Paul Scott likes this a lot!17 Apr 2015 15:14
Laura Ashley Holdings (LON:ALY)
Share price: 29.13p
No. shares: 727.8m
Market Cap: £ 212.0 m
(at the time of writing, I hold a long positon in this share)
Preliminary results - for the 53 weeks to 31 Jan 2015 were published at 14:38 this Friday afternoon - I'm unhappy with this on three fronts:
Firstly, I was winding down for the weekend, so it is inconsiderate of the company to publish its results at this time.
Secondly, announcing results during market hours is unfair on shareholders, some of whom will be able to read & digest the results quickly, and hence gain a competitive advantage by buying more, whilst other shareholders may not read the results until the weekend and might have to pay more on Monday morning to buy shares.
Thirdly, this is the first time the company has informed the market of how it has traded, since its interim results on 5 Sep 2014 - that's far too long a gap to leave shareholders in the dark, and it should have put out a Xmas trading update.
Key points;
Anyway, setting those grumbles aside, these figures are a pleasure to read, and seem positive on almost all fronts;
• LFL sales up 1.3% for the full year - reasonably good
• Profit before tax up 14.6% to £23.5m
• Adjusted EPS up 22.1% to 2.43p (beats consensus EPS forecast of 2.1p by 15.7%)
• Net cash of £27.8m (3.8p per share, 13.1% of the market cap)
• Current trading is stronger - at 3.0% LFL sales growth for Feb- Mar 2015
• Total divis of 2.0p maintained, giving a tremendous 6.9% yield
• Online sales growth was good, at +8.6%, now totals 16% of all sales
• Balance sheet is sound, with £43.9m NAV, and £41.9 NTAV (writing off intangibles)
• Pension deficit has risen from £8.8m to £17.8m
So clearly all of those points are positive, apart from the very last one, which is negative, but unavoidable.
Valuation - the most appropriate EPS figure to use for valuation purposes is the 2.43p adjusted EPS, so at 29.13p the PER drops out at 12.0, which strikes me as being a bargain, given that the company is trading well, and profit growth this year should be good.
Cantors has upgraded its 2015/16 EPS forecast from 2.3p to 2.45p, which strikes me as very conservative. I'm pencilling in between 2.7p to 3.0p EPS for this year. If you adjust out net cash of 3.8p per share, and go with my forecasts, then the cash neutral PER would be between 8.4 and 9.4, which looks too cheap, in my opinion.
Cantors has a price target of 35p, which looks achievable, in my opinion, so there should be a good 20% upside on the current share price, in my view.
Outlook - 3.0% LFL sales growth in Feb - Mar 2015 is good going, well ahead of last year, and it sounds like management are confident this will continue;
My opinion - what's not to like?! These are good figures, with a positive outlook, and the shares look good value to me. I love the big dividend yield here, and that alone sho