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A bit too early to state that.

The share price remains below 105p and we could have had 105p risk free on 29 January.

Thanks Barchid, I hadn't notice that.

Very interesting.

Hi all,

Interesting RNS from the National Farmers Union which shows that they are happy to sell circa 0.8m of their 14.2m holding at 100.93p.

Good morning Millionaire,

This is not strictly true because there have only been two significant changes in the holdings from the opening positions declared on 29th January.

Sand Grove Capital have increased by 1.14% and The Bank of Nova Scotia have reduced by 0.66%.

Total holdings declared were 37%.

Good luck all.

*Friday

Off to Costa because I need my coffee.

Good morning all,

This is slightly off topic and not important but in the last RNS on Monday there is a disclosure submitted by Richard Nead stating a shareholding of 2.74% owned by Janette Nead which would total circa £18m. The number of shares is stated as 2,053 does not reconcile to the percentage holding.

I thought it was unusual to have an individual on these disclose forms, so I searched Companies House, and they are owners of a company called Sladehome Ltd whose principal activity is that of sharedealing with an annual turnover of £2k.

They've obviously made a mistake but it's comforting to know that there is a person, somewhere in the world, called Janette Nead who holds £2k and every little helps if Platinum go hostile.

Have a nice weekend everyone.

Good evening all,

Is the timing of the Brains transaction, after hours, significant?

Could it in anyway deter a potential bidder?

Thanks

Hi Fairdealer,

I agree with you and I'm sure Carlsberg would jump at the chance to buy the other 40%.

I also agree that I think the Board could rebuff much higher offers. We have a longstanding CEO who's probably more concerned about the legacy of "his" company rather than what's in the best interests of shareholders.

I hope I'm wrong...

I also neglected to include the 40% joint venture with Carlsberg which could free up circa £300m if sold.

Good morning Trent,

Brains had EBITDA of circa £14m pre-COVID less £5.5m rent payable is a profit of £8.5m which is highly immaterial and just noise given the debt of circa £1.6 billion.

The value of the Group is in the real estate it owns and a P/E firm can increase the leverage to much higher levels than a public company to either invest in growth or pay dividends hence Platinum's interest.

Thanks Fairdealer

Do you think having so many small shareholders makes that approach difficult?

Hi Adeg,

Are you 100% sure shareholders get to vote if a formal bid is put forward even if management reject the offer?

Thanks

Good morning all,

The share price on 29 Jan '20, 12 months prior to the non-binding offer, was 105.4p which is very close to the actual offer of 105p.

Is this just a coincidence?

It should be quite interesting because I have no idea which way the share price will move today.

It will drop if the market thinks there is little chance of a deal but the opposite will happen if they think Platinum will return with another offer.

Good luck!

Hi Barnet,

I concur with your sentiments.

I think Platinum will walk away after 3 failed bids because Marstons appear immovable from their current position.

Only time will tell if this proves to be the correct choice...

Good luck all.

Hi All,

To state my position, I would accept £1.05 for my holding because it's a decent premium and I like to bank gains.

Questions for people in the know:
1) Why would Platinum, a P/E firm, buy on the open market if they cannot be guaranteed to own 100% of the issued share capital?
2) What viable options do Platinum have if management refuse to accept their offer given the fragmented nature of the shareholdings as evidence by the 8.3 RNS'?

Thanks all

Thanks for the insight.

In that case, LSV might not be a new position given the holding is less than 3%.

We only know that 5% of the total share capital were bought and sold on Friday.

Hi Fair,

Agreed, I don't know the fair value of the brewery properties, however I also excluded cash which should also be deducted from debt.

Under IAS 40, you are not required to independently value the properties each year, however I appreciate your point of Director valuation bias but the auditors signed off the accounts which is particularly tough in this uncertain environment.

Further evidence of upside can also be gained by the near 5% share purchases by two big players as evidenced by the recent RNS'.

I can only state how I see it and I could be completely wrong.

Thanks

Good morning all,

I've valued the pubs based on the fair value of the properties because that part of the business is loss making and have valued the brewery part based on the recent merger. All figures have been taken from the Annual Report for year ended 3 Oct '20 and I've excluded normalised working capital balances which would not be deducted from the EV.

(£m's)
Buildings FV = 1626
Assets held for Sale = 350
Brewery Business (40% share) = 312
EV = 2288

Bank Borrowings = -270
Securitised debt = -716
Sale and leaseback obligations = -362
Total = -1348

Price = 940

Let's say the offer ends up at 750m because the P/E firm would need their upside, this would translate to a share price of £1.14.

I hope this helps and it's going to be an interesting month especially if another bidder enters the fray.

Thanks

Good morning Razors Edge,

Excellent find.

I disagree with Liberian because, as stated by JL, we know they are moving manufacturing overseas which will mitigate the increased costs of transitioning to ethical suppliers.

Boohoo's big mistake was paying below the minimum wage in a developed country, investors are less concerned by shortcomings in emerging/developing countries as evidenced by the recent scandals in our competitors with little impact on the share price.

I really hope management have learnt this lesson and keep UK manufacturing to a minimum.

Goid luck all.

Good evening all,

Good posts and to add my pennies worth.

I work in finance for a PE backed company and you soon learn that cash earning next to nothing is a big taboo!

We have circa £400m of free cash and we should make an acquisition as soon as possible, if not, deploy organically to generate growth.

I'm really sorry but the odds of listing on NASDAQ are very low. We can confirm this by looking at the actual companies that have moved from AIM, such as Puretech and other companies, to calculate a probability.

Good luck all.