Member Info for LIBERTY2

I'm waiting for the next Guardian article 'Private investors shocked that share prices fluctuate down as well as up - Treasury considering intervention'

Think some people are still spooked out by that after hours Supreme Court ruling...

Enjoy the sunshine folks, not so spooky outside.

The flip-flopping mindset of PI's never fails to amuse. Shares are a snip at under £6 one day, to selling at £5.40 the next.

I read the Fitch report last Wednesday, when it was released. All of this info is out there, if your holding here is significant enough to make any difference, you should be finding this stuff when it hits the press, not a week later. Currently at a 6% rise since Fitch rating (35% rise on the past 30 days), goes to show what the market thinks of it.

Not much to chat about after the SC victory - existential threat to CBG has been removed. CBG results in September, probable Lords Committee embarrasing of the FCA in the meantime, potential CBG commentary on provision amounts although I think this is unlikely until further into the consultation period, plus whatever else the news cycle throws up inbetween.

Remember, we're still trading at only 0.5 of asset value. Likely return of dividend or buyback scheme in the next 12 months. Institutional interest returning. CBG is climbing the 250 as we speak, forced Index fund rebalancing. Possible buyout target at £10+ (conservative figure based on SP / NAV alone) now the significant overhang has been lifted. Next upward gap won't be far away. *insets well known Buffett quote*.

Enjoy the sunshine folks.

Im attending the House of Lords next month for an event - would be amusing if its when Nikhil is blundering his way through a legal black hole.

On that point - when discussing valuations compared to STB for example.

Secure Trust have provisioned only £6m for compensation / admin costs associated with this matter.

There most recent finance book value for V12 was £500m, before they put it into run off recently.

They also historically had the Moneyway brand (often used for subprime lending, higher rates).

So they had a finance book 25% the size of CBG, have operated car finance for many years in the same market place, operated in the subprime sector which was often more expensive for consumers / rewarding for dealers, and they expect their costs to be 3% of what CBG believe theres may realistic be?

If I was a STB holder I would be sceptical, nervous perhaps, about an RNS after the FCA consultation. Perhaps the markets picking up on this too.

You also have Vanquis who operate under the Moneybarn brand, another subprime lender primarily. Moneybarn is run, atleast historically as a separate entity, and will fall into that Non-bank lender category. They have also provisioned modest amounts in the belief there documents were correct, maybe, maybe not.

From analysts estimates, CBG was the only provision which actually looked realistic - again, a conservative bank, making conservative decisions, a good place for shareholders to be.

For somebody who owns ‘many CBG shares’, manfor appears to be to CBG what chid is to Lloyds.

Zero confidence in the fundamentals and doesn’t agree with its value, but evidentially is choosing not to sell also.

Interesting people.

To this point, I believe this serves as a valuable lesson for spectators here which may create an opportunity for them in the future to make some cash.

For 9 months, there has been relentless comment on the ‘presence of shorts’, ‘shorts sticking around’, ‘when the shorts add, the wise take note’, ‘the shorts have the deep pockets and the inside knowledge’ blah blah…

If these guys exiting this week are naked shorts, they’ve lost an absolute fortune from when they were adding.

Far too much fear is paid into these insignificant short numbers (3% short last week / 97% long), its mind-boggling to me.

Don’t be blinded by somebody taking an, on the surface, opposing view to you. You’ve no idea if these are hedged long holds, poorly placed naked shorts, some other opaque strategy.

Do your research and stick to your convictions, don’t be kept out of the money by somebody elses actions alone, it can often prove costly.

Again ill not go too much into this, but Motonovo (Firstrand) aggressively came into the market around 10 / 12 years ago.

I state aggressively as from a dealer perspective, it was attractive, shall we say.

I would concur that CBG had much longer tried and tested methods to the products they were offering. I would call it ‘conservative’, quite like the conservative bank that they are.

It’l all get ironed out…

From my experience of the HP contracts - they were often, stopping short of stating always, front loaded.

Normally a customer would have the option to settle the balance in full after the first 3 or 6 payments, depending on lender.

If for example the customer took a £10,000 loan and wanted to pay this off after 6 payments of £200, they would often still owe more than the £10,000.

Commissions paid to dealers would only typically be clawed back for deals which had gone legal, repossessions basically, and sometimes for early terminations which had not surpassed a minimum time threshold.

So yes in rare circumstances there may have been instances where the bank broke even or potentially saw a loss on a very early full balance repay.

