18th February Trading Update 18 Feb 2015 10:10
Cash flow problems strike again!
Considering that, in the 22nd September trading update, they confirmed they had received the (Jan and) February payment from PTNP under the 2014 repayment plan you would expect PTNP to have paid SyQic for June and July. Instead we hear they have only paid part of the June payment (and clearly none of the July payment yet), which therefore shows there’s been a slight slowdown in payments. This is not great news - this is why the market is reacting so badly, because they think it’s a sign of things to come.
Confirmation that trade debtor balances increasing also adds to the market’s worries about this company and really takes the shine off the huge jump in revenue because clearly a good chunk of that figure is yet to be received.
The net cash is low and indicates a placing might occur however, excluding the above’s impact on the cash balance, I doubt it’s the reason for the fall because the company has clearly been investing that money wisely.
Having said all of the above I still think the market is treating this SyQic far too harshly for a variety of reasons:
Revenue has grown massively to £10.7m. That’s remarkable considering that the original estimates 2014 FY revenue was £7.8m.
Piecing together various RNSs it’s possible to work out the following:
Average monthly revenue for Jan to June = £0.77m
Average monthly revenue for July & August = £0.98m
September revenue = £1.16m
Average monthly revenue for October, November & December = £3.94m / 3 = £1.31m
This therefore suggests that 2015 FY revenue will be £15.7m but, knowing SyQic, it shall be even more.
Profit before tax for 2014 should be roughly £2.2m, a huge increase against £0.1m / £0.57m in the last financial year.
Additionally the outlook very strong in terms of their Telco model, OTT model, and their expansion into other territories.
Conclusion
SyQic is clearly growing remarkably fast and is a very well-run company, but cash flow problems (due to PTNP) continue to trouble it. Today’s news is disappointing in respect to those cash flow problems however SyQic will inevitably be cash flow positive sooner or later and so I remain very bullish.