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Thank you DEM and Lactis, interesting reading indeed, I particularly like this bit ;
“More recently, three wells were drilled in the NFB, leading to further discoveries in the early post-rift, such as the Zebedee and Isobel Deep Fans in 2015. These discoveries not only extended the spatial and stratigraphic extent of the petroleum system, they highlighted the further potential for future significant discoveries in the North Falkland Basin.“
I think 20 years of drilling could be an understatement!
LTT
Pages, I cannot see Borders financing Darwin themselves and keeping 100% if afraid. I hold some Borders and live in hope that a rising tide lifts all boats, it may even, percentage wise be a better return than RKH in the short term. Let’s face it physiologically Borders tripling to 9p seems easy compared to RKH making it to 40p.
However unless Borders has something more going on, they will drift back down. A more likely scenario is Navitas and RKH and partner take out Borders for shares and cash. Give them some skin in the games as a RKH shareholder benefiting from SL in the relatively short term and once the cash is flowing in, get a rig down to Darwin and RKH lookalike prospects near by.
Don’t get me wrong, I would LOVE to be totally blindsided by a self funded development on Darwin where Borders keep 100% are a farmin partner comes and pays $200m to Borders for 50% and a free carry to first oil. But I’m afraid those days are long gone IMHO.
LTT
Thanks Mogger, again Navitas have tied their colours to the mast, they have listed what they have done, are currently doing and what they plan to do. If they were going to knock back the timeline to first oil, that is the place they would have done it, but no, they have presented it in their annual report. They have been beavering away in the background getting on with the job, NOT doing a PMO who talked the talk, but couldn't walk the walk.
Surely even Marvin (Godders/Deciced) can see that things are moving and Mr Market has been blindsided. Maybe they are waiting for some other sign!
LTT
I was thinking similar, it would be sensible keeping it all in the family so to speak. H&W supplying the new dock all but, so fabricating some subsea kit and sending it down with the bits and pieces for the dock and have people on the ground already makes a lot os sense, why have a different company there doing something else?
Its say's,
"is pleased to announce that it has signed a five-year Master Services Agreement for the fabrication of large structures with a global oil services company supplying subsea infrastructure across the major hydrocarbon basins the globe."
Suppose they couldn't say for a new basin as it would be a giveaway, maybe i'm adding 2+2 and getting 5, but it does seem there are lots of interesting bits and bobs of news flying around that are linking together, just nothing official for Navitas.
Regards
LTT
P.S. I also fondly remember the good old days of the iii BB, I used to come home from work, make a brew and catch up on the days events from the usual suspects like OilBrat, Sync (it's full of stars), JMPD (he regularly did something with Rosie and waxed lyrically about his rubber band), Stu I think it was who was more technically trading and left as soon as PMO came on board saying then is was a bad decision. Plus all the other regulars some of who are still posting here. Who was the chap who's wife he called mystic meg, she apparently drew a tear drop shape on a map of the north falklands basin with the narrow bit over Sea Lion and the wide part at the bottom over Isobel/Elaine, this was prior to Sea Lion being discovered, make of that what you will!
Fun days indeed and I hope we can capture that feeling again on this BB. I have a feeling is will happen and then we will head down to drill Isobel and we might just all be saying, "Oh my God, it's full of Stars!"
Hi Godder/Decided , if you check your trading account where you 4.5m shares apparently sit you might find you are £90k+ better off, so I wouldn’t poo poo a rise of 2p!
Plus the volume it pretty good considering how it’s been this past year. Each to their own I suppose. I can imagine as the FPSO offloads its first tanker of oil you will be saying, they won’t be able to sell it, it’s too waxy or it’s too far way, or something or other. You are definitely a glass half empty type that’s 100% certain.
Good luck where you stay in the share or take your £90K and go.
LTT
Thanks Xmtman and Norseman, most appreciated.
LTT
Just wondering if someone with industry knowledge can help, I read the following in an article about Hurricane Energy and the Aoka Mizu;
“The day rate and tariff for the vessel stands at $75,000 per day and 8% of revenue respectively.”
Is this the norm in the industry for FPSO’s, charge a day rate and take a cut? Or is this something Hurricane negotiated to secure the Mizu due the unknown nature of the production profile and contract length.
The reason I ask is, this might be good for Navitas/RKH to get the party started, book the FPSO on a cheaper day rate and give a percentage of revenue for 3 years, then upon contract renewal, rework the contract with the next FPSO that comes in.
It’s getting REALLY exciting now!
LTT
Morning BlooBird,
I was thinking the same, but then it’s the talk of FPSO’s, could it be possible that the Mizu with it topside kit such as compressor, water injection etc, all in place would head down to get the ball rolling. Minimal upgrade/refit so it could be good to go in short order.
Meanwhile the Munin which might need a good bit more work, goes into dock for a complete makeover as it will most likely spend the rest of its days in the Falklands. The Mizo gets the party started with the 5 wells pre-first oil, then 18months later as production it to be ramped up further, the Munin arrives and they are at 60-80k per day, of keep the Mizu and we are looking at 100-120k per day.
Lots of scenarios to think about, but hopefully we should get some meat on the bones soon.
