Member Info for LetsTry

no

A coalition of the ruthlessly opportunistic and the (at best) utterly incompetent and contemptible.

Very regrettably and after much soul searching last night, I too am now out.

Good luck to all those who played with a straight bat, unlike those we entrusted to represent our interests as shareholders.

gustavio - honest answer, I don't know and having got this one so wrong I'm not sure any thoughts I have is of any value at the moment.

But many of us were flabbergasted by the 1p offer; and many of those had what seemed like good, well informed and rational arguments for thinking it would turn out differently. Including the big institutional investors who have much better capability to assess these things than small investors such as my self. Just seems odd that we were all so wrong in our assessments doesn't it?

Perhaps the argument being offered is exactly as you say 'There is no better deal on the table.....'. And perhaps the response should be 'no, go and do better or make way for a BOD who can'.

I don't want to open a discussion about Brexit, but by way of analogy isn't that exactly the same argument the PM is going to be offering in the commons tomorrow (there's no other deal) .......... before in all probability being voted being voted down?

Thanks Taverham.

Thanks pianista - helpful as always.

30 % is still a respectable slice. I hope it holds up.

I absolutely respect those who say they are going to sell now at whatever price they can to recover something. But from where I sit the residual value so small as to be irrelevant. I'm going to hold and vote against and hope that i don't find myself in the minority. A gamble, but hasn't it always been so with this one.

Some week ago when SP was high teens, a poster (apologies, can't remember the name) reported that about 50% of the shares were held in only 5 names.

I stress that I didn't corroborate the claim. Didn't really seem that important then.

I don't recall seeing any RNS' since the announcement indicating big institutional holders like the Wellcome trust bailing out over the last couple of days.

So perhaps 50% in the hands of handful of major institutional investors nursing big losses with a 1p offer, but seemingly not rushing to sell, securing shareholder acceptance might not be a foregone conclusion.....or am I just grasping at straws?

Although the BOD support the bid your suggestion that the majority of shareholders do is only speculation.

Any other potential bidder isn't going to rush forward now - better from their perspective to let feelings of gloom and despondency grow in advance of it.

Their only time constraint is that they would need to move before the shareholder vote on the current offer.

This has always been a waiting game, and it remains so. Never has the advice "keep calm and drink tea" been more appropriate.

Bottom line is most shareholders are probably going to come out of this badly, certainly in comparison with hopes of the last weeks and months. But it isn't going to be as bad as it might look now.

At an offer price of 1p I think a counter offer is very likely.

Might not be what many were looking for in value, and at these prices it could come from a quite unexpected quarter, but it will be a clear step up from where we are now.

I wonder how many of those were existing stops rather than conscious decisions to bail out in response to the news....

TigerByTheTail - thank you.

That's my understanding (75% acceptance) but given the comments from some others I was questioning my grasp.

It defies belief that shareholders would vote to accept 1p.

That being so, it's far from over. It could be rejected, a hostile offer at a previously unacceptable price might come in or there may be no sale and the company continues forward under its own steam.

Certainly if this goes forward as an independent there are serious questions over the apparent quality and integrity of the BOD which will need to be addressed in very short order!

A bolt out of the blue to say the least.

Holding back the anger and frustration for a moment, we need to be realistic about what next. In the interests of getting a proper well informed discussion going can someone offer a well informed answer to a points that have been raised already :

- this is cast as an offer. Does it need to go to an ordinary shareholder vote before being enacted?

Agreed - Hold out.

This is an interesting case. Popular perception until relatively recently was that FLYB was in serious trouble and perhaps terminal decline. That mood is changing and those thinking this company will hit the buffers are now very much in the minority.

What it brings into clear focus is the difference between accounting and investing. The former is about looking backwards, and the latter looking forward.

Many of the buy-out valuations of a few tens of pence are based on accounting. We should also ask what think the forward potential is....and what the corresponding SP might be when the transformation programme takes effect, and the changes manifest themselves in the books, profits and possibly even dividends that might flow in the fullness of time.

I am (and if I weren't already would want to be) in here now, even in the absence of any talk of possible buy out.

Those who are surprised are probably the ones who were posting like fury before and are now rarely heard from.

If nothing else it creates less noise and fewer distractions from posts that matter.

Hi Mayfield – another very interesting and well argued post. Thanks on behalf of everyone who takes the time to read and think.

I speculated previously that some form of restructuring and partnership negotiations (rather than costing for a buy out) might well be the explanation for the long delays in any formal announcement. I lack your detailed knowledge and couldn’t comment at that time on what that might look like, but your scenario strikes me as plausible and there is much to like about it.

So far, only Virgin have declared an interest with speculation that others are in the wings.

Assuming for the moment they exist. They are clearly keeping their power dry. Would they respond with a cash offer once they know what they are up against? That could lead to a difficult dilemma – favour a complex deal with demonstrably higher returns on the books a year from now with a correspondingly much higher SP) or grab a lower assured return now?

Mayfield - thank you and much appreciated!

PP - Mayfield is making a very straightforward and sensible point : putting to one side whether they will cost less than they have in the past, these skilled and experienced people will help deliver a more resilient and dependable service upon which the business ultimately depends.

Sometimes you don't do things because you make money on them - you do them because they help protect you from risk and adversity. It's like car or house insurance.....

Agreed - it might make a net contribution to the financial position. But even if not it does something important - bringing these skills in-house breaks a potentially fragile external dependency and reduces risks to future operations. A very positive move.

Sorry to be pedantic but I recall the quote your searching for is "opinions are like arse holes; everyone has one"

the very purpose of this bb is to allow people to share information, views and opinions. If that's not what you are after then you are in the wrong place.

Hi JH77, no, I'm not sure either. And that's my point. Whatever the ideas being considered f(and your's are perfectly feasible) they will require a lot of work and therefore time.

Regarding shares as part of the deal, I agree they wouldn't be Virgin. but they could be a third party. All part of the complexity of valuing a multi-element offer.