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Bushveld Minerals Limited (AIM:BMN, OTC:BSHVF)* – 6.83p, Mkt cap £86m – Bushveld offers good entry into development of mini-grid and batter storage markets
BUY – Valuation 31p

The more we rely on wind and solar for our grid and local energy supply, the more we need to install grid-scale and local battery storage.
The UK and US governments are still far away from commissioning new nuclear, even with a new political will to sign off on these projects.
Worse still, new nukes are needed to replace the many nuclear power stations that are due for decommissioning.
While nuclear is good for carbon-free baseload power wind looks cheaper per KWh depending on how you calculate the costs.
The problem is that wind power needs to be combined with sufficient grid-scale battery backup for days when the turbines are becalmed.
We have seen many different solutions for energy storage from old-school water pumping to 25t concrete blocks lifted by a crane to chemical storage devices.
Our money is still on Vanadium Redox Batteries for grid-scale storage as if offers a relatively clean, reliable and near-maintenance free solution.
Working with Bushveld Minerals and Bushveld Energy has given us an insight into the technical issues which have confronted VRFB development and deployment.
The Bushveld team have worked through these practical issues and are ready to build their new solar ‘mini grid’ to be supported with a VRFB battery instillation.
Proving the ‘mini grid’ should be a major advance in South Africa which is suffering increasing ‘loadshedding’ affecting industry and consumers alike.
Not only should the mini grid prove to be more reliable than the South African grid but it could also prove to be cost effective.
We see Bushveld Energy and its affiliates as developing into substantial businesses feeding not just the South African market.
Conclusion: While lithium-ion batteries are being installed for ‘rapid-response’ grid support in the US and UK, VRFB batteries offer a compelling case for longer term storage. Bushveld currently offers investors a good entry into the VRFB market through the development of Bushveld Energy which has the potential to become a substantial provider of VRFB systems and electrolyte.

*SP Angel act as nomad and broker to Bushveld

@loudspeaker, “don't believe the hype”. No worries … I don’t and never have, about anything! That includes your Twitter Fastmarkets contact. As stated, spot prices, no-matter from Pittsburg, Rotterdam or anywhere else may or may not be correct, but no reason to think they aren’t

However spot prices are, imo, irrelevant, the only price that matters, or should matter to investors, is BMN’s reported received average price received from their agents.

I think that’s currently around the $40 -41 per kg mark?

The fact that some of the other products they produce might carry higher margins is good obviously, but those niche products, are an extra, and imo, doesn’t mean the market should view the income from the bulk of the business being irrelevant as a “profit margin yardstick”.

@Uksteveg, yep, there you go, depending on what you want to believe, anywhere between $40-41 perks as per your link …and up to $75 per kg.as per the much touted Twitter link.

Who knows, the investors who “are sure” the price we get is $70-75kg because the ‘well researched’ say so, might even be correct. Unlike their forecasts of ‘nailed on’ success for the Eskom contracts.

I prefer to be believe BMN’s ‘average price achieved’ statements … which are more in line with the link you’ve kindly provided. That way you don’t get TOO involved in inflated upcoming quarterly expectations, and therefore not disappointed.when they have little impact (as per normal) on the sp.

But it leaves room for personal expectations to be beaten if the inflated reports prove to be correct, That’s what I hope for, but will only believe it when I see it.

The US price depends on who you choose to believe, but better,imo, to ignore all the various reports, inflated or otherwise … and just accept what BMN report as the average price they’ve achieved yr to date. That’s the only one that counts regardless of trolls or hypers.

V205 Vanadium Pentoxide Flake 98% USD / lb

Europe : US$9.00/lb ?(-1.10%)

??Ferro Vanadium 80% USD / kg

China : US$39.00/kg (0.00%)

Europe : US$36.25/kg (0.00%)

WWW.VANADIUMPRICE.COM

A report by Solidarity Research Institute (SRI) is encouraging the private sector to step up as loadshedding continues and eventually Eskom will have to close down all its coal-fired plants.

SRI has published a report calling on small power producers to apply in their hundreds for generation permits. According to the trade union, the large-scale entry of small power producers into power generation is needed to resolve the country’s power crisis.

SRI Chief Executive Dr Dirk Hermann said: “Jobs and income are being destroyed on a large scale as a result of the power crisis. The biggest act of job protection we can undertake right now is to do everything possible to feed power into the system.”

Hermann said the regulations for large-scale private power generation have been amended, giving effect to President Cyril Ramaphosa’s announcement that up to 100MW can be generated with a NERSA permit, without needing a licence.

He noted that Solidarity will submit a parliamentary petition to get any possible obstacles or barriers out of the way. Due to a major lack of political will there is, however, still uncertainty among entrepreneurs and power producers, said the SRI CE.

