Member Info for LetsTry

TIM1001 - "......Share prices rarely represent the mcap.....".

I don't understand your point.... mcap is the total market value of a company determined by number of shares multiplied by the market price of one share.

Latpulldown – I could challenge a number f your statements but will focus on only one. Specifically “…..Market makers are there to prey in the weakness of those that don't understand…..”

No, market makers are there to make money. Pure and simple.

If people choose to play games they don’t understand and loose as a result they have only themselves to blame. A number of posters have tried to encourage people to familiarise themselves with what’s going on before making decisions. If they act from ignorance and loose as a result they have only themselves to blame. They are self inflicted injuries.

"Don't worry, Rodney. This time next year, we'll be millionaires!" - DelBoy

Colti – agreed. To answer your question, some obvious sources of further emergency funding (which I think TUI may well need) are :

- More borrowing - which would be on eye watering terms given the risk
- Additional government assistance – giving more gvt influence (and their priority won’t be making shareholders rich, that’s for sure)
- A further RI – personally, I can’t see that
- Decommissioning and/or sale of assets – but probably at fire sale prices

None of those will do anything other than wipe more off the SP.

The vaccine has been announced but the gulf between having orders and actually injecting that into arms is now obvious to all. Travel restrictions abound. Holidays cancelled until mid Feb. Spring and probably summer trading likely to well down on planning assumptions when the rescue package was formulated. Not the first time TUI has passed the hat around since the outbreak of Covid and very possibly not the last. Could get a lot worse before it gets better. I’m sure it will survive, but don’t equate survival with protection of shareholder value. I’m not invested at the moment and find myself with those looking to the other side of the RI

Zidane1009. Not advice (I don’t give that, you need to get that from you existing broker and new broker as appropriate) but a thought or two on RIs in general…..

Always wise to tread cautiously, and never more so than if you're thinking of moving broker close to a time critical event. Understand the process and make sure you know and work to the important dates or you could come a cropper.

In general, once a RI is approved a prospectus and timetable are published. These will contain everything you need to know. There will be a specific date on which your entitlement to new shares under the RI will be determined based on the number of shares you hold at that precise instant in time. Miss it and you are not eligible.

If you are thinking about moving broker consider the practical things. Can you get an account set up, funds moved and cleared in time to allow you to buy the shares you need to qualify? Don’t forget that if you do go for it you will need funds available to pay for the new new shares. These funds will also need to be in the right place at the right time and cleared too.

Others here will no doubt be able to add to the above and plug any gaps based on their knowledge and experience.

robertgleed - well done. I guess you made a few quid.

Shame it didn't make the 550 some others were so confident of. One can only imagine that the impact on TUI of unresolved questions about the treatment of seed potatoes in the EU trade agreement weighted heavily on the minds of market makers today.

SAK50 –

I repeat, Biontech do not have doses on the scale you claim. They have a contract to supply. That’s simply not the same. Surely you can see that?

The European Commission is very clear that vaccination will occur throughout the year according to availability and “……the pandemic might be controlled by the end 2021 in Europe….” Their assessment. Their words. Not mine.

You are claiming otherwise, that the European Commission is wrong in its assessment of its own contracts and roll-out plans etc., and that from afar and without access to the information you know better.

Respectfully, given a choice I will take their opinion over yours on the matter. But thank you for sharing it.

signing off for now boys and girls - too much happening to engage in banter.

It won’t surprise you if I say I would be.

Closing price yesterday around 425p. Reaching 550p today requires a 30% jump. News of a trade deal is fantastic news indeed, but TUI’s isn’t going to be much affected by agreement on fisheries and free market access. Fundamentally, TUI's battle is againt COVID and the relative rates of transmission and vaccination.

Logged on today given the news.

I think we agree then. The EU does not have vaccines, they have commercial arrangements with a number of possible suppliers to secure material as an when regulators approve them and suppliers can manufacture them. Entirely different.

Only Pfizer and Modern have thus far submitted, and the EU Commission is very clear about timescales :

“……The distribution will start progressively. This means that in the first few months, there will not be enough doses available to vaccinate all adults. The first doses will go to the priority groups identified by Member States (e.g. healthcare professionals, persons over 60 years of age). Supplies will increase over time, and all adults should be able to get vaccinated during the course of 2021….Depending on the pace of vaccination and natural infections, the pandemic might be controlled by the end 2021 in Europe…..”

some wiggle room in there....note the "should" and "may".

I suggest the UK and EU are therefore in a very similar position.

They do not have stockpiles on that scale, they have procurement agreements in place which is not the same thing. For what it’s worth I am sure that other countries will be ahead of the UK in vaccinating their population but equally I believe the point remains -2021 and especially the first half will be very tough everywhere.

I appreciate that my position as a possible new investor is different to those already in, and with the freedom to walk away at any point and turn my gaze elsewhere it’s probably a lot easier too. Equally, I know some of what I have said may have made for uncomfortable reading for some. But I am certainly not desperate because I have no requirement to invest here and can just as easily put money elsewhere. I am also not talking down TUI, unless by talking down you mean sharing legitimate questions and observations. Quite frankly, it wouldn’t be worth the effort. I don’t think I or any of us here have that sort of power or influence over its future or its SP. I think those who come here to either ramp or deramp are deluding themselves.

But thank you for coming back with a point worth discussing. It’s 18:00 on the day before Christmas Eve. Printer is off. I’ll all done. Can I wish you a Happy Christmas and all the best for 2021. May it bring you all you hope from it.

