Member Info for LetsTry

It might or might not avoid insolvency.

There are glimmers of hope (like pent up demand and decent management), but its fate is dependent on factors it can’t influence let alone control.

I'll continue to watch but without great enthusiasm.

sorry - typos : government hoped to have the over 80s and most at risk individuals vaccinated by March.....

should make a bit more sense now!

Vaccination is important, but hard to answer your question to address.

Progress of the national vaccination programme will be set by availability of vaccine rather than people and places to administer it. Government have announced how much they have signed up to buy, but not the delivery schedule. How many will be given and by when is largely guesswork. The exception is general statements to the effect that government hopes to have the over 80s. by extension, processing of others won’t start until then.

Not good news for Easter break sales.

Looking to summer, it's currently impossible to request an appointment for a jab, only respond to an invitation sent to you. None of us know when we will receive our invitation, and when those we might want to travel with will receive theirs. I therefore don’t see how people can confidently book holidays much in advance (without at least paying a hefty insurance premium to recover your costs if you need to cancel if it doesn't happen in time).

Sorry, I can't answer your sell, yes or no question. All I can tell you is that I have resisted any temptation to buy (yet).

Yep, you may well be right. TUI may well be well run company, but being well run is not necessarily sufficient if the cards are otherwise stacked against them.

If recent changes haven’t already pushed them over the edge I suspect they have little if any additional resilience to further adverse news.

Let’s ponder that for a moment.

TUI are at more risk now than at this time a week ago. Setting aside other parts of the rescue package which might also be adversely affected, the consortium running the RI might fear that take up of new shares in the RI could be lower than previously expected. Their response? Perhaps they would advise that market conditions have moved against success and suggest it not proceed. Personally, I think that’s unlikely. More likely they might advise that to sell they need to reduce the subscription price, or that the management fees/cost of underwriting will necessarily have to rise. Either way the RI will net less than anticipated, further increasing the likelihood of the begging bowl being passed around again, and sooner rather than later.......and there's little prospect comfort and happiness for shareholders there.

we do. In short, from the position of someone not yet invested, it is currently very difficult to see much if anything that is positive.

I take no pleasure in saying this, but TUI strikes me as a well run business that could potentially be another victim of hostile trading environment.

robertgleed - good luck to you, fellah. I hope you make some money. Not my game but I wish you well.

The RI is part of a rescue package scaled to meet the needs of the business assuming that travel restrictions will be eased from June. With the prospects of that receding quickly the chances are that TUI will be back passing the hat around for a fourth time. However they do it, if indeed they can, it will be further bad news for shareholders.

Indeed, with new restrictions on air travel to and from the UK, and TUI suspending flights from Luton, their cash flow problems may loom larger and faster than their previous planning assumptions.

I think there are also some interesting questions around the rescue package itself.

I currently have no stake in TUI and said here before that I will begin to consider the possibility of buying in this side of the RI if and only if the SP were to drop to 350 or below. In light of the most recent developments I will now almost certainly not invest this side of the RI and may well not after that....but will continue to watch

One small silver lining – the volatility will be good for day traders with the guts to give it a go.

masaimara - why are you so preoccupied with someone occupation. Surely the quality and relevance of their contribution is more important than their job?

AndItsGone –

In response to your statement “…..this is going nowhere……”, I’m afraid I have to agree. You have made a long succession of false and misleading claims about my posts. I have asked you repeatedly to evidence your assertions. You have consistently failed, choosing instead to simply repeat or invent new unfounded criticisms or engage in wild speculation.

I sincerely hope people take the time and trouble to read this exchange from the start. People will quickly conclude that your posts are unreliable and untrustworthy, thin and without substance.

AndItsGone - can i also ask you, please, where i have made threats?

Will you please deal with the issues rather than return again and again to the meaningless

Today at 10:09 today I wrote (quoting in full the post) :

“Hi aspers - yep, it defeats me. This is a watch and wait share. If it drops below 350 pre-RI I'll start to look more carefully, but I've certainly no interest in buying in at anything like these prices. IMO that would be crazy.”

You subsequently challenged my message and use of the word crazy, asserting that I “….make fun of people claiming they have mental health issues for investing in TUI ….”.

Recall that this was made not about buying into TUI more generally, but buying now to profit from the RI. I responded at 13:32 with :

“I most certainly wasn’t mocking and it wasn't my intention to claim that those who bought in at these prices have mental health issues. If you don’t mind me saying, I think that’s a rather weak reading of my post. But if anyone did interpret it that way I do of course apologise. but my challenge to all, that doing so in the hope of making money through the RI is irrational, stands.”

I believe that deals with the matter.

Beyond that, you have failed to direct me to where I can see evidence of “……constant need to throw insults….”. Please do so and tell me where I can find "....50 odd insults....." as you claimed you have (if you are able)

Perhaps with the exception of my post at 19:00 my posts have, been reasoned, reasonable and measured. Some have been longer than others because of the number of wild statements you made that needed to be challenged.

