipes that carry the oil to the FPSO.
My memory is fuzzy but sure I read somewhere about steam heated hulls on the transportation tankers, but then it could also have been a dream!?!?!?
LTT
Hi Header, it will be taken in to account in the plan to get to FID. I read somewhere that they needed heated pipes to stop the wax solidifying, but it sells at a premium to Brent because of that, so maybe it increases lift costs a little but it’s offset by the premium.
Regards LTT
You said it yourself, it’s not priced in, the market sees it as not going to happen, so when it goes, they will not be ready for it, although more than likely they will get a sniff long before we do and the share price will start on a upwards trend.
LTT