“If the private sector can seize the opportunity it could bring about a power revolution. We call on developers, shopping malls, big companies, resident associations, entrepreneurs, major farmers and others to submit applications for the generation, distribution and sale of power. It is the right thing for the country, and it offers commercial opportunities.

“The new electricity sector can create thousands of new jobs directly and millions indirectly,” Hermann explained.

The call comes in the wake of a report by the Solidarity Research Institute (SRI) which shows that from now until 2035 South Africa will have to generate almost as much power coming from the private sector as what the entire Eskom is producing at the moment.
According to Connie Mulder, Head of the Solidarity Research Institute, Phase 6 of load shedding will become the norm and if the current trend continues more extreme phases will be part of our future.

Solidarity suggests:
Decentralise generation as quickly as possible;
Abandon the build limits on REIPPP’s and scrap the RMIPPPP programme in its entirety. Also scrap all unnecessary regulation that keep investors out of this market (BEE requirements, procurement requirements, etc); and
Ramp up training in renewable energy and battery storage technology.

https://www.esi-africa.com/industry-sectors/research-and-development/encouraging-the-private-sector-to-solve-south-africas-energy-crisis/

Whose pointing fingers, apart from you? Lost opportunity in the last 18 months to do what … raise another $100 million to increase their capacity on top of the $30 million the consortium have raised ? Where and who from?
Do you mean that if the court case hadn’t got in the way, BE would have been carved off by now, vastly increased funding would have been in place … and manufacturing capacity increased in time to have been involved in the large scale sites?. I don’t think so.

Garnet may have delayed a fair bit of advancement in some areas, but nothing that would have made any difference to the planned longer term150MW battery manufacturing capacity.

“But the de-reg offers a much better fit the small/medium systems without state oversight”

Absolutely agree. And it’s obviously not just large Eskom projects that they are not yet in a position to service. If they can’t win on their home ground despite all the supposed firmly nailed on advantages they had behind them, then It applies to any other large BESS projects wherever they are around the globe.

But through the IES/BE joint leasing venture, Bushveld are becoming positioned to supply V and/or Electrolyte to any larger scale BESS contracts that the IES/ Siemens-Gamesa tie up might come up with, wherever they might be located.

As Bushveld are part of a consortium that have invested £30 million to expand CellCube’s manufacturing capacity to 30MW … I don’t agree that that they have any intention of loosening their CellCube ties, and I’ve seen no suggestion that they would want to do that.

All indications are the opposite is true and BE/CellCube will come together via the new carve off to form the other half of the vertically integration plans that are hoped to provide increased funding for further increasing battery manufacturing capacity (and possibly assembly in SA fit the local market) … that will eventually lead the way to winning larger BESS contracts … wherever around the globe they are planned.

Yep, the only thing is, they’re obviously are NOT yet positioned to take advantage of any Eskom projects, despite all the well hyped close relationships with the IDC, the president of the SA Government … and being able to satisfy most of the other SA benification advantages such as Labour and local resources, that was all supposed to give us a massive head start over all other BESS options … or indeed any other large scale BESS projects that are being planned around the world.

The main reason for that is, as it always has been imo. the lack of Battery manufacturing capacity in the western world. Electrolyte supply is being sorted, but now battery manufacturing on a scale that’s needed to compete with all the other BESS solutions is the next big issue that needs to be resolved.
Hopefully, now we have RBC Capital Markets on board, who are a ‘proper’ tier 1 broker … and the plans to carve off BE will bring in energy focused institutional investment will come to fruition. That should provide the funding needed to rapidly increase CellCube’s battery manufacturing to at least be in the 150-200MW range and be the last building block that finally positions them to have a chance of competing for some of the larger BESS projects. In the meantime, the hybrid mini- grid markets, which we CAN compete in, should soon start to rapidly explode!

Kibo Energy PLC (Incorporated in Ireland)
(Registration Number: 451931)
(External registration number: 2011/007371/10)
Share code on the JSE Limited: KBO
Share code on the AIM: KIBO
ISIN: IE00B97C0C31
("Kibo" or "the Company")


Dated: 07 July 2022


Kibo Energy PLC ('Kibo' or the 'Company')


Kibo Reaches Critical Strategic Milestone in CellCube Framework Agreement towards Implementation of Long Duration Energy Storage Solutions in Southern Africa


Kibo Energy PLC (AIM: KIBO; AltX: KBO), the renewable energy focused development company, is pleased to announce that it has successfully achieved its first major Framework Agreement ('FA') target, by placing the first commitment, to purchase the first two proof of concept ('POC') projects, as announced in the Company's RNS dated 17 May 2022.


