The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
I can't wait for this 33% drop.
Actually, I think it'll be 42%. It costs to play.
IOG management estimates in May - 189BCF
CPR'd numbers today - 181BCF
Substantially lower? Well, I suppose it depends upon your 'thesis' I guess?
Yes that's right trustatrade.
Question would be - would that be a bad position given that without it there'd be no development?
In my view no, but everyone needs to make up their own mind obviously.
Trustatrade - what would your expectation be re. new shares?
I recall a note which suggested IOG raising c. £100mill for phase 1 via debt / equity mix.
Worth checking back though.
Looks to me like 31.5p buys, 31.3p sells.
Excluding that obviously someone is selling to buyers and vice versa.
:)
Good to see Dusty back. The 15 year gas chart (wtf!?) moves this outside his risk profile versus a Mongolian drill for oil. Maybe we could all learn something from that.... Haha.
Good to see AH - seemed confident I thought. As always need to be aware of the risks but still happy with my meagre holding.
It'll soon by Xmas ;)
Poor old Dusty. His passionate cry of "strong sell" and subsequent events seems to have left him/her a little bewildered. It can happen to us all....
Whilst at the same time trying to pump a Mongolian oil drill. It's a funny old world!
Peakview - I'll see you in the Aston dealership c.2020..... maybe ;)
Dunder - I agree totally.
I've got a reasonable amount invested here but on my own understanding that it's a percentage game. After a brief period of rather loud screaming I think I would be able to see the funny side should the very worst happen.
At the other end of the spectrum I'm a cynic and believe that the eventual fate of IOG has likely already been set out amongst the members only clubs of London. Time / price / 'advisor fees' etc etc. We just get to play along in the interim..... but hopefully a profitable game!
Right, must pop to the shops for some more tinfoil, these hats use up much more than you'd expect!
I wouldn't sell a house to buy IOG. A kidney perhaps? ;)
All just part of a big financial game represented by 0s and 1s flying around in cables and signals all around us.
Could all go pop on Monday.
Could 10bag in 18 months.
Either way it'll be a good story for the memoirs!!!
https://www.energyvoice.com/insights/183241/world-set-for-golden-age-of-gas-dnv-gl-chief-says/
As usual, pinch (bucket?) of salt required but an interesting piece nonetheless.
Where is old Duster?
Not been seen since 0730 when he was in his strong sell depths of despair. How can one sell what one doesn't have?
Why sell when you lose the opportunity to moan?
If this goes to 22p I'll donate my entire holding to charity and dedicate the rest of my life to the jehova witnesses.
Cautious, moi... guilty as charged m'lord! :D
The numbers involving less shares and higher gas prices (and given the energy markets... plus it seems 'planned' shift globally toward gas, Rough storage going, the 2018 winter 'shock', Russia playing games, the price of LNG (inc. shipping)) etc etc I'm much more bullish on local gas than 45p, 50p or 60p...) make for very pleasant reading, if a little incredulous (in a "how many zeros?") style fashion.
A little company like IOG, when in the midst/final stages of development, i'm almost certain, with go the way of Ithaca (and of course Venture buying CH4 prior to Chiswick coming on-stream). Some nice company comes along with a bucket of cash, every walks away smiling.
https://www.scotsman.com/news/venture-sees-shares-soar-after-163-153m-ch4-takeover-1-1128871
Nice one 600T, I'm sure IOG will be happy to provide you with the numbers.
Hi 600T.
I understand that there was around 10mill options (inc. those issued use salary sacrifice) at end of 2017, I think mostly 1p options through salary sacrifice. Just under 8mill issued to CEO and CFO this year (exercise prices between 20p & 30p).
Warrants at end of 2017 around 12mill with average exercise price of around 10p. Add recent LOG warrants at 32p (of course non-dilutive to buyers below the exercise price).
Inc. LOG loan conversion I tend to factor in c.350-400mill eventual shares into my calcs for (potential!) future value. Time will of course tell! With a 10yr production profile, even at 50p/therm with a 25p/therm b/e, with a conservative 85% uptime across that period (gas plant, pretty simple) gives c.£80mill pre-tax p/a. 60p/therm pushes that up to £110mill. 45p/therm down to £62mill. Swift project payback across the scenarios and plenty of profit. Exc. any supplementary income via pipeline access tariffs and other assets that may be added to the portfolio. Not too shabby for little old IOG.;)
The Swiss purchase at around 30p is interesting to me - these guys can of course be wrong but they tend to be right... and no doubt know people at the various parties involved in financial negotiations for the project (tut tut I know).
(numbers are a mix of my memory and a brief look again at some of the RNS', mistakes may be present!!!!).
Well gas has surged so much since then, even today (i'm guessing the market is getting shaky with TM statement earlier and how a relationship in energy markets might look post Brexit).....
Even 60p (gas hovering around 80p/therm over next 6months) per therm with b/e sub 25p, at a 1million therms per day, is delivering huge cashflow and profitability for IOG. Gross revenue equal to current MCap in 2 months at that rate & commodity price.
Still risk, still hurdles, still positive of a handsome outcome. I think IOG may have time this absolutely perfectly (part planning / plan fortuitously perhaps with political events).
Just had a check, 3x100k trades on the same day last July.
Maybe they were Duster's!? Eeeeek.
Haha - have no fear, duster will be along in a sec.
Interesting series of trades during the afternoon, feels a mile away since someone was silly enough to sell me 300k shares for 13p.
Looking forward to the next 12-18mths.