Correction - 16th Sept

So Clydesdale v FOS is listed for 15th Sept at the CoA. Judgement sometime there after, 4 to 6 weeks I would imagine given the narrowed SC verdict.

I find it staggering, or should I not be surprised anymore, that the FCA are pushing ahead on this without allowing that judgement to be delivered, prior to there proposed date for the consultation ending. They risk imposing a scheme which has no legal legs.

They are truly a menace to society. If this doesn’t end up with UK Banks V FCA in the courts ill eat my hat.

And yes ill take some action on Nikhil being out of the seat by the year end if somebodys providing odds.

You now have an emoldended banking sector, buoyed by the highest court in the land categorically stating that much of what they were doing was perfectly legal and accepted commercial practice. They will not take liberties from the FCA now, who started this whole mess. In my view, the banks are out for blood and have good reason to be.

I can see Lloyds taking on the fight now that CBG has handled this part. They have been very vocal on the matter, have the highest outright cost associated with it, and have been lobbying very hard behind the scenes as per reports.

I would wager any compensation scheme is below the £9bn quoted. Even at the mid-range of this estimate, the CBG provision should cover it *analyst views*. Anything from this point is a bonus from shareholders perspective - I would enjoy seeing the FCA made an example of here, together with the CMCs who are already in the sights of the banks.

Onwards and upwards.

To the financially illiterate, the shorters, the straight up lunatics, the mini cab drivers who didn’t receive sufficient attention as a child, the p/e warriors, the i’ve never heard of CBG until I saw the news experts, I ask of you… please keep it up for just a few hours longer, ive got a buy order to fill tomorrow and I would love it at under £4.50.

Thank you!

Given that we went into the close on Friday with a c.£750m hit priced into the SP on a price to book ratio, we are now looking at a realistic worse case scenario of c.£165m in the event the FCA do decide to proceed with the tightly set boundaries imposed by the SC on a CCA basis.

You do the maths on where you think SP will be.

Suns shining - good weekend ahead - will be back Monday.

SP growth next week / next 6 months will be influenced around the FCA release on Monday.

As knot states, there is now a distinct possibility that the FCA will decline to move on a scheme. Personally I feel they will still implement ‘some’ type of scheme around the CCA route - don’t know what that will look like in terms of whats considered excessive, time bars etc. But it is telling they are pushing on it so quickly with the Barclays case in the background - does suggest to me they have doubts on the FOS winning that case.

Either way - I believe with the known figures the £165m will be enough, possibly even conservative.

A month or so ago I threw out some numbers:

20-30% gain on a narrowed ruling

100% gain on a total overturn

I would peg yesterdays judgement as inbetween those ranges. Would pencil a 70% gain by Friday, £6.80, for fun.

I will be deploying some dry powder next week.

Enjoy your weekend folks.

LONDON, Aug 1 (Reuters) - The Financial Conduct Authority, a British regulator, said on Friday it would announce before financial markets open on Monday whether it would consult on a redress scheme for consumers with motor finance claims.

The FCA made the announcement shortly after the Supreme Court overturned a ruling on car finance commissions, a decision which is likely to ease the fears of banks about the extent of any redress scheme. (Reporting by Iain Withers Editing by William Schomberg

Its up 4% in NY, with a 7% swing.

?

Pleased you are in the money SWKM.

My thoughts on Monday -

1 - SP will be more than it is today.

2 - don't sell.

3 - definitely don't sell.

From the Close Brothers page... congratulations to Lloyds holders - a fantastic outcome for both banks.

Hopefully Chid and his illogical rambling essays can stay on this side of the fence now where atleast he reports having some financial interest.

CBG will be worth a look next week for any dry powder you may have...

Enjoy your weekend folks.

Jperry - its all good, I have enjoyed the conversation. A tonne of very useful insight from Knot I must say. This had a logical outcome from the start. I can see why some found it very difficult to look past the CoA ruling - you would expect them to get it right - its just they really didnt, and the SC have even gone to the lengths of stating HOW wrong they got it in their press summary. I am relieved sense has prevailed.

Appreciate the input from all on both sides of the market - its been a good ride so far and this trains only just pulling out the station.

Wishful thinking, but steady on.

Judgement leaves room for claims to proceed which have very large commission to balance percentages. Will likely effect some of CBG historical book, not many.

The DCA case which the FCA will be reporting on in the next few weeks will cost CBG some money - possibly less than has been provisioned, possibly more, who knows. And this may yet be delayed on the back of the Barclays case, which could then be found in Barclays favour and the whole thing thrown out!

Either way - this is a fantastic outcome today. Good times ahead.