Member Info for Lindon

.... Hikma and Vectura teamed up to develop copycat asthma drug Advair but their shares have suffered following a dispute with the US Food and Drug Administration for approval of the product. Hikma�s extensive operations in the Middle East and North Africa could also be of interest to Stada, with Mr Albrecht highlighting the region as another of the areas targeted for future expansion. Some analysts sounded a note of caution on a swoop for Hikma, arguing that its family backers may be reluctant to sell on the cheap. Its �2.2bn valuation would also make a move by �4.8bn-valued Stada more of a merger of equals. Recently relegated out of the FTSE 250, Vectura�s valuation has halved to �500m in the last year and the company has numerous own brand developments in the pipeline. Stada is backed by private equity mammoths Bain Capital and Cinven and has activist investor Elliott Management among its other top shareholders. Elliott forced the buy-out firms to lift their offer for control of Stada but still holds a 3.6pc stake worth �170m. Despite selling down its stake, the Paul Singer-led hedge fund said last September it still has �strategic objectives� to push at Stada, which has outlined ambitions to build its Britannia unit, a UK-based division developing products to treat Parkinson�s disease.

If nothing this seems to at least quote a genuine source and gives a more realistic scenario than the GSK one. it should help encourage the shorts to run for the hills over the next couple of days.

Yes, more than likley short closing! Total short reduced to 3.1% yesterday. Was 3.55% a couple of weeks ago, fell to just under 3% which caused the last peak in the sp to just above 82p. Went up again to 3.2% including two new shorts not seen before at the start of last week which was the probable cause of the latest slip back.

If the sp shows consolidation and breaks through the 85p resistance level early doors on Monday, then next weeks two trading days leading up to Tuesdays close could prove very interesting and see shorts getting squeaky bums and some good acceleration to a higher level. Then much will depend on Hikma who report Wednesday 14th.

... now broken!

Good comments Bottmzup, agree with all of that. As far as t/o issues are concerned, I doubt any of VEC's generic type peers would be interested simply because it would be hugely difficult in view of the multiple partnerships it has with most of them. As VEC's main claim to fame is its IP for delivery devices which it can leverage with those larger generic type partners... there is no benefit in GSK being even remotely interested. When that Telegraph t/o rumour was floated it was quite telling that the sp hardly moved! No-one of any serious note in the industry believed It, the sp certainly didn't rocket up as would have been the case if there had of been any truth in it! At most it stabilised the sp for a couple of weeks and in my view it was a plant by the instigator the bots! So IF there's any t/o in the offing its more likely to come from private equity sources or one of the American hedge funds with loads of free dosh. Only my opinion! If that is in fact the case, then its likely that whoever is responsible for the bots has been betting that the generic will get another refusal and the sp has indeed been subjected to a softening up process. In the event of another refusal they could then come in with what would be perceived as a 'get of jail' rescue act for shareholders... but at a much lower cost than otherwise will be the case if the generic gets the go ahead. Maybe well worth the bet! As far as the GSK litigation issue is concerned... the IP legacy royalty payments are capped at a MAX of �13 million per year. They stopped July 2016. If VEC win in December then those payments will be backdated. We are talking probably less than two years backdated payments which will go straight to VEC's bottom line. �26 million MAXIMUM... to July 19... not guaranteed, although obviously better than a kick up the proverbial and payments will then continue to 2021 when the patents expire anyway. Well worth fighting for, but If they lose... then In the general scheme of things... and considering �15 million has just seemingly been disposed of in share buy backs.. (down the pan!)... imo not such a big deal. GLA :) I think it's just the shorters betting that the Advair generic won't get off the ground in the states.

Bottmzup... I'm certainly no expert and it's a complex subject, there are many different technical instruments and reasons for trading... but in the simplest of cases bot trades are algo (algorithms) use what could be described as very sophisticated artificial intelligence to instigate trades and can commonly be used as a way of executing a very large order which would be impossible to do in normal circumstances. Using completely automated, pre-programmed computerised trading instructions which negates any requirement for the usual forms of manual input those shares can slowly be disposed of. Say you want to get rid of 60 million shares! A manager can do that by algo trading in thousands of small slices over a long period of time. Using bots to control a sp and keep it to a pre-determined level is what seems to be happening here... what is unknown is WHY? There is no need to need for anyone using this method to constantly watch the stock, sp levels are being monitored and trades are being auto executed at pre-programmed sp levels which is acting as a constant drag and stopping the sp from breaking free to normal trading levels. The only saving grace is that sooner or later whoever is responsible will disappear... the bot trading will end and normal service wil resume!

