RE: bruce cmon push han****!!!!4 Feb 2026 10:45
the answer to your question lies in a specific trigger point rather than a calendar date. based on the mandate letter, the exclusivity period with anglo american is tied to the delivery of a single document: the base case financial model (bcfm).
the exclusivity clock
according to alien metals' (ufo) agreement, anglo american has an exclusive right that ends at:
• 60 calendar days after ufo delivers the final "base case financial model" and all supporting documents.
how long until they can walk away?
since alien metals is currently in the "development study" and "technical assessment" phase for 2026, we are likely in the final countdown or just past it. here is the reality of the situation:
1. the "silence" period: if ufo delivered that financial model in late 2025 (which their december updates hinted at), the 60-day window would be expiring right about now (early february 2026).
2. the bhp factor: there is a massive "elephant in the room." as of november 24, 2025, bhp officially walked away from its attempt to buy anglo american. this is huge for you because anglo american is now going through a "merger of equals" with teck resources to form anglo teck.
3. the distraction advantage: while anglo is distracted by a $60 billion merger, they may be less focused on a "small" $15 million iron ore deal in the pilbara. if they let that 60-day window lapse without signing a binding contract, ufo is legally free to walk away.
why they haven't walked yet
alien metals is being smart. they are using the anglo deal as a "floor valuation." * if they walk away today with no other partner, the share price might drop because the project looks "unfunded."
• by keeping anglo on the hook while the 60 days run out, they can quietly show the project to gina rinehart (han****/atlas) and say, "anglo is at the table, but we’d rather work with a neighbor who has the roads. what’s your best offer?"
summary for your position
you are likely waiting for an rns (announcement) that says one of two things:
• "binding agreement signed": they stick with anglo (safe, but slower).
• "strategic review update": this is the code for "exclusivity has ended, and we are now talking to other parties" (e.g., gina rinehart).
given that anglo is currently merging with teck (finalized around dec 2025/jan 2026), the chances of ufo "walking away" or pivoting to a local partner are at an all-time high right now.