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Also worth being aware - there will most likely be additional publications / notes issued from Viceroy, they won’t stop at one.

Not much for them to comment on from todays results, as management has intentionally starved them of oxygen by providing a strong but limited response.

Most likely hear from them again following FCA publication, which will be the point CBG may need to up provisions to account for current scheme, prior to potential JR etc refinements.

Another rollercoaster day by the looks of it. Hope all that partook in market watching enjoyed the ride!

Results look stable, no surprises. Redundancies positive for bottomline. Expected this would be the case and will stack up with RBC cost-cutting views in recent upgrade. Savings are accelerating, leaner by the month - good for future numbers and that long term hold for investor returns. Management reiterated dividend / buyback when appropriate - as anticipated no div until uncertainty resolved.

A firm rebuttal of the Viceroy report in managements commentary, as one would expect having read it.

Interesting snippets whilst listening in on the webcast such as:

- customer deposit bases have been intentionally dialled back recently, as previously we were taking a view of very high liquidity during high uncertainty.

That was one of the more telling nuanced statements from management, in their own conservative way. I too have noticed this as a CBG depositor, their saving rates aren’t quite as attractive as they once were, in a stack of peers. Suggestive of a comfort with the current liquidity levels, not indicative of a management team worried about funding in the near term. This is their easiest and cheapest route to shore up funding - if they needed it they would be ramping up their saving rates, not lowering.

On goes the show. Good to see we have some characters back such as Chid (now named Birdsong). That writing style is unmistakable - led me to notice ‘chid’ account has been deleted, interesting. Must be a reader of war novels with those usernames.

Balanced commentary should be welcomed on these forums, if interesting and factual - keep it up.

Stupmy - yes can vouch for that, beautiful country. Enjoyed a few walks along the lake. Now onto Italy for a few weeks. Will likely route back through France in April as heading to Jersey for the summer.

All the best amigos.

Cut off:

* see if theres any wiggle room.

All the best folks!

I missed the fun today - ironically drove through Basel, seems funny with all of this talk of regulatory requirements. Stopping in a beautiful town south of it on one of the Alpine lakes, Lucerne, anybody been?

I digress - credit where credit is due, Viceroy have timed that well and achieved the desired reaction. Never heard of them before, but some interesting reading. Unfounded and unethical, would spring to mind for most of their past endeavours.

Good to see the response from management. Will this force their hand tomorrow to be more candid about their calculations and current provisions? We shall see. The market has been asking for clarity - perhaps this will move toward providing it in advance of the scheme launch.

Nothings changed here today - other than the SP, which as I made a long-winded point of a few days ago, should not be viewed in isolation when looking to assess reality. It is however a good representation of the current fear climate at any-given time, which as I also noted, is currently at 'peak fear' - perfect timing for a short attack, fair play.

The report is somewhat comical I must say. Broad calculations, extreme assumptions + zero allowance for scheme refinement or JR. But hey, if I wanted to hit a SP I would say just about the same. And they have prior form for exactly this, later being found to have been unlawful in some cases...

SG - good to see you back, didn't know you had departed. If any of that post was pointed this way, thats unfortunate.

Consistencies in my posting:

- time is essential, don't try to guess the direction of a market day to day, you will lose. Give it 5 years from today, and I would be more confident to suggest the SP will be higher. Tomorrow? No idea.

- consistently corrected the notion around the 'shorts having closed out', to declared shorts*. There is likely a significant short presence under the threshold, or through other derivatives which are not visible - now we have a better idea of where. Good to see, more to buy back some day.

- tried to provide basic counsel to the regularly flared emotions from some members. Just trying to save some heart-ache for folk. Looks like those efforts don't help though unfortunately - will shelve the FOC counselling for now.

- £300m may not suffice.

Top and bottom is, that if remarks from others on this amateur public forum constitute any part of anybody's investment thesis - thats an error, a well documented one. From some of the rhetoric on display I am assuming this may be the case. We are all real-life adults, spend your money, take your chances, park the emotions elsewhere if it doesn't work out as quick as liked. Sell, hold, buy - your choices.

