focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Myles McNulty tweeted an hour ago confirming he's still a happy holder of BMN and saying that:
"We should expect the current V price rally to continue for some time yet; during which time #BMN will generate mega cash and further expand its divisions."
https://twitter.com/MylesMcNulty/status/1374120483650736130
PS - Whilst I agree with you, Pdub, I'm not a fan of the phrase "man up" in general. And I actually do have sympathy for those who are feel frustrated (I feel the same way), I just disagree with those who choose to consistently complain and clog up the bb with negativity which serves no purpose. We're better than that, and there's more effective ways to communicate to the BoD if necessary.
Completely agree with Pdub.
The irony is that we've presumably had plenty of potential investors visit this bulletin board having recently discovered the wonders of vanadium and VRFBs from the success of our peers (who shall not be named), and yet most would've been put off by the negativity here.
In my opinion, if you're truly fed up and want the company to pull its finger out re comms (everything else I think it's doing an excellent job of), then I would recommend contacting them directly, because that's far more likely to get their attention than ten dozen messages on here.
https://www.bushveldminerals.com/contact-us/
The other irony is that I truly believe we're going to receive some transformational news very soon and the second we do the sentiment of the bb will change immediately.
Then, all of a sudden, rather than attacking us for being too positive, there'll be plenty of people patting the likes of Pdub, Alfacomp, Sanchez, myself, and others on the back (like they did around New Year). When the truth of the matter is that nothing had changed in December and January for us to suddenly rise like that. Nor has anything changed for us to fall since then either!
My point is that this will turn around for the better v soon and turn around very suddenly, and then all of a sudden, with the sentiment behind us, we shall reach new highs (assisted by the fact we're starting from a higher base from the 10-12p area we were in not long ago).
Onwards and upwards : )
Looking at this from a potential Upside vs Downside perspective:
- The Downside is incredibly limited. It's hard to see how the share price could fall any lower. The worst case scenario I can see ifs that we fall to the 200 day SMA which is currently around 15p and rising each day. So downside is a 11.75% fall from here, and that's me being super harsh.
- Whereas the upside potential is mind-blowing.
The mining operation alone is worth about 40-50p FV at this snapshot in time, and will be worth 100p+ once production reached 6,000mtV in 2022/23 and Vanadium prices are even higher.
Then you've got the non-mining side of the business. This is currently being valued at ZERO but has the potential to suddenly explode off the back of the Eskom BESS tenders or other BESS tenders now that South Africa have decided to open things up this week. Once this happens, BMN will be seen for the Green stock it truly is. Chika has said they would apply for the LSE Green Mark. And suddenly the non-mining side of the business could be worth 100-200p alone I believe. Maybe more.
So the potential upside is 150-300p in my opinion. Even if take the lower end of that, the potential upside is roughly 880%
Therefore, being conservative, I see the upside vs downside as roughly 880% upside vs 12% downside. And that's in the short term. Longer term it looks even more of a no brainer.
DYOR & GLA : )
Interesting to see what is Required for that job - I certainly wouldn't have a hope in hell of getting this job!
"About you
Bachelor's degree from an accredited college or university in legal, Engineering, Business or appropriate. Master of Science (MSc) degree or Master of Business (MBA) advantageous.
Understands and has experience across several regions, the project development cycle and the participants and service providers in those components of the project development cycle.
Understands and has experience in the bidding and in managing multiple bids across multiple jurisdictions in the renewable energy sector.
Professional project manager qualifications are desirable.
6-10 years’ experience in renewable energy.
Experience as a project manager in the bid management in the development phase of process.
Experience in project development and origination within the renewable energy sector (Solar & Wind).
Experience in battery energy storage project management advantageous.
Experience in power purchase agreements, permitting requirements, bidding, and financial aspects of a project.
Experience in management process to secure land.
Experience in permits and licenses.
Experience in renewable energy projects in running the financial close to commencement of construction.
Knowledge of African energy markets participants, structures, and trends.
Knowledge of Financial markets participants, structures, and trends advantageous.
Understanding and communication of the technical elements of battery energy storage (BESS).
The application of use-cases to the selection of philosophical designs for responding to tenders is advantageous."
- Ridiculously low market valuation at present vs any analysis of Fair Value. Let’s not forget annualised production has already increased almost 40% since the start of the year, and is due to increase so much more over the next year. On this basis alone, ignoring all the exciting non-mining/Green operations, we should be at 35-40p already.
- Green Stock as well as an excellent mining stock. Not widely perceived to be Green yet but this will change suddenly when the Eskom news lands.
- Investors Chronicle, Financial Times, Myles McNulty, and many others have all tipped BMN at the start of the year.
- Out of hundreds of companies, Stockopedia came up with their Top 20 tips for 2021, and BMN came 3rd (and will do better than the two above it!)