Mulder... yes the drop to this level is unwarranted, even allowing for the last FDA refusal and also the GSK litigation case due at the end of this year, a drop to this level is not justifiable on the fundamentals. What has driven it down and so far is seemingly intent on keeping it down... is whoever is launching many thousands of small bot trades. It does on the face of it seem to point to the sp being softened up for a t/o bid. However it's unlikely that is the case imo... because Hikma Is going through exactly the same very unwarranted drop on their sp and suffering every bit as much as VEC. IMO it's simply the shorts doing what shorts do... making money out the uncertainty of the generic being a viable proposition by playing the sp big time in both companies on a daily basis. If the generic dispute resolves in favour of HIK/VEC... the sp should recover to normal levels based on the financial fundamentals. HIK report next week on the 14th and VEC report the following week. Both are in their closed periods till then and unable to comment but one or the other will then be able to issue statements that should make things more transparent.

MrBB... I sure they would too! The VEC Intraday sp seems more volatile in the aftermath of the buy back completion, many small bot trades have disappeared... and although still in evidence today the sp has risen by more in the last couple of days of trading and since the buy back completed by more than its been pulled back... it could well rise by incrementally rather more the closer we get to the 14th if the shorts get squeaky bums!

VEC's inhaler as used for the Advair generic had no problems with substitutability/replacement for GSK's Advair Discus inhaler. FDA's complaint is reportedly about the failure of Hikma to meet the last clinical trial's end point. That has been referred by Hikma... to the Complaints Resolution Committee who are expected to issue the results of their deliberations this quarter. That isn't a failure of VEC's 'management'. GSK are trying to get out of their commitments to pay legacy royalties till the expiry date of 2021 for the Elipta range of products. VEC are contesting that in the high court and the case is scheduled to be heard in December this year. VEC are in their closed period and unless they have some specific and previously undisclosed information as to why the sp is under sustained attack by the bears... they are forbidden to make any comment to the market. If they DO have any specific information they are obliged to disclose it under the corporate governance rules as soon as it comes into their possession, despite being in a closed period. The fact that they haven't means the sp is being driven by normal market forces! That can include thousands of bot trades as has has been in evidence for the last few weeks... driven by an unknown operator for reasons which are also unknown... but which have negated the obviously hoped for effects of the share buy back scheme. If the complaints commitee rule in favour of Hikma the shorts will have to run to cover, as there are around 25million of the stock being shorted, that will not be so easy to do... then we might see a different picture! It's possible that nearer we get to results day... that the more the shorters will try to slowly close some... to avoid being caught in the rush for the exit!

Bots disappearing and shorts closing... totals now fallen from 3.55 to under 3%!

Global Assets and JPMorgan have closed their shorts!

Two months ago, Ten Lifestyle Group (TENG) floated on AIM at 134p. The shares are now around 150p They offer privileged access to top holiday spots and restaurants. Helping the world�s wealthy to spend their money is nothing new and it was realised early on that the business would grow much faster if it focused on corporate clients rather than individuals. Its customers include top banks in the UK, America, Australia, Brazil, China, Japan and Switzerland � names such as Barclays and Coutts in Britain or Citi in the US. These banks take out three or five-year contracts, paying an annual fee so that their top customers can access Ten�s services. The company also works with luxury brands, such as Maserati or Cartier, again offering these firms� top customers access to Ten services. Ten�s customers include top banks in the UK, America, Australia, Brazil, China, Japan and Switzerland Ten has just under 50 corporate clients but its members � the people who use its services � run into hundreds of thousands annually. Its hoped to take annual users into the tens of millions and that is well on the way � with lucrative new contracts expected within the next few months. Large contracts can total more than �2 million a year and there are several hundred individual subscribers too, paying more than �1,000 a year. A new one has just recently been announced! Similar to AIR's Jet Card scheme, the subscription model is a crucial point of difference. Many travel agents or booking operators make money from commissions paid by airlines, restaurants, hotels and suchlike. The vast majority of its revenues are generated from annual subscriptions so it will try to offer customers the best tickets, seats and tables available, rather than the ones where it can make the most commission. That means banks and luxury brands can be confident that Ten is working in their clients� best interests and end users know that Ten is a business they can trust. It is also growing fast.

