Member Info for LetsTry

I welcome your thoughts.
Like you I am worried that the company aren't saying anything.
No way obvious forward, no sense in getting out now. Just got to sit on the pointy stick and wait.

hi Leem1 - perhaps, but that doesn't explain why. any ideas?

a completely inexplicable drop and an equally inexplicable failure to rise (even very slightly) in a huge global bounce back.

I can't get a feel for this, and for as long as that's the case I can't help worrying about my stake. No point in jumping ship now. Just have to hold on in. But I'm very open to any explanation for what's happening here. However wild or speculative.

MrMath - yes, a shame but on balance just the RNS I was hoping for. Circle the wagons, no unnecessary expenditure, keep an active presence where you can and take full advantage of any and all government support where you can't. Weather the short term storm, survive and brace for sales and profitability come the summer.

Likely to be some profit taking to disrupt the climb but looks to me as if we're heading for 80p and perhaps higher as a stable (but unprofitable in the short term) business. Good. Happy.

Agreed. But frustrating that amid near universal rises in the biggest one day recoveryt since the 1930s, this remains firmly stuck around 14.5p with little or no volume. For goodness sake management, let's see some evidence of some.....(mangagement)

....or is something going on? I lost more than I care to think about in FLYB which was a squalid affair. If nothing is said and the share price remains fixed it is going to be hard to dismiss the possibility of some behind the scenes shenanigans

Hi EmeraldCarrots -

For me the big thing is they are trading!

There has been growing pressure for stiffer measures to control C-19 for a while, and it wasn't obvious that they would even be able to open their doors if a lock-down were to come. Well, it has and they can so that's a real breakthrough. Had they not been trading now we would have been debating whether they could survive at all and if so for how long. What a difference a day makes (got to be a song in there somewhere).

I suspect they will end the week at around 80p now the threat or mothballing stores is lifted. Beyond that they will, I think, stabilise pending a trading statement. But I suspect that will be good and SP will ramp up quickly thereafter.

The reason I think a trading statement will be good is, in addition to everything others people have flagged up, overseas holidays won't happen for many this year. There will be bigger sales of bikes, tents, roof boxes and trailers for cars and all manner of things (which HFD conveniently stock) and preventative maintenance on cars (good old HFD!) for days out and fun filled family camping holidays.

I'm much happier now and think we're going to be ok here.

Hi bunco -

Thanks for the post.

I'm back having parked this for a while. Largely through frustration and inability to say anything sensible because of the near total absence of any useful information in the public domain following the termination (suspension?) of the FSP, the intentions of the holders etc.

That hasn't really changed. And while the rest of the market has been all over the place recently this seems to have become rather settled.

So while I broadly agree with you, the only reason I'm not topping up now at these prices is that it seems to have become stuck in a state of suspended animation. The best way to free things up and get it moving again is, in my opinion, for the Board to give a very clear and unambiguous statement on what they understand to be happening. But there seems to be no appetite

I am delighted with the rise, of course I am. And I hope it continues. But it alone doesn’t prove your point :

The shares, many shares, were oversold and if you look at heat maps for any of the indices you will see a sea of blue. Part (but not all) of the rise is general market sentiment. The agreement confirms the survivability of SPI for some tile to come (we can debate how long, but it is covering previously trodden ground). That too was going to contribute further to the SP rise.

But to put today’s rise into context, we are still a long way short of 130-ish of a few weeks ago and so it is partial recovery of recent losses, not real gains in the commonly understood sense of the word.

To repeat, I am delighted and hope it continues, but two days trading does not prove my thoughts are without foundation.

then very well spotted!

Hi EmeraldCarots - That wasn't there earlier but a very welcome addition. Good. Thanks for sharing.

No RNS, nothing on any of the obvious news channels, nothing on the Halfords website and no mass dumping of shares that I would have expected.

Could well be true - but it might be some specific branches with their own local difficulties rather than a general close-down. I have just emailed investor relations requesting clarification. Will share whatever I receive back......

shut? where did you pick that up from ?

Hi EdGasket - Agreed. I wonder if HFD are just too small to withstand being buffeted around, which is why I think they will go up but in a somewhat unpredictable and untidy manner.

Thanks Volcano - valuable contributions as always.

Frustrating that early gains have been knocked back. I think it will assert itself over the coming hours and days. It seems to me that large part of the drop in share price was (1) general market fears and global devaluation of all and (2) concern that if and when a lock-down came this business would be forced to close its doors, with a risk that it might not re-open them.

With respect to (2).....that uncertainty has now been removed and although there is scope for disagreement on what this means we do now know that it will be open for business. That alone has to be worth an uplift in SP. Probably by fits and starts with regular setbacks, but if there is any rational thinking left it is going up.

Good luck all!

Hi Pokerchips, Forgive me - my postings were sent purely as personal comments and reflections, and to test my thinking. It was never my intention to change the minds of others. We must all do what we think appropriate. But for the record I too will be holding, albeit for longer than I thought when I bought in.

Hi Volcano - that is very welcome indeed, and if successful it will improve the prospects for a full recovery of all those admitted.

However, while it will not change the number of cases.

100not out - read the modelling and listen to the epidemiologists. It is not really a matter of debate. There will be cases until a vaccine is available and that is 12 months or more away.

I invite you to answer the question I posed Pokerchips.

I have already agreed it's oversold and the longer term prospects good.....

The modelling suggests we will still have cases in 12 months or more; albeit and hopefully at a more modest level.

Government has already said it may alternate between strict and weaker controls, and where possible I am sure that they will try to relax them as much as possible subject to keeping them below treatment capacity. That is the very essence of their strategy - to spread a big narrow peak out over time so that the number of people infected may be higher but at no time does it exceed ability to treat current cases.

It is entirely possible that the nation will see recovery but SPI will be held back from being part of it because the termination clause empowers only one side to break the agreement.

sorry, and to complete the previous post with an obvious statement..... in the case of the second option the private hospitals do not, it seems, have the ability to terminate or otherwise opt out of the C-19 agreement and so they are in until the bitter end.