Member Info for livepari4

“looking at market cap/share price from before covid 630, then adding the dilution (3 new shares for every existing 2) it would give me 250 if I'm correct”
Canary
This doesn’t look correct. To get the new price from old, one has to find it’s two-thirds. (Ie multiply old price by 0.67.)
As an example, old price of 600 equates to new price of 400.

Selling some legacy business is a positive, it’s also getting into newer businesses which are strategic to future profitability.

I expect an increase in SP after results based on 2021 guidance and improved outlook.

S&P 500 is up nearly 2%, Nasdaq up by 3.5%. Can’t understand why FTSE is struggling today. All my stocks in red except Nex.

Am I right in thinking that the gains from the stock market tend to be concentrated over a very few number of days. IAG in moving from 91 to 212 had 7-8 good days only on which most of the jumps happened. Anyone who was not holding the stock on those days would likely have missed the gains. Since we do not know when those days will occur, it makes sense to hold the stocks than be left out of it.

Hope another good day tomorrow. Very pleased with RR and Lloyds today, other two of my bigger holdings.
GLA

Any new news in the results will be good. All bad news is already out there. Should be closer to 130 on results day.

Emerald
Makes no sense to restrict travel on fear of mutations/variants as they can occur anywhere. It has already been observed that similar variants are emerging independently across countries.

My reasons for believing that 300 is much more likely than 150 in the months to come.

1. Vaccinations at a very high pace in the US and evidence that vaccines are being effective by about 80-90%.
US is the top destination for BA flying to over 20 cities there.
2. Vaccinations fast picking up in Europe.
France, Italy and Spain are amongst top 5 BA destinations after US and UK. Tourism comprises significant part of their economy and they would do all they can to ensure another tourist season is not washed out.
3. Collapse of Norwegian, acquisition of Air Europa and less long haul competition from Virgin puts IAG in a much better market position than before the pandemic.
4. Pent up demand with people looking to go on holidays after a prolonged stay at home.
5. IAG has used the pandemic as an opportunity to get rid of various legacy problems. It’s has restructured and refocused to be more profitable in future.
6. Lot of FI money would be flowing into pandemic recovery sector from tech and other overvalued sectors.
IAG is likely to be a big beneficiary and already seeing high share trading volumes.

On the downside, the pandemic recovery could take longer than anticipated but most indicators suggest opposite.
Business travel may not return to pre Covid. But this affects all long haul players who will adapt to this in various ways to stay profitable.
Please DYOR.

Today’s close seems a sudden aberration/overreaction towards the end. It was around 212-213 before the sudden dip. Fall wasn’t IAG specific - most travel stocks dipped by similar amount of 5% at nearly the same time.

Steep decline in S&P and Nasdaq at the US open could be the reason. Both indices have since rebounded nicely. Expect 215 open on Monday. Allow for any positive or negative news on the weekend.

Skindle

I get your point - I wouldn’t want anyone to bet his money on IAG based on what I say or what anyone else here says. Investing in stocks is very risky and everyone should be aware of the risks. There are a lot of assumptions which may not be true, most importantly that the pandemic will go away in a few months. Or travel will be back to normal later half of 2021. Will request everyone to exercise due diligence before investing.

On a day when most major us airlines plunge 3-5% and FTSE is red this has ended the day in green. It seems it will continue to rise another 50% from here as it’s still very low compared to peers. DYOR on google esp compare it’s scale of Covid recovery with other long haul airlines like Delta, American Airlines, United, Lufthansa, Quantas, JAl, Singapore Airlines, Aeroflot and many others.

“All the travel stock suddenly took a nose dive at 3pm ???“

Seems to me it’s the effect of stocks opening much in red in the US markets.

“Current price per shares looks around 60% over valued with no income still”

TR64
Market is looking into future income and not current income. It’s the expected income for 10-12 years ahead. Pandemic will pass in few months time. IAG is strategically well placed to come out of the pandemic stronger. Comparable airlines across the globe are about just 20% or so below their pre-Covid price. IAG needs to be about 350, it’s massively undervalued imo.

If it’s able to breach 225 tomorrow (it’s not very far from it) then I see 250 coming next week. That’s because it needs less than 10% rise to be there. One good day in a week will bring in 7-8% and it should hold on remaining days which it has managed to do in very recent history. GLA, DYOR

All my recovery stocks in green. Considering that there was huge sell off in Tech stocks it’s becoming increasingly clear that money is moving out from tech to recovery stock. IAG is nearing 220 at the moment and still a potential to double from here in a matter of months. Dyor

An up day for IAG likely again today though wider markets could be down. Airline stocks ended in green in the US yesterday despite indices falling due to tech slide.

5p movement can’t be ruled out. Don’t think direction will be down as economic growth has been revised upwards. 5p move up from here will take it to 45. Could be possible considering it’s lagged it’s peers in recovery due to strong 40p resistance.

I think RTN has already recovered a lot since the pandemic lows. Looking at its one year chart it has quadrupled since Mar 20 lows and sits less than 25% of its pre Covid price. Lot of other recovery stocks have much more ground to cover and so attracting more buyers in the hope of recovery.