RE: Figures out this morning.24 Jul 2023 11:11
Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson,
Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market
Intelligence said:
“The UK economy has come close to stalling in July which, combined with gloomy forward-looking indicators, reignites recession worries.
“July's flash PMI survey data revealed a deepening
manufacturing downturn accompanied by a further cooling of the recent resurgence of growth in the service sector.
“Rising interest rates and the higher cost of living appear to be taking an increased toll on households, dampening a post-pandemic rebound in spending on leisure activities.
Meanwhile, manufacturers are cutting production in
response to a worryingly severe downturn in orders, both from domestic and export markets.
“Forward-looking indicators, such as order book inflows, levels of work-in-hand and future business expectations, all point to growth weakening further in the months ahead, adding to a risk of GDP falling in the third quarter. “An upside to the deteriorating growth and demand picture is a further cooling of inflationary pressures. Manufacturing prices are falling at an increased rate and service sector inflation is continuing to moderate. Although ongoing upward wage pressures mean service sector price growth
remains elevated, the survey data signal further,
potentially marked, falls in consumer price inflation in the months ahead.”