The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Totally agree superritch,
very soon we will have the OM cash once FIG get off the pot!!!! ;-)
Then we have the annulment hearing which if it goes in our favour adds to our funds, although we may have to wait a while to get to that point.
Then there is news from Navitas, they could announce at anytime that they are bringing in a partner; have sorted funding; have the FPSO heading off for refit or a rig contract booked, but they could also announce everything together.
At such a time, i'd like to think we would re-rate to at least double what we are at now, then steadily rise into the rig being mobbed and then, drilling starts, then FPSO being hooked up, and then first oil. If we stay at sub 25p while all that is happening I would be selling my Granny to buy more shares because the city must have been blindsided!
Still a rising tide lifts all boats, so I'd expect Borders to get an uplift also, possibly more percentage wise initially that RKH, which is why I also have a small punt in Borders. Good luck to us all.
LTT
But Phil, seems like UKGov is changing its tune,
"the UK could be prepared to back the Falkland Islands government to use its own financial clout and borrowing power to support oil exploration"
The above statement goes against what was said on the 5th of Feb don’t you think? Or an I reading it wrong.
Regards
LTT
I wouldn’t be surprised if FIG borrowed cash to help with funding of Sea Lion and Darwin, the loans backed by UKGov. So they are not directly investing in oil, just supporting FIG to do it.
Interesting times
LTT
Well any take-over in the coming years will require them to buy out the options at well, so it’s a win, win for the new guy.
LTT
Well they won’t be able to take them up for 3 years so they must be planning to stick around. Possibly when they imagine first oil will flow after Sea Lion!
They must have someone on the hook, what would be the point in having share options in 3 years if someone was going to snap up Borders. No I think a partnership is more likely now. Navitas or similar step in offering funding the development for 60/70%, even if Borders can keep 30% they will be a cash cow.
Interesting times, onwards and upwards hopefully.
LTT
Hope you are right Rookie, 3p+ would be nice, 6p+ would be even nicer, but are they walking this up to get another fund raise in or is there another reason?
That do we think is about to happen?
1. They are walking it up for a fund raise
2. They new guy is going to go cap in hand to the city for cash to self fund
3. Someone is going to farm in for funding the lions share and we get to keep 25%
Which one is most likely, considering RKH had 100% of SL with over a $1B spent of appraisals and feed when Harbour walked away, and they got Navitas to loan them most of the money they would need to get to first oil.
LTT
Hi LaticRule,
I cannot see a takeover before, partner, funding or FID, if they had wanted or tried to do that, they would have done it some time ago when RKH was at their weakest, but now with the OM deal likely to happen, they are in a much stronger position.
Once that is done and the touch paper is lit, it will all depend on the share price and how weak or strong it is, but even so, once FID is announced I cannot see many weak holders, they have held on for so long, why sell up when they can see the light at the end of the tunnel.
Also there is the hassle, cannot see Navitas bogging now FIG with MORE work so take over RKH along with sorting FID, they would possibly knock back Sea Lion to 2027 and nobody wants that.
LTT
Not to mention the risks, Darwin West hasn’t been drilled, imagine drilling and the seal wasn’t intact, it was all water. How would that affect the return on investment? Darwin needs appraisals and an exploration well on Darwin West, THEN a plan for development can be worked up. No one is going to head down with a drill ship/5th or 6th Gen rig for a couple of wells. Once RKH has cash coming in from SL, they might share a rig with Borders (if both companies still exist) to drill Darwin West, some appraisals and a couple of exploration wells on RKH Southern acreage, but cannot see it happening before unless a bigger player comes along with Navitas and they pwant some of that condensate action. IMHO
LTT
I believe RKH have lookalike prospects close to Darwin in their adjacent acreage but cannot find anything on the RKH website about the Southern acreage apart from they hold 100%. It could be a bargaining chip if they bring in a 3rd party who might be interested in taking part if it and Darwin.
Can’t see how Darwin can get developed any other way. The presentation Darwin did about a 1 or 2 year return on investment had too many caveats and promises without any real substance. It will be very interesting to see how it all unfolds, but feel Navitas and RKH might be in the mix for a takeover. IMHO
LTT
LTT
Xmtman,
I did have a fantasy idea that Beacon would farm into Sea Lion with RKH and Navitas, they would bring down their drill ship after drilling Shenandoah to do the initial 5 wells on Sea Lion then tootle down to Darwin and drill there.