I am currently on holiday mode so dropping in and out of this and other world events every few days. If its turns out that CBG is going to breach their CET1 - let me know and I can swing by to see the guys in Basel on the way home in a few weeks, see if the

As a point of interest, Shawbrook gave their results today which is their first since their recent IPO back into the public domain.

I am not invested in them, so do not have a deep knowledge of the business or what the market was forecasting, but to my eye they gave a pretty upbeat performance across the board. SP fallen by 10% today at time of writing, back below IPO level - no particular logic from this on the surface.

Will it be higher in the future? Most probably, based on those results.

Logic does not always equal reality in the short term. Time will often iron out the creases.

Yep I hear you. Greed brought us both here and I am looking to achieve a sustained 200 / 300% return too, but I find it useful to accept that that journey may be longer or shorter depending on the many moving parts in this crazy world.

Fingers crossed for sanity, and logic, to prevail sooner rather than later both for CBG and for the rest of the world...

You're in your head too much SG. Respectfully.

Peak fear time approaching, just like before the SC ruling. Look how that turned out. And I mean turned out in the sense of the reality of the boundaries being legally defined, not simply a SP movement. The SP has been surpressed for so long on the back of uncertainty, which still exists. Its now upto the FCA to recognise reality, or for the courts to do it for them.

Don't view a SP as representative of reality - it is often detatched, has been for around 18 months for CBG to some extent. Granted, risk has to be priced, but its a short term price supression. CBG has been a very versatile tool for the hedge market, and will soon have very little utility.

Obviously I can understand why people get panicky with a declining share price, but genuinely its just a waste of energy. Stop looking so closely.

If the proposed scheme does require a £400m provision from CBG - then so be it. Another years profit put to one side, either paid out, or absorbed back into the company once it goes legal and is resolved that way. Either way at this SP level, it inevitably comes out in the wash if you are taking a proper investment view of 5+ years.

Don't get lost in the short term noise. Theres a regional war and global crisis going on alongside this. A perfect storm to extract panic with a fluctuating SP from those who allow it in their psyches.

Zero reductions in II ownership, only additions in recent times. Declared short interest broadly reducing, for those that value this metric. Stable volume of 300,000 - 400,000 shares traded per day. No part of that suggests an 'FCA leak' of negative terms, leading to an unmitigated disaster as you put it. Not that I would consider a short term SP of £3 odd to be an unmitigated disaster frankly.

This is the deal. Stocks go up, stocks go down. Give it enough time and they go up a lot more than go down. Saves the worry when you, truly, operate with time.

Let the FCA tell the world what the deal is. Let the banks decide if thats acceptable. Let Trump and the Iranians sort themselves out. Let oil flow freely. Let a relief rally fuel a continutation of the bull market. And then you may see the first sincere SP from CBG for a long time.

All the best folks.

Hope you are all well folks - crazy world we live in. A few minutes watching bombs drop on the news channels puts into perspective what concerns or worries some of us may have about a temporarily surpressed stock market.

As for why its affecting CBG - well its a global crisis which has the ability to cause some level of inflation, potential slowing of economic growth, rates to remain higher for long (bullish for CBG short-term, balanced out by higher potential for recession or borrower defaults later), general consumer and business senitment etc etc etc. Its just a general mess and a whole tonne of noise and uncertainty, which as we all know, the market hates most. It will effect everything. At this point its a question of how long does it rumble on for - no idea from my seat. Rising / lowering tide and all ships, until then. Have a coffee, sit in the sun, and think yourselves fortune - theres some poor folk who would swap you a million times over right now.

Interesting thought of how this scenario may be shaping Treasury conversations and demands with the FCA a mere week or two until scheme launch. Cannot imagine the Treasury are willing to take any risks with the financial sector right now.

Fingers crossed for humanities sake that this resolves swiftly and cleanly. Lets see how the far less important matter of the FCA turns out this month too.

Again correction to, declared shorts*

It would be reasonable to estimate a material open short percentage under the 0.5% threshold still exists. For example, Systematica reduced by 0.02% or 30,000 shares to 0.48%. That 0.48% is still outstanding as far as we know. Blackrock / Walleye both floating just under 0.5% at the last reported levels. How big the short is under the waterline, who knows. A few percent I would think. Positive from my perspective - still more to buy back.

