Member Info for longinvester

My exact prediction. See my posts.

I knew that but I.5B is there for the taking.

Any bidder only needs to sell and leaseback some of the older planes and withdraw a wodge of cash from ezy bank.

This leaves the real cost of buying considerably lower say 2.5/3 billon. This then produces profits over the next few years which payback the purchase. Price.

At a simple level this is not difficult.

The problem of being bought is firmly in the hands of the board due to their consistent financial conservatism with no action ever to support their own share price.

Bid will arrive. Castlelake has the money to bridge the gap before it puts the above into operation.

JPMorgan raises easyJet price target to 360 (340) pence - 'underweight'

Stelios family can't get a special price for their shares.** Takeover rules mean everyone gets the same price, so the buyer can't quietly pay Stelios more to win him over. The only extra he can squeeze out is separately, through the "easy" brand name he personally owns and the airline must pay to use.

**"Keeping his shares" really means swapping them.** The buyer has offered an option to swap easyJet shares for shares in the new private company instead of taking cash. It's aimed at Stelios — a founder who wants to stay involved. He'd only get money out later, whenever the buyer eventually sells the business.

**Safety nets that could be built in:** his swapped shares could guarantee he gets his money back — at least the deal price — before the buyer takes their cut when the business is sold; and he could be given the right to cash out after a set time at a pre-agreed value. What's *not* allowed is a secret guaranteed future share price just for him — that breaks the rules, and once the airline is private there's no share price left to guarantee anyway.

**The catch:** all of this keeps Stelios inside the business with rights, which clashes with the buyer's plan to load it with debt, sell assets and move it on within a few years. He'd be able to get in the way.

. Keeping stelios family invested is only the backup if they refuses to sell. The open question is just money: if his price to go away cleanly is reasonable, they buy him out completely; if it's too high, they let him swap in with guarantees and live with the constraints.

**How the family's stake shrank:** The founder's family once owned about a third of easyJet. During COVID they sold some shares — part of a long feud with management over a big aircraft order — and then in 2021 refused to buy into a fresh share issue, which watered their holding down to about 15%, where it's stayed. The key tell: Sir Stelios has held on through a huge fall in value without ever selling. That's emotional attachment to the airline he built, not financial logic.

**They didn't shrink equally — and never held equal amounts.** The 15% isn't one holding, it's three, split across the family through two companies: one for Stelios and his sister Clelia, and a separate one (Polys Holdings) for his older brother, Polys. They've always acted together — selling at the same times, for the same reasons — but in different sizes. And the surprise is the pecking order: Stelios owns the *least* of the three. His sister holds about 5.8%, his brother about 5.8%, and Stelios only about 3.7%. The public face of the family is its smallest shareholder. The big 2021 drop hit all three by the same proportion (they all refused the new shares together), which is why those relative sizes stayed the same.

**Why the brother — and sister — matter:** Polys is an unsentimental shipping billionaire; to him, easyJet is just a large investment, not a life's work. For the family to accept or block a deal, all three have to agree — and Stelios can't force it, because his siblings *each* own more than he does and together own roughly three times his stake. His instinct may be to hold; his brother and sister, motivated purely by money, have every reason to take a genuinely full cash offer, and Stelios couldn't stop them.

**Bottom line:** This has been framed as "one attached founder blocking the deal." The reality is friendlier to the buyer: most of the family's shares sit with two relatives who'll judge the offer in pounds and pence, and the founder is outweighed on the shares by his own siblings. Pay a full price and the family is likely persuadable. Stelios keeps one separate piece of leverage — he personally owns the "easy" brand the airline must pay to use — but on the shareholding itself, he's the junior partner, not the gatekeeper everyone assumes.

Any bidder wants to make a profit so will not pay the full notional value of a share. They need a discount.

WHY.

The money they offer is real in your hand and discounted down taking into account the many years it might take the current board to get the SP to the levels they are aiming for. If indeed they actually manage it!

The bidder may also have quite a different approach to running the company both operationally and financially. Maybe along the lines often suggested by others here, be more entrepreneurial than Jarvis can manage.

The bid is based on either assets or profits not both cumulatively as many sem to be confused about.

The holidays strategy is great but it is NOT a standalone company it is a parasitical division which would be worth a huge amount less be split from the easy brand and planes/website/customer based.