These projects relate to its signed strategic five-year FA with CellCube to deploy long-duration energy storage in Southern Africa. The FA envisages the deployment of c.1 Gigawatt of Long Duration Energy Storage in Southern Africa over the next five years. Kibo placed the commitment to purchase via its 51%-owned subsidiary National Broadband Solutions ('NBS'), for two (2) CellCube FB 250 - 1000 Vanadium Redox Flow Batteries as part of its initial stage of the FA.


Louis Coetzee, CEO at Kibo Energy, says: "We are very pleased with this major next step forward in the fast track roll out of the Company's renewable / clean energy strategy. The Company is at the moment completely focused on getting the various projects in its current portfolio past financial close and into production within the next 18 months as previously stated. As part of this drive, the Company is focusing all its resources on operational matters and project delivery and will attend to certain non-essential corporate activities, like the previously announced planned share capital consolidation, at a later stage in the future if still deemed necessary at such a time.


We look forward to updating the market on further progress and developments of the various exciting projects currently under development."

**ENDS**

@RazorShultz, Knuttie has been consistent in his opinions about Eskom. He’s always been clear about his reservations on that subject. Also just to clear, no-one has claimed that BMN were not part of the phase 1 tender bids. But if they were, it could only have been as a supplier of V to one of the bidders, IF their bid was successful. In the event none of the winners selected included VRFB tech in their bid. FM has stated it did not participate directly in the bidding process due to not have the wherewithal to stand any chance of winning. It remains to be seen if the CellCube expansion plans and battery assembly in SA proposition can be completed in time for BE to bid directly for the upcoming Phase2 round.

As I see it, and could well be wrong! the intentions are for BE to structured to become an integral part of the battery manufacturing and assembly AND lease management sides of the operation, alongside project management activities in Africa … and for BMN to be the miner, V processor and electrolyte supplier to whatever projects BE/ Enerox come up with.

@ RazorShultz, yes that’s how I see the BESS side developing and going back to your question about my faith in the mining side, imo FM’s intention is not for BELCO to be included in the carve off but to remain in his camp alongside the mine and the rest of the Bushveld Vanadium operations … as per RNS Number : 2865O
Bushveld Minerals Limited
08 February 2021

§ Progress procurement and construction of the electrolyte plant. In order to ensure closer alignment of all vanadium operating facilities, BELCO will migrate to the Bushveld Vanadium platform both operationally and in ownership.

To that end I also believe this development is a ground preparation exercise because BE is going to part of in MUST rto manoeuvres.

The prospectus is due out this month if everything has remained on track. So maybe not long to find out.

We shall see.

Just to clarify… as stated, Acacia is a private investment company, which is 100% owned by Teston Limited which is an investment company for Mr Joseroy Borromeo. Mr Borromeo owns 100% of Teston Investements Limited.

Those Bushveld Shares were beneficially held for Acacia (with Mr Borromeo as the ultimate beneficiary) by Oak Nominees Limited (Oak Nominees).

Oak Nominees was the registered holder of those Bushveld shares.

A few years ago ‘Oak Nominees’ issued a TR1 to the effect that those holdings were transferred to Orange Trust ( possibly for beneficial tax reasons perhaps,??) all roads do seem to lead to an extraordinary and very wealthy businessman … Mr Jose Roy Hernandez Borromeo, long standing major Bushveld Minerals shareholder.

@ brasi, yes. I think Borromeo and his investment vehicle (arcacia resources) is the main ‘mover and shaker’ behind all the plans.

Also remember that he was touted as being one of the very wealthy and secretive group of SA. investors known nowadays as Orange Trust.

Prior to being listed as a major shareholder and founding member of BMN in his own right, his holdings were backed into Orange Trust by its forerunner Oak Trust

Acacia is a private investment company, which is 100% owned by Teston Limited which is an investment company for Mr Joseroy Borromeo. Mr Borromeo owns 100% of Teston

@ RazorShultz. Yes, 100% absolutely. But I’ve never made any secret that I’ve never been on board with the POV that all the well known delays to the ELZ plant etc. etc. etc. we’re anything to do with waiting for the Eskom to sort out their contracts. So it’s no surprise to me that we didn’t get anything. I’ve never thought we would, but hoped we might have got a contract to supply a few tonnes of V as a supplier out of it in the event no VRFB ‘s got a look in. Don’t know if any VRFB’s oriented concerns even issued a bid.

In my view the whole of our battery side of our operation has always been firmly pointed in the direction of the soon to take off African Hybrid mini- grid market. It’s my belief that the CellCube expansion and the ELZ plant have been timed to coincide with the freeing of the government constraints to the hybrid, renewable energy/BESS oriented mini- grid market which will be enormous.