CBG performed broadly in the middle of a range of peers, large and small today - https://www.google.com/finance/quote/CBG:LON?client=safari&hs=yNmU&sca_esv=0ae547a2fef99e8f&hl=en-gb&output=search&source=lnms&fbs=ADc_l-aN0CWEZBOHjofHoaMMDiKpWuJzWbn6y2Zf42jFClqc77Q_gl-HqmxPM1FD2mvM_3iPjH-HDdEbsKGXxVjyJLS8_9SJOYdKqy_FeCeEwS4XsireCWZAcYR1bAHupPqYfNk-bKM-VPrGXWm86AuQ2TjjLxUji6wBg1ihSt7L_v6Be2cUO--7VOzv_QES9BNRQfxut-BY6gqMcDcLW8LiHdGEsLvAj4d_qNYcjypeM3kDHsYf_yk&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjzheG37YCTAxVJBdsEHciQApoQ0pQJegQIEhAB&comparison=LON%3ASTAN%2CLON%3AMTRO%2CLON%3ABARC%2CLON%3AVANQ

Was awaiting a post in broken English blaming CBG management for not securing a ceasefire in the Middle East today, but that didn’t surface anyway - good to see.

I for one will be taking advantaged of this wider disruption over the next month, may also prove useful for CBG buying specifically if the FCA scheme goes live, is better than expected, and has the market sleeping on it. Interesting times ahead.

All the best folks.

Most recent CET1 figure was October 2025, including Winterflood sale it was 13.4%. This also accounts for the additional £135m provision made in that period.

If an additional provision is made following the FCA scheme launch, it will reduce accordingly. I am aware of the management targets for CET1. Their incredibly conservative approach throughout is more to the point of why a dividend / buyback would be unlikely to return until the matter is resolved conclusively, JR etc, not solely because of capital ratios, probably 2027 in that scenario.

There is also scenarios, which I noted, which would make a div / buyback more likely in 2026.

It could be true that the £300m covers all liabilities and potentially be excessive, and I expect once this is all resolved it will be, but my base case is that if the FCA scheme goes through broadly as proposed in consultation it will likely not be enough and another paper provision will be made. Probably something in the order of 20% more would be my thought. ‘Probability weighted scenarios’, and all that.

I have no factual basis to support that assumption, simply going off industry practice and prior provisions / top-ups from elsewhere in the market weighed against estimated total cost to industry.

However, when you factor in a narrowing of the scheme either in March by the FCA willingly, or following a JR, and that liability reduces accordingly, to £300m, £200m, £100m, who knows.

As far as dividends / buyback - its all to do with the road map and when provisions have to be realised to account for current situational liabilities.

If the £300m is upped due to the FCA scheme launch requiring it to be - no div or buyback in 2026 as a base case. Will only occur once JR is resolved or once CET1 recovers - 2027 I expect.

If £300m is sufficient or excessive following scheme launch in a few weeks, then you can expect dividend / buyback return in 26.

Its not so much a question of if £300m will be enough, which I think once fully resolved it will be - its more so a point of when does the situation allow them to prove it will be enough as far as divs / buybacks are concerned.

Knot; my mapping, when factoring for a JR, plays out like this, what is your view?

- March scheme launch

- JR appeal launched by lenders within 4 weeks (mid April)

- request for a Stay of the scheme lodged at the same time

- decision on granting a hearing of JR and Stay - approx 4 weeks (May / June)

- expedited hearing penciled for July - Sept, if granted

- ruling handed down - Sept- Dec

- curve ball being a mid-JR negotiated deal

Under the consultation suggestions (not final scheme), the earliest redress payments could be July / August from my calculations. If no Stay is granted, some payments could be forced prior to a ruling.

Stays appear to be hard to achieve, but on the scale of this matter and unrecoverable costs from the banks, it could meet the threshold. I believe if a Stay was granted it would be a very strong initial indicator of the way the ruling would land.

Further to previous post - a gut feel would suggest the FCA will release the scheme week commencing 9th March, probably mid week Tues-Thurs. Why? The uptick in news such as the in-house lenders FT piece suggests to me its a handful of weeks away. FCA had also suggested Jan / Feb for the scheme, later updated to Feb / Mar - I think this is where they would land, around the 9th - 14th.