Regards LTT
“The FPSO Munin is a unique FPSO, equipped with DP2 (Fully Redundant Dynamically Positioning) system and external turret to hold a quick disconnectable buoy system for supporting the oil/gas risers. The FPSO is also equipped with a Disconnectable Turret Mooring System to allow conventional mooring. The FPSO has operated successfully in the Lufeng field, Xijiang field and Huizhou field, all located in the South China Sea.
The high flexibility of the FPSO is proven at the Xijiang and Huizhou projects, where the FPSO operated for more than 3 years on full Dynamic Positioning with oil production rates exceeding 90,000 bbl/d.
Presently, the FPSO is at anchorage near Labuan, Malaysia, directly available for redeployment.“
Also I think it’s been mentioned here before, back in August there was an article in Upstream,
“Bluewater optimistic about redeployment of two idle FPSOs Studies funded by clients under way for Glas Dowr and Munin floaters“
All the ducks are lining up, we just need the starts pistol!
Have a good weekend all .
LTT
Thenorseman, I believe the FDP has been submitted, so I imagine the delay is with the EIS. Not sure what an EIS entails, but it could be delayed for any number of reasons. One I could hypothesis is the FPSO might have been changed, maybe they are planning on a bigger FPSO that will do up to 80K per day, one of the impacts being more tankers coming into the area form offload. I presume this would have to be put into the EIS! Could be wrong of course, but it’s just one thought I had.
Still, FIG is on track despite Navitas delays so it’s all good. The next couple of months, if Navitas are to stay on track, should be interesting.
LTT
I can’t help but think the tax bill is left in place as a deterrent. Sam and the board will be well aware that you cannot pay tax on something they didn’t receive.
I imagine it is just left in place to stop a predator take over to get the OM cash should the annulment be thrown out. It makes a lot of sense, it wouldn’t be worth anyone’s while to take over RKH and then spend months if not years arguing with a small town council over getting thier hands on €80m!
No l think it’s left hanging for convenience. IMHO and will be wiped off the slate once the millions are coming into the FIG coffers once they get to first oil.
LTT
BB3,
Yes I agree with you, I did some rough cals myself and came to the conclusion that if they paid out 25% as a dividend in 2028 (not taking into account the loan return to Navitas), the dividend would be larger than the value of my current shareholding today! So surely the share price would have to be many multiples of what it is today. One can but dream.
LTT
Hi Daikihaku1,
I was being conservative when putting out my thoughts. I still believe once we have OM banked, funding in the bag, FPSO being refitted, and FID in the last quarter of the year (fingers crossed) we will be at 50p+ particularly if Shenandoah comes on stream end of 2024.
Hopefully there will be an update from Navitas later in March, I think their quarterly is around the 23rd of March.
LTT
During the past 3/4 years Navitas has tripled its share price. That means on the news of taking on Shenandoah; Beacon partnership; funding; FPSO sorted; long lead items procurement; rig drilling and now on its last well. All these events have bumped up the share price as they get closer to first oil.
What does that tell you? So if we used the same rules for RKH we should see the share price at 35p by the time drilling starts which could be only 18months away.
Then we have OM sign off and the annulment hopefully being thrown out which will add €80m to our war chest. So I think 45p+ per share is not out of the question by the start of 2026. I don’t know about you, but I’ll happily wait another 21 months for such a return, and it could be much more!
Let’s see.
LTT
Navitas are still calling 2026 as the year of first oil. They have stated 5 well prior to first oil, which is about 6/7month of drilling and they are looking for accommodation for Spring 2025. Nowhere have they given signs of that timeline slipping.
They are no PMO promising the earth then going back on it and around the houses. Navitas have only been on this a relatively short time in the scheme of things and yet they have done far, far more, they just haven’t been shouting about it from the rooftops, they have just been getting their heads down and doing what’s important, sending bods the the Falklands, getting FIG up to speed with the right team and sourcing an FPSO, submitting a field development plan and working on the EIA which they are planning to submit this quarter. Eeeermm can you not give then the benefit of doubt? Apparently not and perhaps Mr Market is also short sighted. As you rightly point out, Mr Market is always right, until it realizes it’s got it very wrong.
I have a feeling this will be one of those times.
LTT
The market likes that news, Navitas up almost 4% today.
LTT
I know, but needed a bit of cash, plus I bought them at 2p and sold at 2.5p so a 25% gain is not to be sneezed at.
Don't worry I still have a healthy amount in my ISA.
LTT
And got 2.5p per share, so someone is hovering them up!
LTT
Well their not hanging about are they!
"Those interested in all or part of what was announced must send their proposals to pippa.christie@navitaspet.com, no later than March 1, 2024"
I think Daikihaku1 might have a point, I see FIH share price heading north and an increased dividend over the coming years.
LTT
Well I’d like to imagine a EOI being sent out now means boots on the ground possibly this time next year at the very latest, can’t imagine it being sent out now for December 2025? But who knows.
Thinking out it a bit more however, maybe it is for back end of 2025. Rig mobs down to arrive December 2025, drilling starts for the 5 wells with subsurface being connected up, what would that take 8 or 9 months ( someone with knowledge can amend) prior to first oil, with the FSPO tootling down Q3 2026 to be connected up and testing, then first oil happens December 2026, rig stays and starts drilling the next 6 wells.
Oh if only it was so simple ! LOL.
Regards LTT