And don't you think that's whats happening in the UK will be seen elsewhere, and that those countries too will also provide extremely challenging trading environments in the first half of 2021 which is so important to TUI (as it is so many others for that matter)?

I have said before that I think TUI has a number of strengths. But it is facing conditions and circumstances that it has little if any control over.

Then perhaps others without access to one will find it so.

The noose is tightening further on TUI.

Here are some bullets (I won't call them highlights for obvious reasons) from Matt Han****'s speech this pm:

-From Boxing Day, Sussex, Oxfordshire, Suffolk, Norfolk, Cambridgeshire, those parts in Essex not already in tier four, Waverley (Surrey), and Hampshire (including Portsmouth and Southampton but not the New Forest) will to tier four.

- Bristol, Gloucestershire, Somerset (including the North Somerset area), Swindon, the Isle of Wight, the New Forest and Northamptonshire, as well as Cheshire and Warrington, will go to tier three.

- Cornwall and Herefordshire will go to tier two.

- Cases up by 57% over the last week and hospital admissions are at their highest since March/April.

- Two confirmed cases of another new variant have been identified. This strain is, “…….is yet more transmissible and appears to have mutated further than the new virus…..." but with no detail of where it was found, how and how widespread it might already be.

So :

- a new kid on the block (will this one be more dangerous, will the vaccines in the pipeline be effective against it etc. all unanswered and unanswerable until the science is done)

- with larger numbers of infected individuals the rate of appearance of new variants will also increase so expect more to come.

- More restrictions in a couple of days and in all probability steady progression to what will look increasingly like a national lockdown sure to follow over the coming weeks and months.

Anyone still want to argue that the Spring/Summer season trading upon which TUI is so dependent will be good?

error ....should have finised with ......"Short and succinct are not the same. It is entirely possible and sometimes necessary to be succinct and long".

My post addresses a series of points made by another (i.e. it is not a single issue).

Most of the points are made in relatively few lines. (i.e. they are succinct, or relatively so).

Together, the post contains a large number of lines because it addresses a succession of points (i.e. it is long).

Short and succinct are not the same. It is entirely possible and sometimes necessary to be both.

Don't read longer posts if you don't like them, or your life so hectic that you can't devote more than a few moments to an issue. Your choice.

I hope you and others are right. Why doesn’t. But even if identical in every respect other than transmissibility the new strain could overwhelm the NHS. Hence the concern.

We all want travel bans lifted. But how and when? With growing concern over fast testing of asymptiomatic carriers, it may need PCR testing. Not easy to integrate into a high volume travel system.

The WHO is saying nothing new. Darwin opened our eyes to adaption.

Whether the virus is out of control or not is semantics. What’s important is the impact of measures being taken to combat it. In the last review more areas moved from Tier 2 into Tier 3 than moved from 3 into 2 and we have some in Tier 4. Ascending the ladder is easier than descending. People in and entering Tier 4 are not to leave the area they live in let alone fly. TUI’s accessible customer base over the coming months will shrink!

Are you referring to Sir JB’s in early November discussing the Oxford Vaccine and the possible availability of three vaccines in January? Matt Han**** has subsequently said roll out will be limited by vaccine stockpiles. The delivery schedule is not available. Lord Bethell (Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at the Department of Health and Social Care) presumably did know when he told Peers recently that it will take until spring before the high risk group (i.e. not everyone) will be vaccinated. This timeline has been used by the BBC, channel 4 and other media who I assume are well connected and informed. I do not know any recent and reliable source claiming the full UK vaccination programme will be complete by spring without including caveats. The only HSJ article on the subject I know of, reporting that the NHS is planning to start vaccination of under 50s by the end of jan., itself flags dependency on availability of supplies.

To put the challenge into context, 137000 people received their first of two doses of in the first two weeks of the vaccination programme. At that rate it would take more than 180 months (15 years) to deal with the 25m people in the first phase! Clearly it won’t, but it shows how huge the scale up has to be for phase 1 alone.

I am not a day trader, and have little interest in short term share price movements. I have only one questions : should I invest in advance of the RI to take advantage of it? I To repeat my previous illustrative calculation (do your own), if I buy in at 420p, take my full entitlement at 1:1 and 100p, and sell at 300p I could feasibly make a tad under 10%, but with a narrow margin between profit and loss and with significant risk throughout.

You are correct, if the number of shares doubles and the price falls by half mcap remains the same. Equally, to double of mcap the share price after RI would need to return its starting point. I am far less confident than you that TUI can achieve this in just 24 months with the trading environment in the first 12 at least looking so hostile.

I admire your spirit but I’m not sure you can dismiss international response to the new strain as a short lived overreaction or suggest that travel restrictions will be limited.

Preliminary data are encouraging but we cannot yet say with the confidence you imply that the current vaccine is as effective against it and that patient outcomes are no worse. Fingers crossed you are right, but we simply do not know.

Even if you’re correct, the very fact that that the transmissibility is up to 70% greater means it has real potential to totally overwhelm existing provision. That’s precisely why so many countries are so keen to keep it out. Already 40 countries have banned UK arrivals.

No information on vaccine rollout is available. Government has reported only number of doses it intends to buy and has not disclosed the delivery profile. All we know is that government hopes to cover the over 80s and at risk groups by Easter. I don’t think that sets the stage well for a successful spring, and I have my doubts about summer.

One small point. Even if you are right and mcap doubles in two years, the proposed RI is at around 1:1 and so the number of shares in circulation in two years will also be around double the number today……i.e. each share you hold will be worth in two years roughly what they are worth now.