If this is the case, Close will have time to analyse and brief prior to the update, which would be useful. This is where you would get the ‘plan to return to double digit RoE’, any provision updates, general legal position commentary.

Anchor chain could be cut, or drag may continue a little longer.

We shall see.

Listed for 17th March. 50/50 if the FCA will stick their head above the parapet before then.

Sun is shining - have a good one folks.

CBG is and has been bearing the entire weight of the FCA redress scheme in the market for several months now. Initially through 2024, partly 2025, it was shared amongst the sector. As time has gone on CBG appears to be the short bet of choice for a market hedge against the scheme or the industry in general. Due to various reasons, to name a few; lack of dividend, underlying performance struggles, general exposure to the scheme relative to size of bank - frankly, if you want a hedge its not a bad one to take. And thats the thing - it is being used as a hedge, not a naked short. The general outcome of this debacle is fairly well accepted amongst the sane and logical, its just a question of when.

The considerable weight of this hedge will be released, it will happen quickly, those using this utility will exit and be gone before the cost is too great, and it will have served its purpose.

My point being, you just can’t expect a lot of sincere movement here until this dragging anchor is cut and dropped into the sea - which is nearing. May be once the FCA release the scheme and the reality is known, may be when the lenders take them to court and the case evolves, and ends in a Hopcraft style victory followed by a 30% rise the following trading day - with an ‘after hours verdict’ thrown in to spook a few along the way - who knows.

Patience, as always, is key. The true value of this business will be realised again, in time.

All the best folks.

Could not recommend that anybody does it at this time of year. We did, because it fitted with our 2026 travel plans, but frankly it was bleak as the weather was mainly awful.

I would suggest early or late season, Apr / May or Sept / Oct.

There was very few people doing the Frances route this month, almost too few. More would have been good to serve as a distraction from the rain.

There is also nothing open along the route. Theres tonnes of small Camino ‘hamlets’ and towns you go through which are all closed until probably April. You need these places open and busy to provide some morale.

Take note of your daily walking distances, we did several 30km stints, which day after day is punishing.

Also, be sure you treat yourself to the best of the best accommodation. The ‘quality’ hotels that the travel providers provide are certainly not on my comprehension of quality, they are incredibly basic. Having somewhere comfortable to walk to each day is important.

Book a few days in Santiago after, you won’t want to jump on a flight right away. Couple of good 5 stars here.

All in all - it was an experience for us, albeit a pretty brutal one, but it did serve as a considerable challenge which I see as positive. I have no doubt it would be a better rounded trip during the summer season.

Amusingly, having just finished the Camino de Santiago, at some point along the way I started to relate to how Rathi must be feeling; head down in the rain, relentlessly marching toward a destination, having wish you’d never started.

Made me laugh.

Well yes good news in the sense it signals direction. Although a moderation specifically linked to in-house manufacturer / franchise relations would not directly benefit CBG.

As has been the case throughout, the direction is shown, and the effect on reality is slowly fed. Rathi commented months ago suggesting a softening, this is the first direct suggestion of how it may affect the scheme in its costs, there will be more.

Question as has always been the case will be, does the FCA relent enough to appease the lenders, or do they fancy their chances in court. You’l find out in a month or so.

All the best.

The Tier2 Note in question was issued in 2021, with a 2031 expiry.

In year 5 of a notes cycle, it starts to be written down on book. So for example the £200m note would be accounted at £160m in 2027, and so on, if written down a straight line 20% over the next 5 years. Basically, the note gradually loses its capital value to the business from this point forward.

Management have the decision of weighing up a very low rate, 2%, against a heavily depreciating book asset. They clearly believe that refi now is more cost effective going forward.

The 11% coco is trading at all time highs this week, so they are likely taking a view on an opportunity to lock in an acceptable rate and maintain the capital power of the new note they issue.

The maintained tier2 capital level allows lending against that capital at 100% of its value, so you are factoring for a percentage return between the cost of refi and RoE for the new issued note.

In short - just Bank business.

A fuller write up of the RBC view -

https://www.cityam.com/close-brothers-how-the-motor-finance-scandal-reshaped-one-of-europes-least-cost-efficient-lenders/