Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
Rail is only 15% of GOG projected profits. One or two contract issues for a significantly undervalued share still doesn't say sell to me. I'm going to let it settle for a few weeks.
Rail makes up about 16% of the 2023 forecast operating profits and there were 3 large contracts including SE I believe. Link to analysts estimates below:
https://www.go-ahead.com/investors/analysts-and-consensus
It's not great news but a quick PE calc based on 2023 forecasts and then halving to be majorly conservative still results in this share being a buy now
The BAU price I get is £1.80 based on 2023 consensus forecast from Hyve website:
https://hyve.group/Investors/Forecasts
Assume EPS of £0.10/share in 2023.
PE 18
EPS 0.10
Share Price 1.80
There's upside, especially with a conservative EPS, but another share dilution through a rights issue or PIPE will have impact unless purely for growth and acquisition.
They can survive to end of 2022 (and beyond) based on latest few trading statements
1,545p (not calculating in dividends) is the recovery price and then it will hopefully do well after that as a normal business
Hyve is currently trading between the Group’s two modelled scenarios, “Recovery”(1) and “East West”(2). In either scenario, Hyve maintains its strong liquidity position and has visibility of significant cash headroom throughout FY21 and FY22.
The word "throughout" is comforting
@Roguemale1 Running the numbers based on the last full year results, the things to watch for are 1) positive cash flow and 2) a return to profitability trajectory. I know this sounds OBVIOUS but I say it because they have sufficient cash reserves based on prior results but need to manage carefully.
The interesting number for me is the deferred income figure. It looks like Hyve receives cash in advance for future bookings which to me is the key deciding factor in operating cash availability.
@DireEmblem - I think you've taken a decent conservative view on those figures. My back of the fag packet calc didn't reduce earnings by 50% as I think there will, in addition, be some adequate cost control by a good cash producer. They're happy to keep the dividends going also which shows confidence.
I assume the Ofgem thing (deserved if true) will hurt at 10% of revenue (max) but it's not disastrous and whilst it will smart it won't cripple them.
Out of interest, British Gas was fined 1.73 million pounds recently for bungling the shift from Paypoint to Payzone:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-british-gas-ofgem/british-gas-paid-1-73-million-pounds-for-mishandled-payment-changes-idUKKBN25N0N1
I can't tie the Reuters report to the GOG financial results! I think Reuters fundamentally misunderstood the 90% revenue item plus put its own spin in re: uncertainty..
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-go-ahead-group-results/go-ahead-warns-of-uncertainty-on-second-wave-fears-idUSKCN26F0PZ
Very unusual to have bad reporting from Reuters (they did an earlier article in the morning which disappeared)
I think it's because sellers don't want to sell (for very good reasons) and BIG buyers want to hit a certain mark (they're trying their luck)
If you look at the size of trades this morning you can see it's small amounts indicating it's the home traders creating a false price. The real price (higher I think) will return when the overall risk appetite of bigger traders returns (which I assume will be early next year). This is a 2 year hold for me based on the results from this morning.
Future dividends will be good also
Bought in again with a 2-5 year view
A profitable company (even this financial year) with a decent balance sheet. I bought it.. again