... on the face of it, why the completion of the buy back scheme... if taken in isolation... should make a great deal of difference to the sp level. �15 million quids worth of shares bought back since last November has only been a small drop in the ocean! At this level it would seem that another refusal for the generic is pretty much priced in and that is the reason for it... although market sentiment and despondency in the event of another refusal will no doubt bring in a knee jerk lower level for a while. Equally the removal of the uncertainty might then see the sp spring back up to around the 100p book value mark.

Compass007, think you right, not a mistake. What we don't know is the target date the broker is projecting this level could be reached. There was a VERY strong upward trend even before the share split... something that contributed to the decision to have the split in the first place! Given the very successful last 12 months across the whole company since then in a year on which there ware no special 'worldly' sporting events... and given THIS year encompasses two huge sporting events... a target somewhere near double the current sp level could possibly be seen over the next 12 months. We will obviously get a better indication in April when they issue guidance for 2018. As you say... steady as she goes!

Normally I would think this is a typo but the mere fact that the broker has taken the step of publishing another note so soon after last Fridays issue probably mitigates away from the PT being a mistake... however unlikely! Who knows... maybe last Fridays note was a mistake (although 165p IS in line with broker consensus) and this is a follow up correction :) Chance would be a fine thing if the sp gets to anything like the 300p level anytime soon tho! It wouldn't surprise me if we get yet another (lower) correction tomorrow!

Friday, February 23, 2018 - 08:00 Liberum Capital today upgrades its investment rating on Air Partner Plc (LON:AIR) to buy (from hold) and raised its price target to 165p (from 150p). Broker Forecast - Liberum Capital issues a broker note on Air Partner Plc Wednesday 28 February, 2018 - 12:00 Liberum Capital today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Air Partner Plc (LON:AIR) and set its price target at 300p. Story provided by StockMarketWire.com

As of 20th Feb 3.55% of shares are shorted and there are five main organisations listed... thats according to ShortTracker. I make that equating to 25-30 million shares, give or take! The shorts are mainly taking advantage of the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the generic for Advair (IMO) although the GSK litigation case (not due to be heard till December) will be a another factor. The FDA's last refusal/adjudication narrative stated they disagreed that the last clinical trail met its primary end point. That decision was referred to the Complaints Resolution Commitee by Hikma. The committee is supposed to issue the results of its deliberations sometime during the 1st quarter... but I wouldn't bet on there not being any delays! IF... the commitee uphold the FDA's ruling then its most likely that the only way forward will be to undertake another trial... that would put back any launch of the generic back for at least another couple of years... HIK/VEC could decide that the 'boat has left port' and it's no longer worth pursuing. Easy therefore IMO... to understand the case for shorting. BUT... if the shorts have to run to cover if the decision goes directly against them or recommends an easy way out of the impass... 25-30 million shares will not be that easy to acquire.... the rush for the exit could cause the sp to rocket up in the immediate aftermath! With the ending of the buy back scheme the sp could easily rise up to 'non rigged' level' because whoever has been dumping will know that a virtually guaranteed buyer is now out of the game and no longer around to do some hoovering up!

The 67,872,0000 shares refered to is the maximum they can buy under the annual authority granted to them by their shareholders. It's quite normal for a companies BOD to include an item on their AGM agenda (s) to seek authority from their shareholders to buy back their own shares if they ever decided that's what they want to do. It's usually an authority that is sought and renewed every year at AGM's by the BOD and a maximum they are allowed to buy is formally stated. In this case the BOD have decided to spend a maximum of �15 million to buy back shares under their existing authority to do so and they have simply restated what the maximum number of shares they are able to buy under the authority granted to them. They could have decided to spend more and tried for the maximum number of shares if they wanted too!) The company have no imput on what prices their agents (in this case it's Numis) actually buy at.

Looks to be a typo in Edison's narrative. (FY18 should read FY17)