I'm going to gradually offload easyjet from a very large holding and I noticed that one of my share sales is showing up on the EzyJet trades on this website as a buy which is obviously not the case.

Need to way up plus and minus of NO bid.

Hedge bet by pound cost averaging over the next week.

**Most likely price: around 690–710 pence, best case ~720–730.**

The logic: 650p was the bid that got the board to open its books. In past UK takeovers, once a board grants due diligence access, it has effectively moved from "no" to "show us your best." Those deals usually complete, and at a price only modestly above the bid that unlocked them — typically 5–15% higher. On 650p, that's roughly 680–730p, converging on ~700.

Two forces set where in that range it lands:

- **Capping it (keeping it near 700, not above):** no rival bidder. Buyers only pay top dollar in an auction, and there isn't one here — rival airlines are blocked by competition rules, and Castlelake is a disciplined financial buyer inching up in shrinking steps. No one is forcing its hand.

- **Flooring it (keeping it above 650):** the board has a real asset backing — the planes alone are worth ~625p, the slots far more than the books show. So they can credibly demand "pay us for more than just the metal," worth perhaps another 40–60p.

**The caveat:** this isn't a clean case. The founder's silent 15% stake is a roadblock a normal take-private wouldn't face. So realistically there are two outcomes — it gets agreed around 690–710, which the base rate favours, or it breaks on the founder or the deadline and the shares fall back toward the high-400s/low-500s. Likely ~700 *if* it completes, not a certainty that it will.

Trustnet reminds me that EASYJET has gone up 0.1 % in the last year and is ££% DOWN in last 5 years.

If you look up the regulations regarding bids, this actually would be something that is unnecessary and not helpful to them to actually buy any shares at the moment

Is Jarvis the kier starmmer of the airline world?

I have 113,000 shares now in profit. I built holding as share nosedived.

The board. Are not looking after me and I will start selling chunks to avoid another big drop if things go south. I won't Sell all but I'm tired of this share and no confidence in the future returns.

It's run by an accountant not stelios I expect nothing but average moves.

EasyJet/Castlelake — where things stand

The FT report. The Financial Times says easyJet's big shareholders want at least £600 million more than Castlelake's 625p offer — pointing to a price of around 700p, the shareholders who leaked it have an obvious motive to push the price up. The board's own "on the cheap" comment and the rising share price support the general direction, even if the exact £600m figure is unconfirmed.

The bid structure. A company owned 51% by two EU nationals and 49% by Castlelake, who put up the money. The board attacks it as "opaque" but the structure using Vienna is already very opaque.

The board's position. It has refused to open its books, which blocks Castlelake's clean route to a deal, Stelios (15.3% stake) has said nothing publicly — which is itself telling. No rival airline has emerged to bid, and the lack of an airline partner means there are no cost savings to fund a higher price but maybe they will after the bid is successful, some selloffs or leasing deals to generate cash.

New planes and Holidays — what they add to profit. On easyJet's own figures: profit was £665m last year, and the £1bn target needs about £335m more. Holidays already makes £250m and is heading to £450m, adding maybe £100–130m over three years. New planes save £10–16 per seat when they replace old ones, worth perhaps £80–150m over three years. Together, very roughly £200–280m of extra pre-tax profit in three years — real and meaningful, but not enough on its own to hit £1bn, inflation makes it £1.2BN and it is maybe possible in 5or 6 years time. The target is essentially "get back to where easyJet was in 2018. CAN YOU WAIT?

Reinvesting the 625por even better 700p. Cash isn't static. Reinvested at a normal 7–8%in a worldwide index fund, 625p roughly doubles in a decade, diversified and at lower risk.

Bottom line. Shareholders, via the FT, are signalling they'd say yes at around 700p, I would accept 625p the future is NOT bankable.

Stelios has kept his shares despite the huge drops in value.

Regarding the bid he can NOT (by law) receive preferential treatment to others, however a seat on the new board maybe something he would like, he would still be a minority shareholder so no change there.

Private investors are irrelevant in this, with no power to change either board or SP.

How can the board say it is not in shareholders interest when they have done nothing to support/increase the share price in the last 5 years.

48641 is shares of kenton jarvis according to this site

Who holds more shares than Jarvis who has 47K