The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
@jam2 - There hasn't been any recent change in Amati's holdings in SED or POLX. We would know, as they would have to issue a TR1, as they are over the notifiable threshold in both companies. As @wetdream has already said, it's simply due to the fact that the SED and POLX share prices have fallen considerably, meaning they have consequently become a smaller % of the Amati VCT portfolio.
@mercman, don't KOD have a 39% share?
Another three trades on 24 March, each for £2M. How can these trades be taking place while the stock is suspended I wonder?
I agree @jam2morrow, that's the point I was trying to make. Polarean can't possibly hope to achieve such a lofty valuation with their existing strategy, as the sales revenue won't even begin to support it. That's exactly why a different strategy is required. In my view, there are numerous options which could result in a strategy that supported such a valuation in the near term. This might be a partnership or j/v arrangement or an outright sale of the business.
Let me outline one possible scenario, figures are approximate! Around 5,000 new MRI machines are sold globally each year, each one retailing for anywhere between $1M and $3M, depending on spec. So let's say the average machine sells for around $2M, meaning global gross sales revenues of around $10B per annum. There are four main manufacturers including Siemens, GE, Philips and Canon Medical. Let's assume for arguments sake that each manufacturer has around 25% of the market share of sales, so each company makes somewhere in the region of $2.5B per annum in global gross sales revenues from the sale of their respective MRI machines. Now, let's assume that GE buys Polarean outright including all exclusivity rights to its tech. They now offer their MRI machines for sale at the same price as before, but also throw in a free xenon hyperpolarizer machine as part of the package. These usually retail for around $400K but they are happy to throw it in for free, as they know they'll make the cost of the machine back over the course of its lifespan through the sales of gas at $40K per cylinder. Now, imagine you're working in a hospital and looking to procure a new MRI machine. All other things being equal, are you going to buy one from one of the other three main manufacturers, or are you going to buy one from GE and get a xenon hyperpolarizer thrown in for free? You're going to buy the one from GE, right? And you won't be alone! All of a sudden, GE take 50% of the market share of MRI machine sales, increasing gross sales revenues from $2.5B to $5B annually. Of course, the other three manufacturers all lose significant market share.
So if you were Siemens, GE, Philips or Canon Medical, how much would you be prepared to pay to make sure that you were the one that could increase gross sales from $2.5B to $5B and not be one of the three that sees a significant slump in sales? More than £250M? Of course you would. Let the bidding war begin!
GE look like the obvious partner to take this tech forward. Alternatively, the most suitable purchaser of Polarean. I can think of a number of other potential suitors, but GE jump out as the most likely. If the BOD aren't already in discussions along these lines, then they really ought to be. If they're not, then I think it's time the BOD had a reality check and got someone like UBS in to advise and to run a FSP. I'm sure we'd have more than one interested bidder and it's difficult to see how a sale would't generate a winning bid of somewhere in the £250m - £500m range.
Agree with everything you say @ jam2morrow. The fact that Amati didn't reduce their position when it reached levels of over £1, suggests that they still saw upside in my view.
I share your frustrations Shpunken. We know the company have cash runway until about May 2024. They may hope to have some kind of jv partner in place before then, who will perhaps bring some cash to the table in order to fund the roll out of the tech. If so, I'm intrigued to see the detail. If not and if they are banking on raising cash next year by way of issuing equity to keep the lights on, I think they must be deluded and probably need a shake. If that is their plan, I'd rather the company entered into a 'formal sales process' now. I don't know for sure, but I'd expect that several likely suitors might come out of the woodwork if the company put itself up for sale now. I'd also expect a sale price of multiples of where we are now. If I was Paul Jordan, and the largest individual shareholder in the company, I'd be saying this to the BOD. Now we have FDA approval, the BOD need to understand that loyal investors are expecting to see a tangible return on their investment and as soon as possible, as just reward for having backed the company when nobody else would. By that, I mean a clear projection as to how the BOD intend to make the company cash flow positive and over what time period. In my experience, investors will soon lose patience if they feel they are being expected to fund a vanity project with no clear pathway to profits. I for one would rather have 5 x the current share price in a formal sales process this year than the promise of a plan that might generate 10 x or 20 x in about ten years' time while they dilute the heck out of the company with equity raises.
I'm not sure many investors from China will have access to the London AIM market to be honest. But I like your train of thought!
Well, Dr Paul Jourdan, CEO at Amati Global Investors still holds nearly 12% of the company, having not sold a bean. I figure he's probably a more successful investor than I and probably has an inside track on this, so I'll stick around for as long as he does!
Laverda - Remember, we don't know what the Long Stop Date is going to be yet. The RNS states "30 April 2023, or such later date as the parties may agree (the "Long Stop Date")". So, the parties may agree to a date of say 31 July 2023 instead. I hope it's 30 April, but it's not nailed on.
yayay - Was that intended as a joke, or did you mean 'would have' ? lol ;-)
Dickie - Maybe whoever drafted the RNS (and perhaps doesn't understand the difference between brought and bought) is the same person that drafted parts of the company website. Have a look at the 'About/Our Story' text. Whoever wrote that clearly doesn't understand where they should be using 'its' and 'it's'. They don't seem to understand the difference between 'companies' and 'company's' either, as that's wrong multiple times. I try not to be too picky about these sorts of things on the whole as life's just too short, but when it's on a company website, it doesn't project a very professional impression unfortunately. Surely there's someone at the company who passed their English GCSE and could proof read this stuff. As an enthusiastic shareholder I'll even volunteer, for a small fee!
Let's just hope that their understanding of the mine permitting process in Australia is better than their spelling/grammar!
It's Nukem I see. They are the suppliers of the raw Xenon gas I believe. They are also a major shareholder in Polarean and have a representative on the board. Consequently, it's in their interests to promote us, but good to see all the same.
£6m trade too.........
Been a few pretty chunky buys today actually. Makes for a change!
Personally, I can't see the need for all the hysteria here. The company probably won't even exist in its current form by the middle of next year when the cash runs out. That's why the BOD are behaving the way they are, because they know they'll be cashing in and retiring. This company will be either sold at a significant premium to the existing market cap or taken forward by a jv partner who will assume overall control.
In just 36 days' time we'll be in Q2. In Q3 we expect to see Native Title Agreement sorted and a deal with Anglo American concluded. These milestones will be transformational for the company and are pretty imminent in mining terms really. Some people seem to forget that this is real mining, for real stuff, of real value. It takes a little time. This isn't built today, bust tomorrow crypto mining.
OK, it was just an observation. I note what you say and it wasn't my intention to cause offence. I don't deny that Iceberg has been an enthusiastic poster. Even caught the attention of CB, who name-dropped them in one of his interviews.
Pedro - If you wish to get up to speed on the company's strategy, you would be better off spending your time reading the most recent company RNS releases, rather than relying on opinions from anonymous posters on here. The company's strategy is quite clearly outlined in the last couple of updates.
As for Iceberg, I've not noticed them post for a while. I'm not sure they were as clever as you make out though. I have nothing against this particular poster, but their standard of written English wasn't great, which is always a red flag for me. You know, simple things like not knowing which there/their/they're to use, and the like.
I suspect that the spike in volume today had something to do with the block listing application for additional shares and the exercise of the director options already notified. I recall that the RNS stated that they would be admitted to AIM sometime around the 11 Jan.