That is the direction where I’ve always seen our future lies. I actually think it’s towards that end that further investment in increasing CellCube’s manufacturing capacity is really aimed at. The whole African continent of over 50 countries are going in the same hybrid mini- grid direction as S.A.
As Ive said before … who needs the rest of the world when you’ve got a huge market just about ready to take off … right on your doorstep?

Yep. That’s the one. It’s a huge site and he did it in the timescale promised. No thermal runaway probs for that one.

But as I said no point or benefit to be gained in banging on about the drawbacks of the competition, until we can install batteries in such huge numbers and prove that we ourselves are in a position to call ourselves, ‘competition’.

Nope, the Oz one that caught fire last year whilst being commissioned was an entirely different BESS project to the one I referred too which was built, commissioned and has been in use now for several years … It’s actually irrelevant to run down the competition and complain about its drawbacks, as FM has previously stated, it’s pointless to complain about the occasional fires that arise… because the Lithium industry can at least build the batteries in huge numbers required and have a long track record of fulfilling numerous major contracts, the whole world over … projects that are currently way beyond the scope of the VRFB industries abilities to service. But DYOR!

Ben, yep. As I see it the battery manufacturing side of the equation is pretty similar in its drawbacks to exactly the problems new ‘greenfield’ vanadium mining projects face. The costs are very prohibitive.

It’s only the current so-called primary V producers that can supply the worlds needs of V … due to the enormous financial constraints involved in getting new mining and processing facilities off the ground. The same cost issues face VRFB manufactures in their abilities to be able to disrupt the established Lithium battery manufacturing industry.

The costs associated with increasing battery manufacturing capacities is what’s holding the V BESS options from making serious inroads into the current lithium default options, regardless of the all the bother presumed ‘superior ‘ benefits.

VRFB’s simply cannot complete or provide the numbers of units in the timescales that the developers of large grid scale projects ask for.

The deployment times of VRFB’s constantly and consistently knock them out of the equation… as has now happened with the Eskom projects.

Imo, it could be that failure to compete on their own ground with all the benefits of having the SA gov. and the IDC on their side … has crystallised the understanding that the only way forward is split the two sides up as suggested.

Things simply cannot continue as they have if they are to have any chance of making inroads and competing with the Lithium BESS options

The Lithium industry has no such problems and can guarantee to produce batteries in copious amounts at vey short notice. As was proved a couple of years ago in Australia when the guaranteed they issued was met in full, by installing the largest BESS project, of any type, in the western world … in an incredibly short timescale.

Twitter reports claim BMN’s Frank Spencer has stated VRFB’s played no part in any of the phase 1 projects. He also hopes that the new, soon to announced Eskom Phase 2 projects may have more success.

If you listened to Mondays analyst call then you will know FM indicated that BMN did not play any part in the phase 1 tender round due to lack of capacities.

Hyosung are heavily involved with Lithium BESS (which incidentally also has an electrolyte!)…it seems their association with IES and VRFB’s is currently restricted to Korea.

The split is only an intention at this time. If it goes ahead as expected, then as a BMN shareholder, it means you will retain a financial benefit through BMN’s intention to retain a ‘significant strategic’ holding in BE … plus it is expected that all BMN existing shareholders will be allocated a number of free shares in BE, the allocation ratio TBA. You will be free to sell, reinvest back into BMN… or buy more. Yet to be announced is which exchange BE will be listed on or if this proposal will form part of the MUST rto plans.

Whatever the case, then split will allow the mining side to expand production capacities free of having to provide capex for the battery side and in turn will allow the battery side to attract outside investment/funding for its own expansion plans.

Currently there is only limited battery manufacturing capacity in the western world, that drawback is directly responsible for the absence of VRFB’s to play any part in the 8 projects that formed the current Eskom phase 1 tender round. That situ has to be corrected if VRFB’s are to play a part in any future large scale BESS projects … not just in Africa but in the whole western world!

Imo, this split is all about getting over the VRFB manufacturers failure to increase manufacturing capacities to a point where they are able to compete in larger scale projects and tender bids … all due to a lack of the huge amounts of capex that are required to enable them to compete for large grid scale projects.

Until battery manufacturing capacity issues are resolved, which requires huge amounts of capex, the near term future will be restricted to small scale BESS projects such as mini grids.

Large grid scale projects are currently far beyond the scope of the western world’s vanadium industry, including the U.K. … is why Lithium have all the major projects, sown up tight, despite all the well known fire safety issues.

If BE is made free to attract outside II investment from energy focussed funds, then capex will be able to be directed to fund Enerox/ CellCube manufacturing capacity expansion plans which are desperately needed.
There is currently no need to increase the proposed annual 8 million litres of electrolyte capacity expected from the new ELZ plant next year, until there are actually sufficient numbers of batteries in existence to pore the stuff into!