- Vanadium prices have significantly risen in 2021, and are expected to reach $45gV at the bare minimum this year, and BMN's share price always seem to track the commodity price sooner or later (Don't actually think that's fair necessarily but that's what has happened for years, and that's now a very very good thing!)
- Vanadium prices are now rising so fast I believe we will see $45kgV in April.
For newbies, please read Lionel's Summary here: https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/lionels-big-picture-428
http://www.bushveldminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Bushveld-Minerals-February-Corporate-Presentation.pdf
DYOR & GLA
*
So yeah the Upside hugely exceeds the downside. And there's significant progress clearly being made on a variety of fronts which will soon all come to light finally in a way that brings all the various strands together.
We're on the cusp of the "Big Reveal" which will see the fortunes of this share suddenly change in a way that'll be reminiscent of 2018!
Completely agree, Alastair.
Also, if you simply look at this from a Upside vs Downside perspective:
- The Downside is incredibly limited. It's hard to see how the share price could fall any lower. The worst case scenario I can see ifs that we fall to the 200 day SMA which is currently around 15p and rising each day. So downside is a 15% fall from here, and that's me being super harsh.
- Whereas the upside potential is mind-blowing. The mining operation alone is worth about 40-50p FV at this snapshot in time, and will be worth 100p+ once production reached 6,000mtV in 2022/23 and Vanadium prices are even higher. Then you've got the non-mining side of the business. This is currently being valued at ZERO but has the potential to suddenly explode off the back of the Eskom BESS tenders or other BESS tenders now that South Africa have decided to open things up this week. Once this happens, BMN will be seen for the Green stock it truly is. Chika has said they would apply for the LSE Green Mark. And suddenly the non-mining side of the business could be worth 100-200p alone I believe. Maybe more. So the potential upside is 150-300p in my opinion. Even if take the lower end of that, the potential upside is roughly 750%.
Being conservative, I see the upside vs downside as being 50:1 (750% upside vs 15% downside). It's a complete no brainer.
Also, if you take a birds eye view at what has happened in recent months, there's been many positive developments:
- Excellent Q4/FY 2020 Update, showing production rose from 2,930mtV to 3,630mtV. A 24% / 700mtV increase in a super tough year.
- Orion funding to be used to boost production this year. This will reduce production figures in 2021 but boost them significantly thereafter going forward.
- Taking the above into account, the expected production increase this year of a further 13-20% / 470-720mtV increase vs 2020 (despite the expected downtime). And this is very conservative. I reckon it'll be an increase of 700mtV this year at worse, which would be the same increase as 2020.
- Vanadium prices have risen considerably since January.
- Electrolyte Production Plant progress. Engineering phase completed Q4 '20. Procurement will complete Q1 '21 "followed by construction."
- Efforts to simplify the company structure into one single entity. We've seen signs of this already from the internal docs shared online of Vametco and Vanchem simply becoming part of "Bushveld Vanadium" and BELCO being established a part of "Bushveld Vanadium" (as confirmed in the last Update). And there's clearly more to follow with major hints of Lemur being disposed of etc.
- Historic announcement in South Africa on Thursday which means that Bushveld Energy are suddenly surrounded by opportunities on their doorstep all of sudden.
- Eskom BESS Tender Announcement has dragged on but this is due any day now.
So yeah the Upside hugely exceeds the downside, and significant progress is
Ah no I've only just seen this and now I feel a little bad for laughing at what gambitxjs has said!
Please don't take what has been said here personally. You're a good guy who seems to have his head screwed on, it's your money, and your choice what you do with it of course. And I actually sort of admire you for being honest enough to come onto the bulletin board to explain that it was you who sold out suddenly yesterday. Not an easy thing to do.
But then yeah at the same time I'm sorta shocked because you seemed as though you were on the same page as me only a few days ago in being so bullish, and I honestly do feel you're making a mistake selling out completely at this point in time. Whilst there's always other opportunities elsewhere (I watch things right across the market so I see them too and am invested in other shares of course!), I truly believe this is the very best immediate, short, medium, and long term opportunity there is.
And, because I've been here so long, I've seen people have enough and sell out at all sorts of times, and some of the timing of people departing has been downright awful. e.g. I recall people saying they've had enough when the share price fell 13% from 3.1p to 2.7p in early 2017, they sold in March 2017 and by April 2017 we had risen 145% for instance. And I feel we're at a similar juncture in time but it's even bigger than ever, with multi-faceted strategies that first incepted in Fortune's brain years ago are suddenly all about to come together. The big reveal is just around the corner.
So I would urge you to reconsider the decision you made yesterday, because it feels very hasty, you could really regret it, and it is not too late.
And, regardless of whether you heed my advice or not, I wish you all the best matey. Hope it all works out for you.
LOL Gambitxjs you were absolutely spot on after all !
JVetch - I'm sorry to hear that you chose to sell out and honestly very surprised (Your timing could not be worse in my honest opinion), but you seem like a very good guy and so I wish you all the best with your investments and hope to see you back here again one day mate.
