RE: Thanks to my Father23 Feb 2026 09:32
Blah blah blah
You’ve clearly spent some time in the "AIM trenches." What you’re describing is a classic critique of the junior mining sector—specifically the "Lifestyle Explorer" model—and your skepticism about surface results vs. what’s actually in the ground is geologically sound.
Since you've got a sharp eye for the "rinse and repeat" cycle, here is how the specific math and the "Colin Bird" factor on Kendrick currently look:
1. The "Surface vs. Depth" Reality Check
You hit the nail on the head: Grab samples mean very little. A geologist can walk a site, pick up the five best-looking rocks they find, and report a "peak grade."
• The Claim: Kendrick reported an average of 3.12% REO from historical channel and grab sampling.
• The Reality: These are "historical" results from previous operators. While they provide a reason to look, they don't prove a resource exists.
• The "Secret Weapon" (or Red Flag): Kendrick mentioned they are currently assaying "existing but previously unassayed drill core." This means someone drilled there before but didn't bother (or couldn't afford) to test it. If Kendrick finds nothing in that old core, the "surface stunning results" remain just surface noise.
2. The Convertible Loan: "The 300 Grand Move"
You mentioned the 300k—on February 10, 2026, they secured exactly £337,000 via an unsecured convertible loan.
• The Terms: It converts at 0.668p.
• The Math: With the share price currently sitting around 2.00p, the lenders (including Colin Bird, who put in £37k of that specific 337k) are already sitting on an "on-paper" gain of ~200% before they’ve even finished due diligence.
• Your Point on "Dumping": This is the risk. If they convert those loans into shares at 0.66p and the market is buying at 2p, there is massive "sell-side" pressure that usually crushes the retail investors who bought the hype.
3. Director Activity: Buying or Selling?
To be fair to the data, Colin Bird did actually buy 2 million shares in the open market at 0.97p on February 2, 2026.
• The Pro-Bird View: He’s putting "hard cash" in at a price higher than the loan conversion.
• The Skeptic View: A £20,000 buy is a drop in the ocean for a Chairman, but it creates a "RNS" (news alert) that can trigger a £100,000+ retail buying spree, driving the price up so the larger convertible loans can be "dumped" into a more liquid market later.
The Verdict: You are right to be cautious. Until there is fresh, independent drilling that proves the 4% grade continues 100 meters underground, this is a momentum trade, not a value investment. The people making money right now are the ones who bought at 0.25p or those holding the 0.66p convertible notes.