A drill ship although high cost per day would save on support vessels so it could be viable, but of course only if Beacon farmed in. But as I say, it’s just pie in the sky.
LTT
Hi gus0,
I like the idea of going it alone but cannot see it happening. Nobody is going to guarantee a minnow like Borders to go it alone. When you think what RKH has been through to get into the starters block, there is little chance Borders can do it. Deep water, higher spec rig, not appraised. It seems easy on paper, payback in 1 to 2 years but there are too many caveats. Just one is the rig, high spec, deep water, who it going to bring it all the way to the Falklands for 3 wells? Maybe a share would work with RKH to drill their lookalike prospects, but that is a long way down the road.
No I feel the best scenario is Navitas, new partner and RKH take over Borders for a cash and share offer, that way shareholders get near term excitement with Sea Lion and possibly Isobel and longer term they get Darwin up and running. IMHO
LTT
My buy yesterday at 2p was put down on LSE as a sell, so it makes no sense. I imagine those who pay for live prices will get to see the real info on buys and sells, but I take what I see here with a pinch of salt.
To be totally honest I’m not here for news of a deal for Borders, I am here for the RKH funding and FID news, my rationale is that an incoming tide lifts all boats, and Borders might get more of a lift percentage wise than RKH will. IMHO. If anything else happens then that will be a nice Brucie Bonus. Good luck to us all.
LTT
I imagine there will be a bit of selling or B&B going on now and up to end of March with those shares converted from warrants being put into ISA’s or being sold for a profit to lock in gains for the end of the tax year. I’ve done it myself, it makes a lot of sense, a cheeky 20% isn’t to be sniffed at. Who knows when the next bit of news drops , it could be tomorrow, it could be June before we get FIG to sign off on the OM deal, can’t think what they are waiting for, the sooner it’s done, the sooner RKH has a bit more financial security!
LTT
2% yesterday and almost 4% today.
LTT
The Erik Raude was stacked for 2 years after coming back from the Falklands and then got scrapped!
Hopefully we will get a nice 3rd or 4th gen rig that will be more than up to the task, don't need anything more unless they plan to drill Darwin and the lookalike prospects in RKH 100% owned southern acreage.
Either way, after reading the link posted by BlooBird I feel that Navitas will have a bit of bargaining power, after all, as everyone seems to be turning their backs on oil, who wouldn't be up for securing a 10-15+ year deal on an FPSO/FPSO's and possibly 3-5+ years of rig and support vessels hire! The North Sea is looking more and more shaky, Harbour is exiting for a start, they will still be there, but will only do the minimum that's required IMHO, nothing more. How long before other players follow suit, why put money into anything with a longer life span in the North Sea.
LTT
Also what about the energy trading companies that have made billions from this, no windfall tax on them!
It makes no sense.
LTT
WOW BB3, I’d better sell mine before you start offloading otherwise the price will plummet!!!!!!
;-)
LTT
Hi Space, so if we went to 30p on Partner and Funding news would you sell 100k ;-)
To be honest I’d be happy to break past 15p.
LTT
Hi SpaceHoppa,
sorry if I was unclear, I was working on the annulment hearing taking place in April, but it may be 6 to 9 months until we get the result, which as you rightly say, once the ruling is in our favour, then the 65m hits our account.
Of course if they announce the result in April that would be fantastic, but with the sloth like pace is has progressed so far, I cannot see anything that would make me think it could happen faster. However I live in hope.
Regards
LTT
That is a difficult one, it really depends on what happens to affect the share price. If it goes up to 20p on funding it may be tempting to sell a few, but if they have funding, then FID is a done deal and a rig could be heading down to start drilling 2nd half of 2025. At that point we are just a hop, skip and a jump away from first oil and possibly some exploration/appraisal drilling on Isobel/Elaine!!!!
It really all depends on the reaction on the particular news, then each to their own. Some people’s break even is much higher or lower than others. It will be interesting to see what happens.
For me, I might sell 10% if we got a good rally from funding and partner news, but that’s just me.
LTT