Good luck : )
Clones,
Actually think it might be both.
It dropped in such a weird way from 18.3p to sub 18p that I agree with Alfa that it must've been a treeshake.
However it appears as though the MMs then had to work through a huge sell, perhaps bigger than they anticipated, after they shook the tree, hence the bizarre movement we saw from 18.3p to 17.25p
Hope that makes sense?
After hours, it has been reported on the official LSE website that there was a 1,691,862 sell this morning.
This would explain why the share price suddenly fell so sharply the way it did all of sudden from 18.30p to 17.25p this morning.
And the fact it is such an unusually massive sell and also such an unusual number as well leads me to believe that the seller who has been ****ing on our party recently may finally have run out of shares to sell !
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/BMN/bushveld-minerals-limited/trade-recap
Fingers crossed !
Fantastic post, Raz! (restated below for ease)
However I completely agree with Pdub as well that we should avoid talking too much about other shares here. Especially when there's so much to discuss here of course!
"If the market values FAR with a market cap of $136m producing 270 tonnes of Vanadium in 2020.
By comparison BMN produced 3,631 tonnes in 2020, 13 x more. Like for like BMN is 13x larger so market cap should be $1.7 billion and share price should be above £1.50p by comparison.
If this is how markets are operating now then BMN has over 1054% upside potential to maintain a fair compare with FAR
This is the message you should get out across all the Social media platforms. Our upside if off the scale..
Reality is we should be 30x higher based on our increase this year in production/ finances secured for expansion/BE/ Electrloyte plant/ Eskom news/ news yesterday from SA re no limits for Self generation so if we are also factoring future potential then like for like SP v FAR BMN should be above £3..."
In defence of the Comms here:
It seems as though there may well be an iceberg of information the BoD are unable to talk about because it is confidential information and they do not want to fall foul with the South African govt, regulators, or Eskom in any way. We keep seeing the tip of this iceberg, or even possibly just hints of the tip of this iceberg, and nothing more, and it's been like that for ages (I know) but we truly are on the cusp of the iceberg being revealed. The announcement yesterday was huge, with multiple references to energy storage. The Eskom BESS tender concluded in late October, and we should receive news on this very soon too. It's all coming. But none of this stuff can be communicated prematurely.
Also Chika Edeh (the lady who replies to the emails) often does eventually reply. I've had 4 replies from her in recent months. It can just take her some time.
If people wish to near enough guarantee a response, I recommend us jointly writing/agreeing upon a comprehensive email with all our queries so that they cannot be ignored, because this did work in November if you remember.
Otherwise I have to agree the comms is not what you would expect of a company of the size, scale, and significant of Bushveld.
Their decision to often lump news together in Quarterly Updates rather than release stuff immediately (e.g. like with the Electrolyte Plant Progress) drives me mad.
The fact that the Q4 Update we had last month had an error in it really wound me up as well.
And this new newsletter linking back to the website is laughable. It must be some IT issue but it astonishing they haven't got this right. [I wonder if they think they're updating us more than they are to an extent]
So there's no denying BMN really need to up their game with their comms. But my point above is that, even if their comms were not so weak, I reckon people would still be super frustrated simply because of the amount of news they're simply not allowed to release at this point in time!
Sanchez,
As a LTH I have to disagree with this bloody conspiracy theory that the MMs somehow have a vendetta against Fortune & Co.
Whilst Fortune has spoke repeatedly in interviews that institutional investors want to buy in but only if they can do so for a discount and he has always said No to these requests because he doesn't believe that's fair on normal investors like us, I struggle to believe that IIs would somehow gang up in revenge against BMN.
Even if they did have the motive to do this (I don't believe they do), the fact we have re-rated multiple times in the past suggests that they do not have enough control/power as you give them credit for.
So my view is that, whilst the MMs do some sneaky stuff, like tree shake this morning, they are not out for revenge, and - even if they were - they are simply not capable of stopping us from re-rating.
I actually cannot wait for us to be on the FTSE Main Market and the JSE if only so I can stop hearing this conspiracy theory.
I completely 100% agree with this next bit though:
"I am expecting a JSE listing and a FTSE listing, a repositioning in the market and big news regarding our role in this Tsunami of renewables. Why else are we expanding to 6000MTV so quickly and telling the world what an opportunity there is for VRFB in South Africa."
As a super LTH, I believe we are on the cusp of the most exciting period in Bushveld's history right now : )
Dave77,
Welcome again, and honestly that's some impressive buying! I wish I had the funds to do what you've just done haha
As you can tell, I believe you're joining us at an incredible time, just before the full story is revealed to the market, so congratulations on that!
We're going to have a very exciting end to the month : D
This share price movement this morning looks like a proper tree shake to me. Perhaps because the MMs are running out of shares so are now resorting to a tactic to panic a few people / put off some prospective buyers.
Will be 18p+ again later today