Member Info for Lindon

Oops... 'GKN' saga!

Yes, your probably correct seeing how the sp suddenly took off and then dropped back to its post results recovery position immediately after that RNS. At least things seem to have calmed down now, although it still looks like there a couple of hedge funds walking it up and down around the 80p mark without building a position to warrant the releases of a RNS... several millions of shares constantly being bought and sold with a penny profit makes for lots of pennies! Most of it seems to happen after the American market has opened... but every sale is also a buy and someone is buying up these shares and with the story about hedge funds being responsible for the GSK buy out saga... it just shows what can possibly happen in the background. Getting away from all the speculation and knee jerks though... there should be some regular news flow from several directions this year ... news of progress on the new Open Inhaled Close device partnership which could happen anytime soon... even on its own could light the blue touch paper under the sp. Quarterly updates on the in market performance of Flutiform and Ultibro need to show that sales are continuing to grow. Also expected to come this year are: Q3 Phase 2 results for VR647 US paediatric programme Q3 Ablynx Phase 2b results and potential additional Phase 3 device licensing Q4 Phase 3 results for VR475 EU adult asthma programme. (This could have a VERY significant effect on the sp) Q4 update on GSK Ellipta portfolio UK litigation... IMO if VEC win the UK case later this year it would be a massive bonus and set the marker for next years planned USA proceedings... they would stand a good chance of being abandoned by GSK ... the sp would be immediately be back above 150p and GSK will defiantly be in the frame for a buy out.

IMM has recently reported on the Phase 3 trial outcomes for its Lupus treatment which is the only game it has in town... the results show its not much better than placebo and it failed to meet its expected 'end point' .... it DOES seem to have limited benefit and could possibly eventually be launched on the market as a routine option... but that's a few years away now and it's not the 'all singing and dancing' revolutionary treatment that was hoped for... and now it's brokers are touting it around in the hope that someone will bail it out! Forget it!

just to be absoluty clear is ALL about next generation Ellipta... NOT as the Telegraph and others would have you believe... Advair! The VEC results show it is all about a generic Ellipta delivery device... NOT Advair! Any patent protection on the delivery device they use expires in 2019!! Pretty much all the rest of the IP is legacy VEC/SKP and THAT is why GSK are challenging the VEC IP GSK will have major problems if their next generation respiratory portfolio suddenly comes under immediate generic attack!

Hi Aidan. IMO slides 18-20 from the recent results presentation make things rather clear. That is where you need to start to fully appreciate the implications of what is going on in the background. The impending litigation issue is massive for GSK as the incumbent and if VEC lose they can say goodbye to becoming a major player. If VEC win there are only two things GSK can do.... either come to an agreement to share the spoils in return for VEC NOT bringing in generic competiton for the Ellipta range or remove VEC from the equation by buying them out! A directly substitutable AB-rated generic drug device for the Ellipta series is massive. VEC are also working on generic versions of the three biggest respiratory sellers in the US space as well, even though VR315 (Advair) is delayed. The barriers to entry for generic delivery technologies are getting higher, with recent FDA moves making that much clear and is reiterated in the presentation. On Advair, Hikma, Mylan and Sandoz have all run foul of the new definitions of bio-equivalence and delivery equivalence. The only short term winner there is GSK. However, the info from those slides now being made public... puts GSK in a serious position. As VEC said... partnership discussions are already taking place... and given the huge stakes that could even be with the huge tier one Pharma companies! If VEC succeed with the generic device then they will have generic versions of the Ellipta series and, likely, Advair to US market in 2020. Those 6 products make up a huge chunk of GSK respiratory revenues. The US sales alone for those 6 products is expected to be around $6Bn by 2023. Worldwide projections are mindboggling! The others might get generic Advair to market but VEC are the only ones who might get generic Ellipta to market in the next 7-10 years because they are the ONLY company that has the delivery device technology already in play! VEC sp is (IMO) depressed due to market uncertainty on how all this is going to pan out. IMO GSK will try to wait till these issues are sorted in the high court with fingers crossed that no-one else make a bid in the meantime... there is no point in themselves making a bid for VEC until the case is heard... because they could win... and all the generic competition problems go away for them! IMO they will only enter the fray if someone else DOES make a bid... because (as the incumbent) it's their market lose and there is no way they can let a projected $6 billion a year escape from them! I think it unlikely that any of the usual suspects will bid because they also will want to wait on the litigation results and will realise GSK will fight tooth and nail to protect their potential future marketts... and ain't gonna sit back and let them win! This isn't for the 'faint hearted' If it all falls apart for VEC in court... best look for somewhere else to put ya dosh... in my opinion! GLA.

