Member Info for londoner7

Tornado10, thanks for your post.

I did a double take on your peak gas production number of ~334 MMscf/d, but as you say that's max peak rate; and assumes a perfect scenario.

I looked at the mid case on 2 wells (not 3) over the three peak years 2030-2032. The average is 171 MMscf/d, or 30,000 boepd.

Ithaca has a 50% holding, so 15,000 boepd. To put this in context that is roughly the same as Ithaca's expected output from their 20% holding in Rosewell - though Roswell has a much longer plateau.

The joint partner with the other 50% is Adura, the tie up between Shell and Equinor, so they'll bring some clout to commercial negotiations with the host processing facilities.

My understanding is that over the years Hamilton and Wallace have made loans to their investment vehicle, Westmarket Corporation Pty Ltd, which are now a loan liability on the GEX balance sheet accruing interest at 8% p.a. They acquired GEX stock in the RTO as a result of what now looks to be an inflated valuation of the Hussar licence. GEX still don't own the Mt Winter prospect on EPA 155 - that is owned by Mosman until GEX secure the exploration permit and pay Mosman AU$300K. Hussar was a private transaction but I suspect the Hussar licence was also acquired for peanuts. Given the valuation assigned at the RTO these numbers are the basis of what I mean by inflated valuations.

Peterlowen, thanks for clarification on the environmental statement.

The licence extension to 30th Sept 2027 was granted, and reported by Ithaca at the 2025 interims.

"Also they put in £2.5million of THEIR OWN MONEY to assist listing on LSE."

Referencing the RTO prospectus can you clarify what you mean by 'own money' and where the £2.5m number comes from?

Last years Cambo licence extension runs to 30th Sept 2027.

"Much as the dividend is welcome, I didnt buy into this share originally as an income stock."

I did buy into HBR as an income stock, which now has a big question mark over it since they are abandoning their fixed payment dividend model. Like many, I'll probably hold till we get clarity on dividends at the finals. That might define HBR as an income or growth play. But if it's growth, it's a more challenging read.

Hi Tamak,

I guess ENQ will report YTD numbers at the next update, so I'd expect some commentary on Kraken. But I'm not sure about your comment on one train operation. Prior to the latest offload the cycle seemed to be to just be following the natural field decline.

How do you know the '34 day trip' (19th Nov) was the Waldorf lift?

SEA looks promising, but for now I still think the North Sea forms the bulk of revenues and cash flows. When other markets produce a significant impact on cash flows I'll take notice.

romaron, I'm wary of attributing anything to daily price fluctuations other than an RNS. I used to believe that the operational goings on were always known to the markets, now I'm less convinced.

Ingrid Knutsen has docked on the Kraken FPSO.

Any watchers of these activities will know this is long overdue. I thought I'd seen guidance of a 15 day maintenance window in Q3. That didn't happen and now wonder if it was deferred into 2026. Looking again, I can't any reference to maintenance due in 2025, so I probably misread an old report.

Regardless, unless someone saw an offload in Jan, which I missed, there has been a delay in offloading - perhaps due to scheduled maintenance rather than a problem. No doubt the next trading update will clear this up, but I'm surprised any scheduled maintenance activity on Kraken wasn't mentioned in the Dec update.

At least he was honest. Helium is for the birds. The EWT on Sagebrush is a long shot.

I expect this to be the old Mosman play of drill for oil hoping for a return on investment. They might luck out and It happens but previous drills have come up short - including those where HM has invested his own cash. The guys who sold Sagebrush to Mosman would be well acquainted with Sagebrush prospects for oil. Mosman bought on the case for Helium and it seems to me they are already bringing back oil prospectively as the fall back.

The Sagebrush well didn't flow at a commercial rate for Helium. The argument made for the EWT is that the original well, and flow rate, was compromised by well integrity. An EWT will prove it one way or the other, but the original flow rate was modest, so they are looking for a significant improvement to it to now be commercial. At this stage I think they have to complete the EWT. But if it doesn't come off the next drill will be focused on oil, and no, it isn't funded.

I'm hoping for clarity on the status of the Captain field.

Four years of decline in British construction demand threatens jobs and future capacity, warns MPA

https://mineralproducts.org/News/2026/release02.aspx

London falling

The London market bore the brunt of this downturn, particularly for ready-mixed concrete, where annual sales volumes fell by a record 27% in 2025 and stood some 39% below 2023 levels.

