RE: What a miserable response....13 Jun 2026 18:56
The chess board has become some what more convoluted again in the time since FCA scheme release. With this many parties involved and billions at stake, that could be expected.
Theres a lot of avenues in play right now, all leading to a single conclusive destination, over there, on the horizon, somewhere.
Its pretty muddy to try and nail down a specific outcome, or timescale to resolution, hence your market hesitation. Long held agreement from me on the banking sector short hedge for CBG - a buyback / dividend could help shake this dynamic, but still feel slim chance of it in 2026, for the above fore-mentioned reason, uncertainties. More over, I feel its just time again, it’l lose its utility at some point, already has to some degree.
Other moving parts being the awaited legal outcomes such as the Omnibus claim mentioned below - will have a very large affect on the dynamics around this, and other mass litigation in the future. FOS / FCA reforms working through Parliament - will affect realities for banks in the case of mass FOS referrals from consumers, also the currently contradictory look-back timescales proposed by the FCA in scheme, whilst suggesting 10 years during Gov consultation on reforms? Its really quite comical. All this alongside the big daddy of them all, the scheme being challenged in court. How many layers of the judicial system does that go through before conclusion, over how many months / years? Your guess as good as mine.
Assuming the UK based lenders weren’t just gaming the situation for a minute (knowledge of VW Merc challenge), when they chose not to challenge directly; it could be argued by some at this point the ‘certainty’ that came with said scheme was an acceptable route forward. Then you remember the precedent this sets for future litigation matters, and it becomes not so acceptable in the mid-term. Bit of a catch 22.
Too many moving parts to plot exact conclusions, the simple maths with this one is you either have faith CBG can absorb logical outcomes (logic often prevails in some form) and carry on doing Banky type things for years to come, or that they don’t - and you own or sell accordingly, but no ‘quick’ solutions to be had here, months and years needed.
Anyway, as always, sit back, have a brew, let time do its work. Its provided a rather splendid 18 month return - I expect it will over the proceeding 18 months too, albeit i’m happy to say I won’t be diving the scenarios quite as deeply for the next chapter in the more comfortable place CBG now finds itself, legally and financially. Lets hope the RoW can follow suit too over the next few months - that’l help us all.
All the best amigos.
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