Hi Aidan. IMO slides 18-20 from the recent results presentation make things rather clear. That is where you need to start to fully appreciate the implications of what is going on in the background. The impending litigation issue is massive for GSK as the incumbent and if VEC lose they can say goodbye to becoming a major player. If VEC win there are only two things GSK can do.... either come to an agreement to share the spoils in return for VEC NOT bringing in generic competiton for the Ellipta range or remove VEC from the equation by buying them out! A directly substitutable AB-rated generic drug device for the Ellipta series is massive. VEC are also working on generic versions of the three biggest respiratory sellers in the US space as well, even though VR315 (Advair) is delayed. The barriers to entry for generic delivery technologies are getting higher, with recent FDA moves making that much clear and is reiterated in the presentation. On Advair, Hikma, Mylan and Sandoz have all run foul of the new definitions of bio-equivalence and delivery equivalence. The only short term winner there is GSK. However, the info from those slides now being made public... puts GSK in a serious position. As VEC said... partnership discussions are already taking place... and given the huge stakes that could even be with the huge tier one Pharma companies! If VEC succeed with the generic device then they will have generic versions of the Ellipta series and, likely, Advair to US market in 2020. Those 6 products make up a huge chunk of GSK respiratory revenues. The US sales alone for those 6 products is expected to be around $6Bn by 2023. Worldwide projections are mindboggling! The others might get generic Advair to market but VEC are the only ones who might get generic Ellipta to market in the next 7-10 years because they are the ONLY company that has the delivery device technology already in play! VEC sp is (IMO) depressed due to market uncertainty on how all this is going to pan out. IMO GSK will try to wait till these issues are sorted in the high court with fingers crossed that no-one else make a bid in the meantime... there is no point in themselves making a bid for VEC until the case is heard... because they could win... and all the generic competition problems go away for them! IMO they will only enter the fray if someone else DOES make a bid... because (as the incumbent) it's their market lose and there is no way they can let a projected $6 billion a year escape from them! I think it unlikely that any of the usual suspects will bid because they also will want to wait on the litigation results and will realise GSK will fight tooth and nail to protect their potential future marketts... and ain't gonna sit back and let them win! This isn't for the 'faint hearted' If it all falls apart for VEC in court... best look for somewhere lose to put ya dosh... in my opinion!

The recent rise was obviously due to the speculation in the media about interest and the possibility of a bid being made for the company... now that has been refuted the sp has dropped back. IMO no one will bid for VEC until VEC's IP issues with GSK are settled in court... but the possibility of someone from outside and remote the usual generic competitors cannot be discounted. VEC lives and dies by virtue of its technology and relies on the IP patents that they hope protects that technology. If the judge decides in favour of GSK then the sp will be back in the sixties, THAT is why the sp will remain 'depressed' for the time being and below perceived 'book value' IF t/o speculation is taken out of the equasion. IMO there is next to zero possibility of a t/o until VEC's claim for IP is decided in court. If VEC lose its doubtful anyone would want it but could get it for around 100p if they did! Worth waiting for perhaps!? Make no mistake, this is NOT about Advair... that is only worth a max of 20p per share and probably nearer 15p per share... a pretty minor issue... this is about the future of GSK's Ellipta next generation range of products WHICH includes Advair replacement... and their potential for $6 billion per year earnings from 2020 onwards IF no generic option is introduced from VEC! The stakes in the upcoming court case later this year are huge! To reiterate: In July 2016, Vectura announced that it had initiated legal proceedings against GSK in the US following GSK's decision not to extend the term of its legacy agreement with Vectura beyond 31 July 2016, by licensing additional patent families. A jury trial originally scheduled for December 2018 has recently been rescheduled by the court and is now likely to occur in Q2 2019. Following initiation of the US action, GSK commenced an action in the UK challenging the equivalent UK patents and Vectura has counter sued for infringement. The outcome of this action is currently expected in Q4 2018. A cumulative total of GBP1.9 million of expenses have been incurred in respect of this litigation, recorded as an exceptional item to the end of 2017. B-T-W... results for 2017 support an SP of around 70p based on US 2018 industry multiples of EV to EBITDA. So not doing so bad!

RNS Number : 9524L Sosei Group Corporation 24 April 2018 Statement re Vectura Group plc Sosei Group Corporation ("Sosei") notes the recent press speculation regarding a possible offer for Vectura Group plc ("Vectura"). Sosei confirms that it does not intend to make an offer for Vectura. As a result of this announcement, Sosei will, except with the consent of the UK Panel on Takeovers and Mergers (the "Panel"), be bound by the restrictions contained in Rule 2.8 of the C

Yer, agreed Rory. Its had a good uptick since the 70p mark and now a combination of the CFO making what is a great career move for him at 53 yrs old... to hell of a larger and much more expensive private company, plus Novartis posting some poor quarterly sales for their Ultibro and Seebri inhalers at the back end of last week (sales were about $4m below market expectations, not TOO bad but not great either!) plus a couple of majors still on selling manoeuvres. PLUS surprise, surprise NO bid forthcoming despite all the moves that are happening elsewhere in the Pharma sector a present... its not surprising the sp is riding a roller coaster at the mo!