11th Dec 2025 - Breedon Group acquire Hardcrete Mini-Mix Concrete

"The acquisition, for an undisclosed sum, enhances Breedon’s operational capabilities in the south of England, combining their national scale and resources with Hardcrete’s trusted local reputation and regional expertise. Hardcrete will continue to serve customers across Hertfordshire, London, and Middlesex."

24th Dec 2025 - Breedon reaches agreement to acquire Booth Precast Products Limited

"Acquisition will deliver on Breedon’s strategy, securing scarce mineral reserves to supply the Dublin market and increasing vertical integration in Ireland."

These look like good counter cyclical moves.

27/2/23 I posted,

"On a near term PE measure Senior still looks overpriced.

But my view for the last couple of years was that Senior has the production capabilities and markets to recover to previous highs. Nothing flashy, perhaps more bid interest along the way, and in my experience of the post 2008 recovery, very hard to trade. I'll simply hold my stake unless I see a significant problem flagged in the trading updates.

I expect a bumpy ride but to look back on a good compound annual return on my investment by 2025-26."

Well, after three years it's a decent compound return, 14% p.a. (incl. dividends).

This morning, I've top sliced 10% of my holding for a different opportunity, but I'll give the balance a few more years. I think the growth phase has been delayed on my original expectation, but it seems the market is still willing to pay a high PE in the mean time. This sort of industrial company is thin on the ground these days, and product development in the aerospace industry is a slow process. But when the two incumbents have 10 year order books, I can be patient.

The simple answer is, no!

"this stock with competent managenent would be at £2-3 not 2-3p but......take all the time you like. working that one out"

Last March there were questions over whether Hussar and Mt Winter were a 'cost effective endeavor'. I came to the conclusion they were not when these guys first attempted to launch this enterprise over 5 years ago - I commented on the MSMN board at the time.

I would be surprised if either licence ever sees a drill. Given the business model - GEX confirm commercial resource and off-takers invest capital to extract the resource - the idea that GEX is now effectively out of the loop with off-takers putting up the capital to confirm the commercial resource as well is bizarre. No one bought into the this business model via an IPO, so why should anyone invest in the risk now? The RTO provided back door entry to a listing, but the business model is still flawed. No management can change that!

They were always going to fall back to Central's Helium assets - I named them a year ago. These guys have no where else to go, and Central having been bitten twice by these speculative unfunded plays have covered themselves with the conditions of, 25% holding, a prospectus and £7m working capital.

Work out the numbers. At 3p any funding to achieve Central's conditions means a massive dilution. Yes, dilution of the directors free shares from the RTP too. But they still hold their cash investment in the form of a loan.

Anyone that's landed here thinking their on to something special, should do some research beyond reading posts by similarly affected punters. The MO of these highly speculative investments is to lie low while the disappointment of the earlier investors fades in the hope that a rehash of the failed model can be sold to fresh blood.

* I follow these stocks (GEX, MSMN/QHE) for entertainment, not investment. Look out for the audited accounts to Jan 31st 2026 - I'd be amazed if GEX are allowed to launch a prospectus on the Central deal without updated audited accounts.

The consent on Rosebank was withdrawn following a court ruling that its environment submission did not address scope 3 emissions.

The government/regulator issued amended environmental requirements for scope 3 emissions.

Shell (Jackdaw) and Equinor (Rosebank) have submitted revised environmental standards to address scope 3 emissions.

It isn't about showing reduced scope 1 or scope 2 emissions. On scope 3 the product is refined / set on fire / converted to plastics / or whatever. But we import oil products with the same ultimate destination and resultant scope 3 emissions.

I have no doubt the submissions from Shell and Equinor meet the revised requirements. Delays to consent and the ultimate timing of the consent will be driven by politics. If consent is rejected or revisions are not accepted, because Ed and his mates don't like it, the decision will go to a judicial review. I wouldn't put it past them to put on some political show, but ultimately consent will be given, unless a change is made to UK law banning all future development consents. Labour has no such plans

Second, what does this 'no change to EPL' mean for Ithaca?

