Member Info for Leo_IX

Hi Mogger, Boboil,

Thanks for the replies. Just to clarify, Italy has lost three cases under the Energy Charter Treaty, and one of them was under ICSID rules. ARB/16/5 is no.97 on the ECT list and has gone to the annulment committee. The others are under SCC rules and are tied up in the courts.

https://icsid.worldbank.org/cases/case-database/case-detail?CaseNo=ARB/16/5

Hi Boboil

I prefer to judge Italy's chances of paying by its track record. There are only three cases where an award has been made against them (now four) and in no instance has Italy willingly paid up. All three cases are bogged down in national courts, annulment proceedings and/or enforcement actions, despite the awards being rendered years ago. It's just the way they operate.

https://www.energychartertreaty.org/cases/list-of-cases/

I don't think it's the likelihood of being paid that the market is discounting but the timescale involved. Looking at the list of cases on the ICSID website, it seems that most of them end up in front of the annulment committee. While only one award has been overturned by them, it took three years to reach that conclusion. Still, the award will improve the balance sheet while we wait for it become cash in the bank.

https://www.energychartertreaty.org/cases/list-of-cases/

Don't see the point of exercising warrants now if you're an LTH. We know those shares will be available at 9p for the next 16 months, but we don't know how long the market price will be under 15p. Buying in the 10 - 15p range must be the best use of cash in the near term. RKH was a bargain last week at 8p, but it's an absolute gift now at 14.

RKH's compensation case against the Italian government, under the ECT and ICSID is due to be resolved next week (maybe) but began in 2017, so it's a long road to start down with no guarantee of winning. For me, today was when I finally broke even and for some investments that feels like a win, so I'm off. Best of luck if you need to hang on a while longer.

Just tried a dummy buy of 1m shares - 0.52p is the price. Must be a big sell order going through.

Sorry, early November.

Plenty of blame to go round, but for me this is the key point and the reason the share price has plummeted today

"According to the EMA its average processing time fora Certificate of Environmental (CEC) Application requiring an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is 180 working days while that of the Applicant is 220 working days."

44 weeks from 23/12/21 is early October '22. And that's just the average time taken. Heaven forbid it should get complicated.

Sold out after nearly three years for a microscopic profit. 100% up on recent lows and imminent results likely to be accompanied by a cash call imo. Hope to be back in at a lower price, but who knows? Safety first for me after recent carnage.

Thanks for the reply Carefree. I realise they can't raise money below the nominal share value but I'm not so sure they can't create and award shares as part of an incentive plan. You sure about this?

Tip of the hat to Investor Bill for his post of 8/6. Spot on.

"Checked just now and there are 8.1m on offer before you have to negotiate. Unless they're bought up soon we'll be back in the low .60s"

The purpose of the Capital Reorganisation as a whole is to: (i) enable the Company to issue shares in future at an issue price which significantly exceeds their nominal value; and (ii) create a reserve by cancelling the deferred share capital of the Company as well as cancelling the Share Premium Account
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Where does it say this is needed to issue shares under the incentive plan?

Thought that trade might have been a small investor selling out. Thanks for confirming - at least now nobody can say that Nigel Wray is dumping shares.

EVERY investment in the portfolio is extraordinarily weak and falls apart like a cheap suit - which explains the near 50% discount to nav. Not a bargain.
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So how do you explain the NAV if the portfolio companies are so poor? What a ridiculous argument.
Discount is due to fundraising at 25p, placees offloading, market sentiment and delay in Innovative Eyeware IPO. Case closed.

Thanks Tivman - I stand corrected.

Has nobody noticed today's second RNS?
I wasn't too bothered about the placing - it's the quickest and cheapest way for the company to raise money and it was possible to buy today at 26p if you feel you missed out. But we're also selling the family silver - 1% of BELL as well as an oversubscribed placing. Surely we don't need to do both? What's the rationale?

The major shareholders bought the Bank loan when it would have been cheaper to buy the outstanding shares. They didn't buy the outstanding shares. What does that suggest to you?
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The loan had value, the equity was worthless. Subsequent events have borne this out.

I think Lee is correct - they don't seem to be proposing a share consolidation, just a reduction in nominal value enabling more shares to be issued if the price slips under 1p (hardly encouraging). Conversely they are also looking to create a way of returning capital to shareholders in the future. The question is, which do you think will happen first, a fundraise or a dividend? Not much of a question really.

No point expecting VDTK to get a piece of the action, but the EU is planning a massive expansion of residential solar capacity...

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_3131

Hi all. At the risk of looking like I haven't been paying attention, I have a question...

According to Feeks's research, four companies have won contracts with the JTA, but are they complementary technologies or competitors for Guident? Makes all the difference as far as today's announcement is concerned.