And there we have it! Algert Global have been busy closing some big short positions, reducing total VEC stock shorted from 3.3% to 2.68%. More importantly... looking strong around 104p bid price near the close and with all round good volumes today!

And there we have it! Algert Global have been busy closing some big short positions, reducing total VEC stock shorted from 3.3% to 2.68%. More importantly... looking strong around 104p bid price near the close with all round good volumes today!

Why have we given up so much today? There were truly massivly inflated trading volumes yesterday and no-one knows why. IMO 'Twas either someone making a huge aquisition in which case we will probably learn about it via a RNS notification within the next couple of days... or elsei it was some huge short positions being closed in which case that will appear on ShortTracker in a couple of days. Whatever the case the sp got inflated in the excitement. Today normal levels have resumed and there has been a corresponding resumption to near the prior sp level. Also today two of the big boys have reduced by a relatively inconsequential amount but triggered RNS due to % benchmark rules. Yesterday was just a blip imo. Hopefully the sp will gradually resume the prior steady slow rise that was occurring prior to that 'blip'! There are no real signs yet that any bid will happen anytime soon (although yesterday's rise would have increased any thoughts that it might and added impetus to the uptick!) and I also doubt the two that have slightly reduced thier holding today would have done so if the city thought there was any real prospect of a bid coming in just yet! That sentiment would also obviously be a 'downer' and be adding to part of the 'downtick' that occurring at the moment! Just shows what a huge part 'sentiment' rather than 'fundamentals' and 'reality' has on a share price! GLA.

April12, 2018 (LON:VEC) Rating Reaffirmed Vectura Group PLC (LON:VEC) had their share rating of ;Overweight issued by research analysts at JP Morgan Cazenove, who now has a GBX 180.00 target price on the 599.57 million GBP market cap company or a 85.95 % upside potential.

At the time of his appointment in 2014 Mark Briffa said: "After a thorough search process we are very pleased to welcome Neil to the Board on a permanent basis. Neil's aviation experience, combined with years at Deloitte and working for listed companies provides him with a strong background to help add significant value to Air Partner."

At the time of his appointment in 2014 Mark Briffa said: "After a thorough search process we are very pleased to welcome Neil to the Board on a permanent basis. Neil's aviation experience, combined with years at Deloitte and working for listed companies provides him with a strong background to help add significant value to Air Partner."

Well said pimval. And if folk do some research on the historical RNS releases on what happened back in 2011 and tie those in with what's happened now... a general picture starts to emerge that this story could be an on-going chapter of what happened in the way of 'accounting errors' way back then! Now the cash pile seems to have been reduced by about �2 million since the intrims last year and within in a few days the fallout which was said to be a max of �3.3 million is now gone up to �4 million. An ambiguous RNS that was supposed to calm and clarify the situation and bribe shareholders with a highly unusual dividend statement in advance of the results was released only this week... and today they have had to release another RNS with the news that the CFO who was only appointed in 2014 has had his resignation accepted slap bang in the middle of this investigation! Not good!

Hopefully it will and great if it does, but It's gonna have to get to around 115p to go back above the 400 mark in the all share index to qualify.

Yes David... and there are also a few other things which don't add up. At the interim they said cash amounted to �10.6 million. Now they say it amounts to only �8.6 million. That is quite a considerable reduction! Why? They are claiming "This is a non-cash item and has no bearing on the Company's cash balances"! Really? I also note 9p EPS forecast for this year.... and 10p the following year which is when they are saying this will be accounted for! This might be good for short term traders willing to take on the risk and good luck to them, but my trust has gone... I'm staying out it now.

There has been an general recover in sentiment in the Pharma sector, that, coupled with Pacira getting their long sought after label extension... which should result in the $32 million milestone payment being paid sometime in the near/medium future... considerable helps sentiment for VEC. Also noticeable that whoever has been dumping huge volumes of shares below the daily closing bid price, seems to have taken a rest! More than anything that should help buyers to have the confidence... AND for that confidence to slowly take root... that the sp is not going to be continually undermined at the end of each day.

If the directors have confidence in what they say and they consider future business volumes will recover from this debacle and put their OWN money where their mouths are... then I'll reconsider buying back in but otherwise I'm staying out. They have even more lucrative contracts than most companies this size and we have seen shareholders being bought off with the promise of a nice dividend payment before... together with the cost of this, which probably/hopefully includes the investigation 'hiring costs'... is being pushed out a year, I would like to see this completely resolved and over and done with... in THIS financial year.... I remain very suspicious! There remains the possibility of criminal acts and more yet to be disclosed. High net worth individuals are going to be remain VERY unsure about depositing their money with this company because the CEO has failed imo... and for me has to go if confidence and TRUST is to be regained. The sp WAS very much ahead of the game before this based on reputation, growth and sensible acquisitions... and I cannot see the damage being recovered to anywhere near the 150p levels for at least another two years unless the directors PROVE the company is worth it with their own dosh!