I'm inclined to say, good and bad. Of course reducing the rate of EPL and/or increasing capital allowances would have been beneficial to Ithaca's activities in the short term. But given the first year capital relief on the EPL, with the EPL ending March 2030 latest. I've made the point before that Ithaca is in a good position to benefit from the EPL transition, given the scope of its projects.

On Rosewell, which I expect to get consent, 2026 will see the final year of c.$200m p.a. capex (before capital allowances) and production is expected to commence by the start of 2027, so 3 years of production under the 38% EPL charge. But production is expected to remain on plateau through the early 2030s, so a step up in cash flows from the end of the EPL in March 2030.

I estimate that the running EPL charge to Ithaca is around $750m p.a. but the EPL capital allowance reduces this to below $500m cash tax paid. Guidance for this cash charge is c.$300m in 2025, but medium guidance is c.$500m p.a. In 2027 Ithaca will be looking for another $200m+ new project spend. Cambo fits the profile nicely, albeit with a c.50% farm down. If FID occurs mid 2026, I can envisage production startup in 2030. Clarity on what follows the EPL should encourage potential farm-ins.

And Ithaca has a variety of other projects of varying capital intensity and duration to plug the gaps in utilising the EPL allowance before it expires in 2030. Also, the Q3 results included news of a 50% farm-in to Shell's Tobermory licence and insight into a West of Shetland Area Strategy. These developments are all likely to benefit from pre-2030 EPL capital allowances.

We're off for a ride. They'll be bumps along the way so hold onto your hat,

First the politics

The failure to provide any EPL relief in yesterday's news was the headline story on BBC Scotland news. The O&G industry was described as being in shock - I guess this follows their submissions that a relaxation of the EPL would have provided net economic gains to the UK. But consider the politics. With the upcoming devolved government elections in mind (May 26), who currently not intending to vote Labour would have switched their vote to Labour if there had been some relaxation of the EPL. Conversely, how many intending to vote Labour would vote for another party if Labour had relaxed the EPL.

I believe that was the political decision behind leaving the EPL undisturbed.

On the O&G submissions, I'd guess that reducing the current EPL charge would not have been compensated by additional activities over say, the next 5 years, which is all that counts in terms of the fiscal rules. But that said, there has been a significant reduction in the OBR's forecast in future tax revenues since their last forecast in March. In part it is due to a reduction in oil and gas prices but M&A activity has also played a significant part in the reduction. M&A activity which results in tax losses in company A, which are in limbo, being utilised by Company B, reduces the tax take. With clarity on what follows the EPL we may see a pickup in M&A activity, putting further pressure on the OBR tax revenue forecasts.

Interview - comments on Hussar.

I'd guess this is as much clarity as we're likely to get on a Hussar well re-entry before publication of the prospectus.

working on an outline of infrastructure required

looking at mobilising a rig

native titles

detailed process

3,000 Km away

He might as well have summed it up with, kicked into the long grass. (Not that there's much long grass in a desert)

Dai2belts, you're right to highlight the date 'March 24', again I have my years mixed up. It should read March 2025. This was the date a contracted independent consultant submitted a report on CTP's assets. But it was the 'cost-effective endeavor, comment on Hussar and Mt Winter that jumped out at me.

Remember the proactive interviews around that time - I can remember sensing that GEX had taken their foot off the gas, while this chat board was awash positivity on progress. It prompted me to look back to the status of re-entry at the time of the RTO, and this excerpt caught my eye.

"The first AEM-PTP survey at Hussar by Georgina was completed in 2022. Subject to positive results from the interpretation of the AEM-PTP survey and review of the existing airborne gravity dataset, during the Working Capital period the Company proposes to commence the re-entry and deepening of the Hussar-1 well, to a new proposed TD of approximately 3,200 meters."

I wondered why key data set obtained in 2022 hadn't been 'positively interpreted' by the time of the RTO in July 2024.

While focus here was on drilling permits, I felt the low chance of lifting Helium to surface on a Hussar well re-entry at only 8% was too low for GEX to risk the drill before securing additional funding as a back stop. I posted on this in Feb 2025 and earlier. I also referred to replicating the HE1 funding model.

RNS 11th Nov 25 referenced the consultants report from March 2025.

Correction to 2025

'Remember this - RNS dated 14th July 2025'