Whether others care to read them or not is entirely their business. I rather hope they do so they can form their own opinion

I have not been trolling. Simply challenging your false allegations, misrepresentations and empty statements, and I have tried to do that politely (again, with the possible exception of 19:00 post).

I reject categorically your view that my posts “…..show you to be a highly emotional person……”. and to put your mind at rest I do not “….spend much of your time shouting at clouds….”

With regards to “…..investing is unlikely to be a good use of your time…..” I suggest how I choose to use my time is my business.

I make no apology for holding you to account for what you have been saying, and I will continue to do so if you persist.

AndItsGone - just for the record, i submitted, I think, 13 posts today including this. Not 10 pages of text as you have claimed unless you are using a very big font.

I think my comments have been entirely respectful; until the point (19:00) where I realised I was dealing with a serial distorter of the truth who couldn't be reasoned with. If I have written reams it is because of the number of inaccurate, false and misleading comments you have made that have needed to be challenged.

Once again, if you wish to point to inconsistencies and insults do please be clear and specific. Please remind me where I said I do not insult people, and where I can find the "50 odd insults"? for simplicity I will give you those in my 19:00 post.

And your point is what precisely?

It was fully my intention to not continue the debate, but you compel me to because you continue to misrepresent me and I will not let that go unchallenged. If you continue to misquote from or distort my posts I will correct the record.

- “Another inconsistency….” Please tell me where else my position has been inconsistent

- Your argument …”Was his last post now we get 3 more” is precisely the one I cautioned masaimara against using because it would demean him. It demeans you to use such a trivial and inconsequential point in a childish attempt dismiss another more substantial one

- Anyone reading this chain will see for themselves that I have not “….diagnosed/insulted anyone buying in over 4 pounds as mentally unwell….” A slur of the worst sort and you should be ashamed of yourself.

- I have not spoken about the calculations “….more slowly so we can all understand…”. Please re-read my post of 17:33 which is categorically not about the calculation. Even at my reduced tempo you could not keep up. I am sorry. It's a shame I can't use crayons to make it clearer.

- You ridicule and dismiss a calculation you appear not to understand (despite its simplicity) as worthless. Santa might send you a calculator if you have been good.

- With respect to the calculation, I did not say toy will get 10% profit. I said you would make of the order of 10% if you buy in now with the intention of profiting from the RI based on the numbers I used. You will note that I also pointed to the risk that the return could easily slip into negative territory.

You are an idiot.

You have done nothing but repeatedly present material and claim statements made by me which you either know to be untrue, or you are so half-witted that you are incapable of distinguishing between my comments and your corruption of them.

I struggle to see anything of value you have brought nothing of value to the discussion. If I were communicating with someone whose IQ was greater than their shoe size I would feel more confident about a meeting of minds. I fear we will not enjoy the pleasure of that.

Robertgleed - Thank you. Makes sense, but too scary for me. Good luck to you.

It was intended to be, and I will say this slowly so the hard of thinking amongst us can keep up.

If you look closely AndItsGone and I both posted messages at the same time 5:26. He presumably pressed the button moments before me and his message appeared ahead of mine.

My message timestamped 5:26 was intended as part of the message timestamped 5:17, correcting a misrepresentation in AndItsGone’s message of 14:40 that I had not corrected previously. Specifically, his claim that I predicted 350. It did not introduce anything new.

I was not responding to his message of 15:26. If I were I might have asked what he thinks I’m loosing, and what he thinks I have been found out doing. I would have pointed to the fact that the numbers weren’t plucked out of thin air and that again his use of the word “crazies” is out of context. But there would be no point in doing so because he has demonstrated that he is incapable of engaging in a mature way.

One think that you and I would agree on is that some posters are worth laughing at. I can name two off the top of my hat.

So you understand, this is of course a response to you not a continuation of my exchange AndItsGone, so please don’t try the nah-nah-na-nah-nah, here he is again line. It will demean you.

sorry - i do just need to add this as a final closing comment on the matter :

- your statement "....Today its going to 3.50 and we should stay away.....". Again, utter rubbish. I did not predict 350. I said that my interest in investing would kick in if it were to move to that. A very different thing.

AndItsGone :

This is going to be my last post on the matter because you clearly can’t engage meaningfully.

- If by high fiving you mean there are some points we agree upon, then guilty as charged.

- The calculation you refer to is not "bizarre" but a very simple one which anyone here should be able to repeat. In my opinion, if you can’t repeat it I suggest you ask yourself if you know enough about RIs to know whether the investment is a good one or not.

- I didn’t say in a month. Actually I said you wouldn’t make that until the RI process had run its course (i.e. when the new shares are available for you to trade) and that will be much more than a month. Do, please, try to keep up.

- And your comment “….i can’t find anything you’ve said so far that looks remotely close to being correct”….I’m sorry that’s the case but maybe it says more about you than me.

- I don’t know aspers, I don’t care if he is a plane driver, a toilet cleaner or a brain surgeon. All I’m interested in is what he has to say.

Even at this stage you cannot resist the temptation to talk utter tosh.